Kessel: 7G, 10A, -1, 67SOG

Bozak: 4G, 8A, +4, 21SOG

Kulemin: 7G, 6A, +5, 38SOG

That’s 18 goals, 24 assists and a combined +8 rating, with 126 shots on goal in 17 games.  That works out to 2.5 points per game and 7.4 shots per game.  According to Dobber Hockey, that line specifically has produced 9 of Kulemin’s points, 10 of Bozak’s points, and 11 of Kessel’s points, which still works out to 20 points in 17 games (1.18 ppg).  The question is, how does that compare to other top lines around the NHL?

Using Dobber Hockey’s line production tool, here is how some other lines have produced:

Getzlaf, Perry, and Ryan = 84 points in 62 games (1.35 ppg)

Stamkos, Downie, and St. Louis = 47 points in 40 games (1.18 ppg)

Richards, Neal, and Eriksson = 85 points in about 60 games (1.42 ppg)

So let’s see, they’re not comparable to Getzlaf, Ryan, and Perry, or Richards, Neal and Eriksson just yet.  They do compare favourably to another young line in Stamkos, Downie, and St. Louis though.  I would also like to point out that the amount of ice time the Anaheim and Dallas lines get is significantly higher than the amount the Leafs or Lightning trios do.  The Leafs and Lightning trios see about a 3rd of the even strength ice time for their teams, while the Ducks and Stars lines see closer to 40% of it.  That’s a significant increase in ice time.

Another point that should be relevant is, St. Louis is a former NHL MVP, Richards is a former Conn Smythe and Stanley Cup winner (alongside St. Louis in fact), while Getzlaf and Perry were the top pairing for the Ducks when they won the Stanley Cup.  None of the Leafs have won a major award, and Kessel is the only one of the three to be in the NHL for more than 2 seasons.  That’s significant in this analysis.

Overall I think if the Leaf trio can continue to develop chemistry for the remainder of this season, the team could come into camp next year with a decent idea of who their top 3 forwards are going to be.  Similarly, Caputi, Grabovski, and Stålberg seem to be getting a chance to develop some chemistry also.  Hopefully they produce at a high level also, as their ice time is quite comparable to that of the Bozak, Kessel, and Kulemin line.

Only time will tell how this all develops though.

Luke Schenn: 1A, +3, 3 shots, 2 hits, 22:37 TOI

Dion Phaneuf: even rating, 8 shots, 2 hits, 26:43 TOI

Luca Caputi: 2A, +1, 3 hits, 16:10 TOI

Carl Gunnarsson: +1, 2 hits, 22:46 TOI

Nikolai Kulemin: 1A, even rating, 1 hit, 19:23 TOI

Tyler Bozak: 1G, 1A, +1, 2 hits, 67% FOW, 22:32 TOI

Viktor Stålberg: 2G, +1, 6 shots, 2 hits, 18:17 TOI

Phil Kessel: 1G, 1A, +1, 7 shots, 22:16 TOI

Mikhail Grabovski: 1A, +1, 3 shots, 18:28 TOI

Not bad for a pack of guys who are all within their first 4 years in the NHL, and 25 or younger.  The concerns around the Leafs offense may be fading as the team has produced 8 goals in the past two games.  They’re also getting a fairly balanced attack from the likes of Bozak, Kessel, and Kulemin on the top line, while Stålberg, Caputi and Grabovski provide a threat from line number 2.

Christian Hanson, Rickard Wallin, Jamie Lundmark, and Colton Orr all appear to be thriving in a checking role. John Mitchell and Wayne Primeau also seem reasonably comfortable at the moment.

Carl Gunnarsson improved his team leading +/- rating to +10 on the season.  He is now +7 in his past 5 games, averaging well over 20 minutes in ice time a game.

Mikhail Grabovski is contributing quickly after his return from injury, with 2 assists, and a +3 rating in his first two games back.

In his first 5 games as a Leaf, Luca Caputi is contributing on the score sheet also, with a goal and 3 assists to go along with a +1 rating and 11 shots on goal.  He’s also shown a physical aspect, registering 8 hits in those 5 games.  He also has zero giveaways to go along with 5 takeaways, making him far from a liability from a puck possession perspective.

He’s basically playing a similar role alongside Stålberg and Grabovski to that played by Kulemin alongside Bozak and Kessel.  He goes into the corners to get the puck, and goes to the net while chipping in the occasional goal.  Kulemin’s giveaways and takeaways are a remarkable 17 and 42 respectively.  He obviously works excellently for the Leafs in terms of puck possession.  Bozak is also on the plus side of that equation with 6 giveaways and 14 takeaways.

If you add in the fact that Jamie Lundmark has 1 giveaway and 4 takeaways, while the injured Fredrik Sjostrom has zero giveaways and 3 takeaways, you begin to get a perspective on the Leafs re-dedication to dogged puck pursuit and a determined forecheck.  Even Rickard Wallin contributes only 11 giveaways alongside his 22 takeaways.  The Leafs don’t give the puck up that easily anymore.

Since the trading deadline the Leafs have gained 7 of a possible 10 points, for a .700 point percentage.  Admittedly they have had to push for all of their points in the extra frame of OT or the Shootout, but considering they’re getting results in their favour, that indicates good things for the future.

Their compete levels are extremely high, and they’re taking points away from teams that need them.  Tampa and Boston are both hovering around the 8th and final spot in the East, while Ottawa is currently comfortable, but frankly could use a bit of a cushion as they move into the post season. Their weakest effort happened to come on the road in a hostile environment in Philadelphia, and frankly the Flyers are 7-2-1 in their last 10 due to their physicality and power play.

Their PK has tailed off again a bit recently since the loss of Sjostrom to a shoulder injury.  They have allowed PP goals in each of the past 4 contests.  They are also suffering greatly on the power play, not scoring a goal in the past 7 games, with 30 opportunities over that stretch.  That is more than a bit worrisome given the talent available on the squad.  It’s particularly worrying that Kaberle and Phaneuf haven’t managed a power play point in that length of time.

Phaneuf actually gained his only 2 points as a Leaf on the power play in his first two games.  Both were assists, and he hasn’t gotten a goal yet in blue and white.  He hasn’t registered a point in the last 7 games, and yet he has recorded 23 shots on goal in that span, including his 8 shots against the Lightning tonight.

Overall there are good signs in terms of the development of the team, but there are obviously areas that need some work moving forward.  Hopefully the Leafs keep winning, and the areas of concern improve along the way.  The young kids seem to be putting in a solid effort to do so every game, so I’m going to say at this point I’m pleased with their progress.

Gunnarsson’s shooting percentage is comparable to White’s with the Leafs (6.1% vs. 6.9%) so his goal totals aren’t alarmingly low, he just shoots the puck less often.  Meanwhile his assists per 60 minutes of 0.72 is only slightly inferior to White’s 0.77 with the Leafs.  Basically Gunnarsson is giving you virtually replacement level play for Ian White, for $50,000 less, and another season under contract.

Gunnarsson is an NHL rookie at 23 years old, and he has decent size at 6′2″ and 196 lbs.  Ian White is in his 4th NHL season at 25 years old and is quite a bit smaller at 5′10″ and 191 lbs.

Now, this posting isn’t intended to besmirch the good name of White.  He was a solid soldier on a crappy team, and frankly was one of the most productive Leafs amongst a group of underachievers.  He and Niklas Hagman have a lot to do with why the Leafs now possess Dion Phaneuf.  He is a +9 with Calgary in the 11 games since he arrived, and frankly he has improved their defensive play over Phaneuf quite sizeably.

In particular, White has excelled in his last 3 games, going +4 against Detroit in an important matchup for 8th place, and +8 over the last 3 games.  That being said, he also took two penalties late (one at the end of the 2nd period, and a tripping penalty with 2:45 left in the game).  Either way though, he’s played well.

This posting is more to state that all indications point to Carl Gunnarsson being a comparable piece to the puzzle who is cheaper and a more controllable asset for the Leafs for the foreseeable future.  Ian White is going to command a very sizable pay increase after this season, while Gunnarsson won’t for at least another year.  White is eligible for arbitration, Gunnarsson won’t be when his contract expires.

No matter what, from a cap perspective, the exchange of White for Gunnarsson in the line up is a positive for the Leafs if he can maintain his current level of play for the foreseeable future.  With his 1 goal, +3 night against the Bruins, it looks like he might be capable of doing so.

According to Behind the Net’s statistics, Kulemin has taken 1 penalty this season, and drawn 19, which is good for a ratio of 0.05 (lower numbers would be better).  By way of comparison, Ponikarovsky has taken 15 and drawn 9.  The statistic excludes coincidental minors, which explains the discrepancy between the number of minor penalties recorded by the NHL and those taken by the players.

Just to illustrate how unique and impressive that ratio of 1 taken to 19 drawn is, here are the top players with comparable numbers from other teams, along with a few honourable mentions:

Dan Sexton (ANA): 2 Taken, 8 Drawn - 0.25

*Honourable Mention to Bobby Ryan (ANA): 7 Taken, 20 Drawn - 0.35*

Bryan Little (ATL): 3 Taken, 16 Drawn - 0.19

Michael Ryder (BOS): 4 Taken, 11 Drawn - 0.36

Mike Grier (BUF): 3 Taken, 11 Drawn - 0.27

Brandon Sutter (CAR): 0 Taken, 14 Drawn - 0.00

R.J. Umberger (CBJ): 6  Taken, 17 Drawn - 0.35

Niklas Hagman (CGY): 5 Taken, 24 Drawn - 0.21

Patrick Kane (CHI): 6 Taken, 23 Drawn - 0.26

Matt Duchene (COL): 5 Taken, 16 Drawn - 0.31

Jere Lehtinen (DAL): 1 Taken, 10 Drawn - 0.10

Pavel Datsyuk (DET): 3 Taken, 23 Drawn - 0.13

Andrew Cogliano (EDM): 3 Taken, 14 Drawn - 0.21

Radek Dvorak (FLA): 4 Taken, 10 Drawn - 0.40

Brad Richardson (LAK): 6 Taken, 14 Drawn - 0.43

Andrew Ebbett (MIN): 2 Taken, 11 Drawn - 0.18

Sergei Kostitsyn (MTL): 2 Taken, 8 Drawn - 0.25

Zach Parise (NJD): 8 Taken, 28 Drawn - 0.29

Jordin Tootoo (NSH): 2 Taken, 14 Drawn - 0.14

John Tavares (NYI): 3 Taken, 11 Drawn - 0.27

Ryan Callahan (NYR): 8 Taken, 17 Drawn - 0.47

Milan Michalek (OTT): 1 Taken, 13 Drawn - 0.08

Claude Giroux (PHI): 6 Taken, 14 Drawn - 0.43

Peter Prucha (PHX): 5 Taken, 21 Drawn - 0.24

Jordan Staal (PIT): 7 Taken, 16 Drawn - 0.44

Joe Pavelski (SJS): 3 Taken, 14 Drawn - 0.21

*Honourable Mention to Devin Setoguchi (SJS): 4 Taken and 15 Drawn - 0.27*

Andy MacDonald (STL): 5 Taken, 11 Drawn - 0.45

Martin St. Louis (TBL): 5 Taken, 19 Drawn - 0.26

*Honourable Mention to Mikhail Grabovski (TOR): 2 Taken, 13 Drawn - 0.15*

*Honourable Mention to Phil Kessel (TOR): 2 Taken, 11 Drawn - 0.18*

Ryan Kesler (VAN): 12 Taken, 30 Drawn - 0.40

Eric Fehr (WSH): 5 Taken, 12 Drawn - 0.42

That’s the top 33 players in the NHL, and Kulemin has the second best ratio, with only Brandon Sutter bettering his number.  That list incorporates an interesting mix of players.  Generally speaking they are all diligent, quick, defensively responsible players, and surprisingly a number of them have a physical aspect to their game.

What I find most interesting from the list is the number that have been identified by Brian Burke or coached by Ron Wilson.  Kulemin, Ryan, Kesler, Ebbett, Kessel, Grabovski, MacDonald, Tavares, Kane, Callahan, Pavelski, and Parise have all played roles on teams built by Burke, be it the Anaheim Ducks, the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Vancouver Canucks, or the US Olympic team.  As for Wilson, the Olympic team link can be found in Kesler, Ryan, Kessel, Parise, Callahan, Kane, and Pavelski, and the Leafs links can be found in Kulemin, Grabovski, Kessel, and Hagman.  When you add in the San Jose Sharks that Wilson coached along with Pavelski - Grier, Setoguchi, and Michalek, you begin to recognize a trend in the type of players Burke and Wilson are identifying they need to build teams around.

Fast, forechecking players, that play a clean all around defensive game.  Kulemin fits that mold to a tee, and I have little doubt that Burke and Wilson are exceedingly happy at his development so far this season from an all around perspective.  He hits hard, he drives to the net, and he does so without making a lot of stupid mistakes on the ice.

The fact is Grabovski, Kessel, and Kulemin are all drawing penalties.  Add in the fact that Bozak is off to an ok start with 1 Taken and 3 Drawn, and you begin to see why Burke is interested in those players.  In a nod to ex-Leafs Jason Blake and Niklas Hagman, I would like to point out that they both worked diligently on the forecheck, and skated well, often drawing penalties from the opposition.

If the Leafs can continue playing this style of game, and get their power play off the ground, they’ll be in pretty decent shape longer term.

Against Philadelphia on Sunday night, it appeared more to be a role of taking idiotic penalties as often as possible to put his team down by a man (or two men even) over and over again.  Let’s remember a few things here.  First, the Leafs best penalty killer was out with an injury following his shoulder being hurt in the Ottawa game. Second, the team was playing the second of back to back road games, and the first game went to a shoot out.  Going onto the PK repeatedly when you’re likely to be tired in the last half of the game is amazingly dumb.  Doing so against the team with one of the best power plays in the NHL is even more stupid.

Yes the Leafs made it out of the first period against Philadelphia only down by a goal. Yes they tied it up early on in the second, unfortunately that didn’t last long, and by the end of the game there wasn’t enough jump to keep up with a physical Flyers side.

The PK has now allowed goals in consecutive games, although missing Sjostrom likely has something to do with that.  It is still an impressive 31 for 34 since January 20th though, which is good for a 91.18% kill rate.  They’re getting better overall, and goaltending stability also helps with that a lot.

Nikolai Kulemin was a physical force yet again, and he seems to be figuring out his role in the NHL.  He recorded another breakaway chance, and scored the Leafs lone goal against the Flyers on another nice play in front of the net.  Hopefully the definition in his mind of what he’s supposed to do on the Leafs top line is fitting in more appropriately.

21.74% of Kulemin’s scoring (5 points) has occurred while playing with Bozak and Kessel, and yet he has only played 11.76% of his shifts with those two on a top line.  His scoring with Bozak and Kessel has almost doubled over his rates with Wayne Primeau and Lee Stempniak whom he played with predominantly during the first half of the season.

In his 14 games skating alongside Bozak and Kessel, he has recorded 4 goals and 3 assists for 7 points, an even rating, and a total of 32 shots.  There was a 5 game hiatus during February following the trade of Stajan and Hagman, where Kulemin was replaced with Ponikarovsky on the line with Bozak and Kessel.

What that stretch of play indicates to me though is that he rather than producing a meager 12 goals and 11 assists for 23 points through the 61 games he’s played this year (0.38 ppg), he could easily be hovering closer to 0.5 points per game, and producing around 15 to 20 goals at this point.  If he maintains his current scoring pace, he looks to be on track for a 16 goal, 14 assist, 30 point season, which is relatively comparable to his production alongside Grabovski last year.

It will be interesting to see what sort of line up changes are made when Grabovski returns from injury, as the player he is most familiar with as a winger remaining on the club is now Kulemin.  Personally I think slotting Grabovski in alongside Stalberg, and Caputi makes sense, but we’ll see how Wilson tinkers with his line up.

In goal, J.S. Giguere has looked quite shaky in 4 of his last 5 outings. He wasn’t spectacular by any means against the Flyers, and in fact was saved by a goal post, and an offside call, making his night look slightly more stable than it was.  He hasn’t won a game since garnering shut outs in his first two games as a Leaf, so hopefully that turns around sooner rather than later.

Next up for the Leafs is a rematch with Boston on Tuesday back home in Toronto.  Hopefully this one swings the way of the younger Leafs.

What is relevant (or should be) to Leaf fans right now is that the Leafs are getting younger, and they’re trending in the right direction talent wise.  Phil Kessel didn’t score any goals, but he had a breakaway and at least two other glorious scoring chances for the Leafs before getting a chance in the shoot out. He was stymied consistently by Tim Thomas, but so were a number of other Leafs. Viktor Stålberg, Fredrik Sjostrom, Nikolai Kulemin, and Dion Phaneuf were stopped on full or partial breakaways.  Luca Caputi set up a pretty play by Kulemin and Bozak to produce the Leafs 2nd goal, and Stålberg blew down the wing to fire a puck past Thomas to open the Leafs scoring.  Most of the offensive production from the Leafs came from the sticks of players 24 or younger.

In terms of scoring chances, I would easily have rated the game in favour of the Leafs, despite the fact that Boston had a number of near misses of their own, including a Lucic puck that slid past the far post, and a Savard shot that clanged off the iron of an open net.  Boston did actually out shoot the Leafs 31 to 26 though, so despite some shaky play, J.S. Giguere’s numbers improved again, with a .935 SV% and 1.85 GAA on the evening.

The Leafs PK continued it’s solid stretch since the major trades with Calgary and Anaheim, as the additions of Sjostrom and Giguere have made a significant impact.  Rickard Wallin and Sjostrom seem to be developing some chemistry on the penalty kill, and the Leafs have killed off 23 of their last 24 short handed situations (95.8%), as well as all 13 in their past 5 games.  The team is still last in the NHL with a 72.2% PK rate, but over the solid stretch, they have improved from 69.2%.  The unfortunate thing for the Leafs is, they really don’t take that many penalties.  They are 8th in the NHL in fewest short handed situations with 219, but they’ve allowed the most goals during those situations with 61.

Luca Caputi looked solid in his first game in Blue and White, producing some decent play in the offensive zone, and even having his first scoring chance (which he passed up, looking for the pass instead).  Eventually he’ll probably figure out that he should try to bury those chances when he gets them.  Overall he was fairly impressive.

Jamie Lundmark played another very solid and workmanlike game alongside the Swedish duo of Sjostrom and Wallin.  That line was probably the Leafs most consistent on the evening, with their regular dogged pursuit of the puck producing a few solid scoring chances, and generally giving the Bruins fits.

Nikolai Kulemin returned to his most productive position of the season on the first line alongside Bozak and Kessel, and the line produced the tying goal, and numerous scoring chances.  If that trio is allowed to grow together for the remainder of the season, I have a feeling they’ll put up some points.

Viktor Stålberg, Christian Hanson, and John Mitchell all showed some decent skill at points, but they all need to continue to work on their consistency at the NHL level.  They all possess a fair amount of speed and size, so hopefully they’ll realize that if they use it on a consistent basis, they’ll be reasonably difficult to stop in the NHL.  Even if all they do is mimic the game of ex-Leaf Chad Kilger, I think most Leaf fans would be fine with that in the short term.  Stålberg has the greatest offensive potential of the trio, and if he uses his speed and shot more effectively his talent should raise him up to a top 6 role on the team.  There remains some competition for spots though amongst the younger players, so he’s going to have to work at it.

Defensively, Jeff Finger saw his first game action in a while now that Garnet Exelby isn’t being shopped around the NHL.  He played a relatively quiet game, and frankly looked decent on the ice.  Luke Schenn and Carl Gunnarsson both played reasonably well, and Dion Phaneuf was physical despite making some miscues with the puck in his own end.

The veteran presence of Francois Beauchemin was welcome, but Tomas Kaberle made more than one mistake in this game, and frankly looked out of sorts.  Perhaps it was the trade deadline, or maybe he just didn’t like being nailed by Steve Begin, but whatever it is that screwed up his night, he didn’t play a very good game.  Hopefully he can regain his pre-Olympic form in a quick period of time.

Despite the negative of another loss, at least the young Leafs picked up another point, and they can build from some things they did right against the Bruins.  Next up are back to back road games against Ottawa on Saturday, and Philadelphia on Sunday night.  This will test the mettle of a young Leafs club, and will likely give Jonas Gustavsson his first action in goal since the trade that brought in Giguere.  Here’s hoping they can keep their heads above water.

Well I’m relatively certain that Wilson and Burke have staved off the idiotic mainstream media in Toronto for the near term with the great showing by the American squad at the Olympics.  The US obviously was competitive at a very high level, and they were easily the second best team at the tournament.  Ron Wilson prepared his troops well, and there was little that could be said to besmirch his ability as a top end coach at this level.

Brian Burke also obviously knows how to put together a competitive team, and Leaf fans should relax a tad knowing that he’s at the helm.  It likely hurts a lot that Burke has recently lost his youngest son, as well as the Gold Medal, but overall, he should be proud of the American performance in Men’s Hockey at the Vancouver 2010 Olympics.

So what are the Leafs likely to do come Wednesday (trade deadline day for those of you who aren’t paying close attention)?  Well, they still possess expiring UFA contracts in Alexei Ponikarovsky, Lee Stempniak, and Garnet Exelby, as well as RFA’s such as John Mitchell, Nikolai Kulemin, and Jonas Gustavsson.  I personally am of the opinion that they will move the UFA’s before they even consider moving any of the RFA’s.

According to Sportsnet, Brian Burke and the Leafs are on the verge of moving Ponikarovsky to the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for prospect Luca Caputi.  The deal hinges upon the Penguins clearing some cap space in order to add Ponikarovsky’s $2.105 million deal.  Caputi is a 21 year old product of the Mississauga Ice Dogs, who grew up in the Toronto area.  He’s 6′2, 184 lbs, and he plays with an edge (according to hockeydb.com he is only 6′3″ and 200 lbs, so there is some variation depending on the source cited).  He was drafted in the 4th round, 111th overall in 2007, and he’ll likely end up as a 2nd liner in the NHL.  His game is relatively similar to that of Christian Hanson, only he plays LW.  This year in the AHL with Pittsburgh’s affiliate Wilkes-Barre Scranton, he has registered 23 goals and 24 assists for 47 points in 54 games.  He has also racked up 61 penalty minutes, and a -2 rating. 11 of his goals have come on the power play, and he is developing fairly well at the AHL level.

It should be noted that Caputi outscored Steven Stamkos and Cody Hodgson in the same draft year, so his level of play in the OHL shouldn’t be ignored.  He ended up 4th in the OHL in scoring, with 50 goals and 61 assists for 111 points, as well as 107 penalty minutes, indicating the nasty side to his game.

According to reports on TSN, as well as NHL staff writers, the deal also includes Defenseman Martin Skoula.  Skoula is an UFA following this season, and is earning $750,000 this year.  He’s a veteran of 10 NHL seasons, and had played a remarkably high number of games prior to this season.  Entering this year he had missed 14 total games in 9 NHL seasons.  He’s a defensive D man who should provide some stability on the back end for the Leafs.  It might also indicate the Leafs plan on moving Garnet Exelby at the deadline.

So what other teams are likely to be dealing at the deadline?  Well, Chicago still has to free up cap space for next year, Philadelphia needs a goalie now that Ray Emery is gone for the season with hip surgery, Los Angeles would probably like to improve their chances in the playoffs, San Jose isn’t getting any younger, Pittsburgh could likely use an upgrade on the wing *and they got one in Ponikarovsky*, Detroit might want to make a push, Boston needs scoring, the Rangers are re-mixing everything, and who knows what the rest of the NHL is doing.

Those are just some possible destinations, but I’m honestly not sure how this all shakes out.  The Leafs have added Jamie Lundmark off waivers from the Calgary Flames.  Mike Komisarek has shut himself down for the season with shoulder surgery.  That means more ice time for the development of Luke Schenn and Carl Gunnarsson for the remainder of this season.

Unfortunately newly acquired prospect Keith Aulie has also been shut down for the remainder of the year with shoulder surgery.  That means he won’t be getting called up for a shot in the NHL until next season at the earliest.

Christian Hanson and Viktor Stålberg both returned to the Marlies during the Olympic break, getting some further game action in which to hone their craft as future big bodies for the Leafs.  Stålberg posted a goal and 3 assists over his most recent 8 game stretch with the baby Leafs, while Hanson went cold and only recorded 2 assists (both of which came in a single game).

Their impact will need to be larger going forward, but this is their first full season as professionals, and they may be running out of gas.  They’re getting up towards the 48 game mark, which roughly matches the highest number of games they will have played in the NCAA.  The distinction is, there’s still around 20 games left on the AHL/NHL season.  Hopefully they can find their legs and keep contributing.

The Leafs are now the youngest team in the NHL, and they finally have solid goaltending in Giguere that is required to back up the mistakes that are bound to happen when a young team takes to the ice.  The Leafs play a decent all around game, but they mess up pretty regularly, and they need a top stopper to compensate for those miscues.

Since joining the Leafs, Giguere has lowered his GAA from 2.91 to 2.84 in only 3 starts, two of which were shutouts.  He has raised his save percentage from .900 to .908, and he has helped solidify the Leafs penalty kill in the process.

Fredrik Sjostrom did not play against the Sharks due to illness last night, but since joining the Leafs, he hasn’t been on the ice for a power play goal against, despite averaging 2:45 in short handed ice time a game, highest amongst Leaf forwards.

Dion Phaneuf has registered 17 hits in only 4 games as a Leaf, giving him an average of 4.25 per game, which would give him over 100 hits more than the next closest player on the team if he kept up that rate all season long.  Obviously he isn’t likely to keep that pace up forever, but he has 142 hits on the season now, which is roughly 30 more than the next closest Leaf, and ranks 27th in the NHL.  Phaneuf also has 12 shots in 4 games, giving him 150 on the season, which would rank him third on the club behind Phil Kessel and Lee Stempniak.  He obviously has no qualms about pulling the trigger from the point.

In reality though, while the trades made the Leafs better in key areas, it may be a matter of addition by subtraction, allowing younger prospects the opportunity to see more ice time and participate more completely in the everyday operations of the club.  Tyler Bozak, Carl Gunnarsson, Luke Schenn, Christian Hanson, Viktor Stålberg, and even Nazem Kadri have gotten more of an opportunity now that some of the incumbents have left.

Tyler Bozak has been one of the most obviously important players since the dealing of Stajan finally cemented his role on the top line alongside Phil Kessel.  In the 4 games since the trade, Bozak has 2 goals and 3 assists for 5 points, along with a +2 rating.  Going back further, Phil Kessel has registered 19 points in his last 15 games, scoring 7 goals and 12 assists.  Alexei Ponikarovsky has also been showcased on that top line recently, and he has registered 12 points in his last 11 games, scoring 4 goals and 8 assists.

Kessel has produced 0.85 points per game, which ranks him 10th in the NHL amongst right wingers, immediately behind Rick Nash (0.90) and Jarome Iginla (0.88).  He has 21 goals in 48 games, which would pro-rate to a 36 goal season over the course of an 82 game schedule.  He also has 20 assists, which would work out to 34 over the course of a full year.  Basically what this means is the Phil Kessel that the Leafs have seen this year, who hasn’t had a full training camp to get into shape, and who has played with a bunch of centres that had pundits worried who would get him the puck, is producing points at the same rate that he did with Marc Savard in Boston last season.

In comparison to other goal scorers around the NHL, Kessel is the 13th most dangerous, scoring 0.44 goals per game.  The players ahead of him in order are: Ovechkin, Crosby, Marleau, Gaborik, Kovalchuk, Stamkos, Heatley, Semin, Cammalleri, Kopitar, Knuble, and Parise.  The only players on the list that are 22 or younger are Crosby, Stamkos, Kopitar, and Kessel.  Kessel is making less money than every player on that list other than Semin, Knuble, Parise, and Stamkos.  I would argue that he is a larger contributor than Semin and Knuble (mainly due to the fact that they play for Washington along with Ovechkin, Backstrom, and Green - amongst others).  So basically his $5.4 million cap hit, and the high trade cost it took to get him, doesn’t particularly look out of whack at this point.  If anything, it could be anticipated that his numbers will improve next season, which bodes well for the Leafs in the future.

*Savard has been injured for roughly half of this year, but his 19 assists in 34 games translates to a 45 assist season over the full 82 game schedule.  Last year with Kessel he registered 63 assists.  Kind of makes you wonder if Marc Savard has more been a product of playing with the likes of Kessel and Kovalchuk over the years.*

Luke Schenn and Carl Gunnarsson have stepped up their defensive play fairly substantially in the wake of the trading of Ian White and the shutting down of Mike Komisarek for the remainder of the year due to shoulder surgery.  Since the trade Schenn has registered the first two goal, three point night of his career, going plus four against the Senators in a 5-0 win last Saturday.  Gunnarsson was +3 in the same game, and has regularly been skating over 20 minutes a night for most of the season.  Gunnarsson now sits at +4 on the season, while Schenn is currently +3.

The Leafs as a team have gone 2-2-0 since the trade, but their power play has gone 5 for 17 (29.4%), their penalty kill has allowed 1 goal in 11 short handed situations (90.9%). Their offense has put up 29.25 shots per game in scoring 3.25 goals per game, while the defense has allowed 28.5 shots per game and surrendered 1.75 goals against per game.  In the two losses they have gone down to the New Jersey Devils and San Jose Sharks, who were backstopped by Martin Brodeur and Evgeni Nabokov, both of whom will likely be starting for their nations at the Olympics in a little more than a week.

If Giguere can keep up his solid work, and the Leafs can continue to produce on the power play and get some stops on the PK, they should be in decent shape for the remainder of this season.  I sincerely doubt their run of solid play will continue without any bumps in the road, especially if they trade away Ponikarovsky and Stempniak at the deadline.  If they re-sign those two for a reasonable cap hit, then they may continue to play on the Leafs for the foreseeable future, but for the good of the franchise’s growth and development it may be time for  them to part ways.

Should Ponikarovsky be dealt, I expect Nikolai Kulemin will return to the top line, while Stålberg’s recall would be made permanent.  If Stempniak leaves, then Jay Rosehill and Andre Deveaux may both find regular time in the lineup.  If Garnet Exelby is dealt, then Keith Aulie or Phil Oreskovic is likely to see some time with the Leafs at the end of the year.  All this speculation makes for interesting times in Leaf land, and frankly makes the end of the season worth watching.

Dion Phanuef was skating with Francois Beauchemin and joined Tomas Kaberle on the top pairing for the PP, at various points in yesterday’s practice. Meanwhile Fredrik Sjostrom was skating on a line alongside Rickard Wallin and Nikolai Kulemin, while the Leafs focused their offensive tools on a top line that saw Alexei Ponikarovsky join Tyler Bozak and Phil Kessel.  Lee Stempniak skated along with John Mitchell and the out of place Jeff Finger, who will likely be replaced with Christian Hanson before tomorrow night’s game.

That leaves Wayne Primeau, Colton Orr, and Jay Rosehill on the 4th line for the Leafs and the remaining D were Luke Schenn, Carl Gunnarsson, and Garnet Exelby.

The Leafs face a Devils squad that was led by Zach Parise and Travis Zajac to victory slightly less than a week ago.  Hopefully new starting goalie J.S. Giguere can channel some of his Conn Smythe magic in facing down the team he won that trophy against eons ago.  Jonas Gustavsson will be the backup for the rest of the season, eventually alternating starts after the Olympic Break when the schedule condenses more.

I don’t honestly expect the Leafs lines to remain the way they are long term.  Viktor Stålberg will likely be called up eventually, and I doubt Wallin and Mitchell will impress much with an increased opportunity on the offensive side of things.  I also see Lee Stempniak playing an increased role in the short term.  It is entirely possible that Stempniak and Ponikarovsky are dealt in the near future though, unless either one or both agrees to a reasonable contract.

The closing part of this year is basically an extended try out for the next season.  The key will not be winning games or shooting for the playoffs, so much as improving the defensive game, and playing competitive hockey.  I’m now looking forward to the game I’m going to see in March much more than I was previously.  There’s a new direction in Leaf land, and I’m curious to see where it takes things.

On another note, the Calgary Flames played the Philadelphia Flyers last night, and all 4 former Leafs were in the line up.  Stajan centred Iginla, and Hagman lined up with potential Ranger and fellow Finn Olli Jokinen.  Ian White was in the top pairing with Robyn Regehr, and Jamal Mayers was a 4th liner yet again.  I wish the former Leafs all the best, and expect them to be competitive.  That being said, I don’t particularly see the Flames excelling with the pieces they picked up.  Aside from cap space I’m not sure they’ve gained much.

Earlier today, Brian Burke, Dave Nonis, et al pulled the trigger on two large moves that change the face of the Leafs franchise for the foreseeable future.  Outgoing are career Leafs Matt Stajan and Ian White, as well as more recent free agent acquisitions Niklas Hagman, Jamal Mayers, Jason Blake, and Vesa Toskala.  In return the Leafs have obtained Dion Phaneuf, Fredrik Sjostrom, and Keith Aulie from the Calgary Flames and J.S. Giguere from the Anaheim Ducks.

In my last posting, I listed 11 things the Leafs have, and 5 things they badly needed.  Of the 11, the only one they “gave up” was their top 4 RFA D man Ian White.  Of the 5 things they badly needed, they addressed 2 and a half of them.  They improved the offensive D man role by grabbing a potential future Norris candidate in Phaneuf; they got a speedy checking line winger in Sjostrom (that’s the 1/2 issue); and they grabbed a 1A goalie in Giguere.

I’d say that’s a pretty good job on Brian Burke’s part.  Now they just need to add a scoring power forward on the wings, and some time for all these younger players to develop, and they could be a pretty awesome Brian Burke team in the not to distant future (3 or 4 years).

Phaneuf is a former World Juniors stalwart, and WHL phenom that rocketed into the Flames line up after a ridiculously strong career with the Red Deer Rebels.   He was selected 9th overall by the Flames in the 2003 entry draft, and joined the NHL for the 2005-06 season, making his way onto the 1st NHL All-Rookie team that season while scoring 20 goals and 29 assists for 49 points and a +5 rating.  In his second and third years in the league his point totals climbed to first 50 and then 60 points while he scored 17 goals in both seasons, and added an increasing assist total.  His +/- rating also improved to +10, and then +12 by his third year in the NHL.  He also added a larger level of grit to his game, registering 182 penalty minutes in his 3rd year in the NHL.   He was named to the Western Conference All-Star teams in both the 2007, and 2008 years, and made the NHL 1st All-Star team in 2007-08.  He was one of the Super Stars of the game.

Then the wheels fell off a bit last year, as his defensive game imploded a tad.  He was on the ice for more goals against than any player in the NHL in 2008-09 (122), and his offensive game declined as he only produced 11 goals and 47 points in registering a -11 rating.  This year his goal totals are back up to 10 in 55 games, but he only has 12 assists all year.  A lot of that may have to do with a reduced role due to the introduction of Jay Bouwmeester on the blue line as a big minute man.  Additionally, Mark Giordano has grown to become a larger offensive presence on the team, and Phaneuf has appeared to lose his way in the long slide of the Flames to mediocrity halfway through this season.

A change of location may do him some good, though he needs a lot of work on the defensive end, though so far this year he has a +3 rating to go along with his 22 points.  He has also been on the ice for far fewer goals against this season than he was last season, so far only being on board for 54 goals against.  That pro-rates to only 81 or so over a full season, which is 41 less than all of last year.  He also has been on the ice for 69 goals this year, which pro-rates to 103 goals for.  Last year he was on the ice for 139 goals by the Flames… so the offense has tailed off a bit.

By way of comparison, Ian White who is heading the other way has been on the ice for 60 goals for, and 64 goals against this year… fewer goals for, and more goals against… so Phaneuf appears superior in both categories (although goaltending likely has a lot to do with that).

In addition to Phaneuf, the Leafs are obtaining the rights to another World Juniors defenseman in Keith Aulie.  Selected in the 4th round, 116th overall in 2007, Aulie is a physical defensive D-man who should, along with Schenn, Komisarek, and Beauchemin, make the Leafs amazingly tough to score on in a couple of years.  He’s only 20 years old, a few months older than Schenn, and he will likely remain with the Marlies for the remainder of the season.

Sjostrom is a checking Right Winger that was drafted in the 1st round by Phoenix, 11th overall in 2001.  He’s 6′1″ and 218 lbs, and he’s played a checking role for the past 8 years in the NHL and AHL.  The Leafs are his 4th organization, after stops in Phoenix, New York (Rangers), and Calgary.  Burke likely has his eye set on Sjostrom filling a similar role to the one that the likes of Todd Marchant and Samuel Pahlsson did in Anaheim: a shut down defensive forward, that can skate with anyone in the NHL.  He’s a solid penalty killer with speed and size, which should help the Leafs PK improve.  His defensive responsibility compares to that of the outgoing Niklas Hagman, but his offensive responsibilities won’t get in the way of his checking role.

J.S. Giguere’s numbers have declined in the past few seasons as he’s lost his starters role with Anaheim to Jonas Hiller (who signed an $18 million dollar extension yesterday).  A 13th overall pick by the Hartford Whalers, Giguere won the Stanley Cup with Burke and the Ducks in 2006-07 and was named the Conn Smythe trophy winner in 2002-03 in a losing cause.  Currently he has a .900 save percentage and a 3.14 GAA in a backup role.

Considering his salary, and relationship with Burke and Francois Allaire, it can be assumed that Giguere will be mentoring Jonas Gustavsson and will likely be filling the void of starter heading into the remainder of this season.  He will likely relish the opportunity to reaffirm himself as a top end goalie, so it should be interesting to see how he plays in the lights of Toronto.

So where are the Leafs at this point? Well here are their lines, with the inclusion of the injured Grabovski and Komisarek for the sake of longer term thought:

L1: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak, Nikolai Kulemin

L2: Lee Stempniak, Mikhail Grabovski, Alexei Ponikarovsky

L3: Fredrik Sojstrom, John Mitchell, Rickard Wallin

L4: Colton Orr, Wayne Primeau, Jay Rosehill

D1: Tomas Kaberle, Mike Komisarek

D2: Dion Phaneuf, Francois Beauchemin

D3: Luke Schenn, Carl Gunnarsson

G1: J.S. Giguere

G2: Jonas Gustavsson

The Leafs are likely to make more moves at the deadline, as Lee Stempniak, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Rickard Wallin, and John Mitchell are all free agents at season’s end.  Christian Hanson and Viktor Stålberg are still waiting in the wings with the Marlies, and they will likely be called up for rotation into the lineup.  While Grabovski remains out, it is quite likely that Stålberg will play with Ponikarovsky and Wallin, while Stempniak plays with Sjostrom and Mitchell.  These lines are completely made up on my part aside from L1, and D1, so don’t take them as gospel.

So what do the Leafs still need now that they have more star power on the back end and more room on the front end?  Well, consistency would be nice.  Starting in goal, if Giguere and Gustavsson can provide consistent starting goaltending, and the D can provide a consistent level of grit, the back end should be shored up slightly.

They’ve lost scoring up front in Hagman, Blake, and Stajan.  They’ll get some back in Grabovski, and hopefully with more opportunity, Wallin steps up to the plate, while Kulemin continues to improve.  Stålberg, Hanson, and Mitchell are all going to get their shot to thrive also.

Toronto is now the youngest team in the NHL, and frankly I expect them to continue to play poorly.  This is sort of blender mode, and don’t expect Wilson to settle anything for a week or two at least.  Some of the pieces here now, aren’t likely to be in a year… adjustment is still the name of the game.  The only players we can count on seeing in the foreseeable future as of now are Phaneuf, Aulie, Komisarek, Beauchemin, Schenn, and Gunnarsson on the blue line.  Up front we should expect to see Kessel, Kulemin, Bozak, Hanson, Grabovski, Primeau, Orr, and Sjostrom with regularity.  The rest is sort of up in the air.

If Kessel, Stempniak, Grabovski, Kulemin and Ponikarovsky can continue to score, then things should be ok in the near term from a competitive stand point.  Things just got a lot more interesting in Toronto for the rest of the year though, and that’s a bonus no matter how all of this works out.