Burke “Open For Business”
February 1st, 2010 by SteveSo it looks like we finally have a new Maple Leafs squad. I’m not sure it’s the one we envisioned Brian Burke cobbling together slowly through the draft, but it certainly isn’t the one he took over halfway through last season from Cliff Fletcher.
Earlier today, Brian Burke, Dave Nonis, et al pulled the trigger on two large moves that change the face of the Leafs franchise for the foreseeable future. Outgoing are career Leafs Matt Stajan and Ian White, as well as more recent free agent acquisitions Niklas Hagman, Jamal Mayers, Jason Blake, and Vesa Toskala. In return the Leafs have obtained Dion Phaneuf, Fredrik Sjostrom, and Keith Aulie from the Calgary Flames and J.S. Giguere from the Anaheim Ducks.
In my last posting, I listed 11 things the Leafs have, and 5 things they badly needed. Of the 11, the only one they “gave up” was their top 4 RFA D man Ian White. Of the 5 things they badly needed, they addressed 2 and a half of them. They improved the offensive D man role by grabbing a potential future Norris candidate in Phaneuf; they got a speedy checking line winger in Sjostrom (that’s the 1/2 issue); and they grabbed a 1A goalie in Giguere.
I’d say that’s a pretty good job on Brian Burke’s part. Now they just need to add a scoring power forward on the wings, and some time for all these younger players to develop, and they could be a pretty awesome Brian Burke team in the not to distant future (3 or 4 years).
Phaneuf is a former World Juniors stalwart, and WHL phenom that rocketed into the Flames line up after a ridiculously strong career with the Red Deer Rebels. He was selected 9th overall by the Flames in the 2003 entry draft, and joined the NHL for the 2005-06 season, making his way onto the 1st NHL All-Rookie team that season while scoring 20 goals and 29 assists for 49 points and a +5 rating. In his second and third years in the league his point totals climbed to first 50 and then 60 points while he scored 17 goals in both seasons, and added an increasing assist total. His +/- rating also improved to +10, and then +12 by his third year in the NHL. He also added a larger level of grit to his game, registering 182 penalty minutes in his 3rd year in the NHL. He was named to the Western Conference All-Star teams in both the 2007, and 2008 years, and made the NHL 1st All-Star team in 2007-08. He was one of the Super Stars of the game.
Then the wheels fell off a bit last year, as his defensive game imploded a tad. He was on the ice for more goals against than any player in the NHL in 2008-09 (122), and his offensive game declined as he only produced 11 goals and 47 points in registering a -11 rating. This year his goal totals are back up to 10 in 55 games, but he only has 12 assists all year. A lot of that may have to do with a reduced role due to the introduction of Jay Bouwmeester on the blue line as a big minute man. Additionally, Mark Giordano has grown to become a larger offensive presence on the team, and Phaneuf has appeared to lose his way in the long slide of the Flames to mediocrity halfway through this season.
A change of location may do him some good, though he needs a lot of work on the defensive end, though so far this year he has a +3 rating to go along with his 22 points. He has also been on the ice for far fewer goals against this season than he was last season, so far only being on board for 54 goals against. That pro-rates to only 81 or so over a full season, which is 41 less than all of last year. He also has been on the ice for 69 goals this year, which pro-rates to 103 goals for. Last year he was on the ice for 139 goals by the Flames… so the offense has tailed off a bit.
By way of comparison, Ian White who is heading the other way has been on the ice for 60 goals for, and 64 goals against this year… fewer goals for, and more goals against… so Phaneuf appears superior in both categories (although goaltending likely has a lot to do with that).
In addition to Phaneuf, the Leafs are obtaining the rights to another World Juniors defenseman in Keith Aulie. Selected in the 4th round, 116th overall in 2007, Aulie is a physical defensive D-man who should, along with Schenn, Komisarek, and Beauchemin, make the Leafs amazingly tough to score on in a couple of years. He’s only 20 years old, a few months older than Schenn, and he will likely remain with the Marlies for the remainder of the season.
Sjostrom is a checking Right Winger that was drafted in the 1st round by Phoenix, 11th overall in 2001. He’s 6′1″ and 218 lbs, and he’s played a checking role for the past 8 years in the NHL and AHL. The Leafs are his 4th organization, after stops in Phoenix, New York (Rangers), and Calgary. Burke likely has his eye set on Sjostrom filling a similar role to the one that the likes of Todd Marchant and Samuel Pahlsson did in Anaheim: a shut down defensive forward, that can skate with anyone in the NHL. He’s a solid penalty killer with speed and size, which should help the Leafs PK improve. His defensive responsibility compares to that of the outgoing Niklas Hagman, but his offensive responsibilities won’t get in the way of his checking role.
J.S. Giguere’s numbers have declined in the past few seasons as he’s lost his starters role with Anaheim to Jonas Hiller (who signed an $18 million dollar extension yesterday). A 13th overall pick by the Hartford Whalers, Giguere won the Stanley Cup with Burke and the Ducks in 2006-07 and was named the Conn Smythe trophy winner in 2002-03 in a losing cause. Currently he has a .900 save percentage and a 3.14 GAA in a backup role.
Considering his salary, and relationship with Burke and Francois Allaire, it can be assumed that Giguere will be mentoring Jonas Gustavsson and will likely be filling the void of starter heading into the remainder of this season. He will likely relish the opportunity to reaffirm himself as a top end goalie, so it should be interesting to see how he plays in the lights of Toronto.
So where are the Leafs at this point? Well here are their lines, with the inclusion of the injured Grabovski and Komisarek for the sake of longer term thought:
L1: Phil Kessel, Tyler Bozak, Nikolai Kulemin
L2: Lee Stempniak, Mikhail Grabovski, Alexei Ponikarovsky
L3: Fredrik Sojstrom, John Mitchell, Rickard Wallin
L4: Colton Orr, Wayne Primeau, Jay Rosehill
D1: Tomas Kaberle, Mike Komisarek
D2: Dion Phaneuf, Francois Beauchemin
D3: Luke Schenn, Carl Gunnarsson
G1: J.S. Giguere
G2: Jonas Gustavsson
The Leafs are likely to make more moves at the deadline, as Lee Stempniak, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Rickard Wallin, and John Mitchell are all free agents at season’s end. Christian Hanson and Viktor Stålberg are still waiting in the wings with the Marlies, and they will likely be called up for rotation into the lineup. While Grabovski remains out, it is quite likely that Stålberg will play with Ponikarovsky and Wallin, while Stempniak plays with Sjostrom and Mitchell. These lines are completely made up on my part aside from L1, and D1, so don’t take them as gospel.
So what do the Leafs still need now that they have more star power on the back end and more room on the front end? Well, consistency would be nice. Starting in goal, if Giguere and Gustavsson can provide consistent starting goaltending, and the D can provide a consistent level of grit, the back end should be shored up slightly.
They’ve lost scoring up front in Hagman, Blake, and Stajan. They’ll get some back in Grabovski, and hopefully with more opportunity, Wallin steps up to the plate, while Kulemin continues to improve. Stålberg, Hanson, and Mitchell are all going to get their shot to thrive also.
Toronto is now the youngest team in the NHL, and frankly I expect them to continue to play poorly. This is sort of blender mode, and don’t expect Wilson to settle anything for a week or two at least. Some of the pieces here now, aren’t likely to be in a year… adjustment is still the name of the game. The only players we can count on seeing in the foreseeable future as of now are Phaneuf, Aulie, Komisarek, Beauchemin, Schenn, and Gunnarsson on the blue line. Up front we should expect to see Kessel, Kulemin, Bozak, Hanson, Grabovski, Primeau, Orr, and Sjostrom with regularity. The rest is sort of up in the air.
If Kessel, Stempniak, Grabovski, Kulemin and Ponikarovsky can continue to score, then things should be ok in the near term from a competitive stand point. Things just got a lot more interesting in Toronto for the rest of the year though, and that’s a bonus no matter how all of this works out.
Posted in Announcements, Player Analysis, Prospects, Stat Analysis
19 Responses to “Burke “Open For Business””
By usui on Feb 1, 2010
I read on many tsn post that Phaneuf was a poison in the locker room. He is also media unfriendly. I watched his interview on tsn and he repeated many times that he ”was exicted to jon the leafs” but when you look at his face…He’s not very convincing.
Would that affect the club in long term?
By glgbill
on Feb 1, 2010
Good marks today for Burke. The Giguere trade was excellent for several reasons: It should buy time for Gustavsson to develop, lowers his bargaining power for next year (giving more time to accurately assess his long-term potential), and accomplishes something almost no one thought possible — it moves Jason Blake! (Excuse me while I do the Snoopy dance!!) The rumored first rounder in return was likely swapped for the acceptance of Blake’s contract. Still, I’m not sure anyone could have done a better job moving Blake and Toskala than Burke has done. He got something more than addition by subtraction. And that’s no small victory.
The Calgary deal is higher risk, higher reward. Lots of rumors swirl around Phaneuf and, if half of them are true, he’s at least an eccentric guy, if not worse. Also, I’m not sure we’ve lowered our “Entitlement Quotient” at all, as Dion is well on his way to becoming the Eric Lindros of the blue line. That said, if we get the Dion of a couple years back (and with better defensive awareness), this will be an absolute steal. Hopefully, the change of scenery cliche holds true.
I’m also very,very happy to add Keith Aulie as we’re thin with blue line prospects.
Sjostrom has great wheels, but a couple of Calgary posters suggested he wasn’t quite the shutdown forward Burke was promising. Good, but definitely not great.
Still, looking at the Leafs, it was unlikely that Stajan would be resigned, Mayers clearly wanted out, Hagman wasn’t really a building block, and White’s upside likely tops as a middle-pairing, character guy. No critical pieces were sacrificed.
High risk (adding Dion to the locker room)…high reward (Dion realizes his full potential). A good day for Burke.
By Draybo
on Feb 1, 2010
Disagree on the continuance of poor play Steve.
Removing Toskala’s propensity to allow soft goals will automatically improve this squad. While I don’t think they’ll come close to competing for a playoff spot, I do believe they’ll be vastly improved now and in the future. Let’s face it, they really can’t get any worse.
Call me hopelessly optimistic.
By Fogger on Feb 1, 2010
This certainly one of the better articles I have read on the trade and I like glgbill’s assessment of the Calgary trade as a high risk/high reward deal. I’m not certain that one of Komisarek/Beauchemin/Schenn don’t get traded at the deadline though. Burke seems to think that defensemen have more value than forwards at the trade deadline and there’s no way he wants $25 million tied up in his defense corps. The days of Giguere being a 1a goalie seem to be long behind him but his work ethic alone should help Gustavsson out in the long term. I only see him being here for one more year.
By BCapp
on Feb 1, 2010
Okay before anything else I gotta say something about Giggy.
Does anybody know when his game slipped? It was last December (2008). Do you know what happened to him? His father died. There are very few positions (if any) more mental-based then goalies in professional sports (if any) and this is sure to fuck with someones head. Is this an excuse? No. An explanation? Quite possibly.
Realistically Giguerre has had a bad season and a quarter. He HAS proven himself to be a dominant goalie in the post-lockout era (something the Leafs have NEVER had). Hopefully the reuniting with Allaire and a new team can shake him up, get his head back into the game and turn him back into a top goalie.
K rant done.
Point 2) I am basing this on TSN and have barely ever seen the man play so I could very likely be wrong. But isn’t Sjostrom a winger?
3) Draybo, don’t mean to be rude, but I gotta say you’re hopeless optimistic lol. The leafs just lost their top goal scorer (he was ahead of Kessel 20 goals to 17, though in less games) and their player with the second highest points (Stajan). Their offense is going to suffer…greatly. Their are a lot of new blocks and chemistry will probably take time to develop (as Steve suggested with the blender analogy).
4)Steve, I think Wilson liked what he saw in a Beauch/Gunny backend so I can see that being roled with.
5)Steve, I think one of the reasons for this trade was to get more youngsters playing so once Grabs is back I can’t see Wallin playing. I more see something like this:
LW-C-RW
Kuleimin-Bozak-Kessel
Poni-Grabs-Hanson
Stemps-Primeau-Sjostrom
Orr-Mitchell-Rosehill
With Stahlberg fighting with Hanson and Rosehill for playing time
Kabby-Komi
Beauch-Gunny
Phaneuf-Schenn
Maybe switch Komi and Phaneuf
6) While I know people talk about our defensive prospect depth being thin, I don’t love think another big body shutdown guy adressed the problem. We have a bunch of those (J Mikus and P Orescovich). We don’t have any puck movers and this guy isn’t addressing that…
Anywho good write up, if a bit rose-coloured.
Cheers!
By BCapp
on Feb 1, 2010
As an addon to point 2:
Tsn has him listed as LW/RW
ESPN RW
Sportsnet LW
did he play C earlier in his career?
By ThanksSteve
on Feb 1, 2010
So is it all but agreed upon that Kaberle is being shipped the latest this summer?
It is the one move that can bolster the forward spots. Kaberle can bring in 2 really good pieces. The Leafs can get a third in free agency.
With the D and G solidified, I can easily see Kaberle out of the picture.
Beauchemin - Phaneuf
Komisarek - Gunnarsson
Schenn - Blacker/Aulie
(Maybe not next year, but that seems to be the plan)
I expect Gusto to get a raise, and Giggy to take a pay cut in the near future.
As for the forwards, this team has some help coming up with the youth… but Kaberle is the one asset that can bring a legitimate top line talent, without overpaying in free agency.
By Steve
on Feb 1, 2010
BCapp - Nope… he’s never played C in the NHL as far as I can tell, so I’m wrong on that whole Checking Centre thing. He’s been a RW for most of his career… I suppose that means Primeau will likely be playing with Sjorstrom and Mitchell or Wallin on the 3rd line.
I’ll fix that in the posting later today… and I guess that means the point I suggested needed adressing hasn’t been addressed.
I don’t see Hanson sliding into a top 6 role longer term, but he might in the near future to see if he can produce at the NHL level more consistently.
By Peter de Chatham
on Feb 1, 2010
Fogger:
“I’m not certain that one of Komisarek/Beauchemin/Schenn don’t get traded at the deadline though.”
I disagree: Schenn will still be given time to develop to see if he can live up to his play of his first year and his draft potential. He’s too young to give up on, esp. since the team is 3 years away from a strong playoff run at minimum.
Beachemin and Komisarek were just signed as Free Agents, by Burke, so it’s a matter of pride for him, but also a matter of respecting your free agents. Burke will have some signing to do this summer and it won’t help him any if he’s dumping prized new acquisitions for not performing after just a year with a bottom feeding team.
By Dave
on Feb 1, 2010
This trade is good because it replaces the utter hopelessness I was feeling about the foreseeable leafs future without draft picks with at least the possibility of improvement, however remote, within the next 5 years …
By glgbill
on Feb 1, 2010
@ ThanksSteve - As much as I like Kaberle, I agree that this spells the end of his time in Toronto. The question is whether or not he’ll try to control his destiny.
If the math is right, we saved about $1.5 million in cap space this year with yesterday’s deals. If so, this means that Kaberle’s cap hit would be $2.75 to any team acquiring him - if we take a net $1.5 million in salary back. That could be hugely attractive. And you know Burke will give teams permission to talk to Rick Curran (plans, extension, etc). Even as I type this, just realizing how far ahead of the trade deadline the Phaneuf deal was, I think it definitely increases the chances Kaberle will be dealt on or before March 3rd. Everyone has time to get it done.
If you combine salary relief, an affordable cap number this year and next, and the chance to extend Kaberle (with a team to his liking) — a first round pick plus good prospects (and/or young roster talent due a raise) should be doable.
@ BCapp - I totally agree about the type of defensive prospects Burke is acquiring. We need a kid like Kevin Shattenkirk in the system - someone who can move the puck, run the offense, etc. Still, I do believe Aulie is a legitimate upgrade over Mikus and Oreskovic. Hope this proves true.
By Steve
on Feb 1, 2010
Aulie is a higher rated prospect than Oreskovic from an all around defensive standpoint. Mikus is more of an offensive D man and while he has size, he shouldn’t be mistaken for a future shut down guy at this stage of proceedings.
As for Kaberle, Burke keeps reiterating that he won’t ask Kaberle to waive his NTC, and Kaberle hasn’t appeared interested in moving just yet. What will be interesting is the off season, when the Leafs fail to make the playoffs.
Every time Burke mentions the Kaberle contract, he goes into discussion of how well JFJ structured the deal so that Kaberle could be moved in the off season if the Leafs fail to make the playoffs. The fact that Burke keeps bringing up that point implies to me that he plans on making use of the opportunity when it arises.
We may have another draft day deal where Burke wheedles his way into the first round by dangling Kaberle in the face of a team on the cusp of contending.
By BCapp
on Feb 1, 2010
Guys (there were multiple):
Thanks for more info on the D prospects we have. My knowledge of these guys is mostly from blogs like Steves and other guys in the PPP FTB. I never really watch these prospects so mostly just here second hand information.
So thanks for the correction Steve on Mikus. So follow up: What is Blacker projected as?
Similarly in regards to Mikus, do you mean he is more of an ‘all ice’ kinda prospect? Not shutdown or offensive, per se, like Beauchemin?
By Steve
on Feb 1, 2010
Stats aren’t always the best indicator, but in this case they tell the tale a bit. Mikus has the most points of any of the D men on the Marlies with 3 goals and 13 assists for 16 points in 45 games. He isn’t overly aggressive with only 22 penalty minutes to show for his efforts, but he did register his first AHL fight this season. Unfortunately his -10 rating isn’t all that impressive either.
That being said, his +/- is only bettered by Jonas Frogren (-2), and Brennan Evans (-8) in terms of D men who have played over 35 games for the Marlies. Oreskovic by way of comparison is -16 on the year and only has 2 assists to go along with 98 penalty minutes.
Mikus also leads the Marlies D in shots on goal, with 72. The next highest is Oreskovic who has 55. He is their top D man on the PP at this point.
He has height, standing 6′4″, but he isn’t overly large for his height at 201 lbs. As he adds muscle, expect his grit to increase as he’s shown SOME propensity to play relatively physically. I wouldn’t classify him in the mold of Francois Beauchemin just yet though.
By glgbill
on Feb 1, 2010
@ Steve — do you have any speculation whether Dion’s arrival will be the proverbial “writing on the wall” the leads Kaberle to waive?
I’d like to believe he’ll meet with Rick Curran and realize that, come summer, he’s gone — and by providing Burke with a list, he’ll have at least some say in his destiny.
By BCapp
on Feb 1, 2010
glgbill:
everyone has speculaiton on that. But at this stage, that is all it is. Speculation.
I know you asked Steve, but for my two cents:
I HATE pushing the second most talented (behind Sundin maybe third behind Sundin and Kessel…we’ll see) Leaf to have laced up for the buds in a game in the last decade, who WANTS to be a leaf out the door. But the bottom line is, we gotta stop being sentimental.
And with Phaneuf coming in (@ 6.5) and Komi/Beauch not moving as FA’s by Burke AND Schenn making almost 3 with bonuses, that in a cap market Kaberle’s gotta go.
We don’t have room for him, Phaneuf (we are hoping) will be the puck mover (not in the same way as Kaberle) to replace him, with Beauch and Gunny being the other 2 ‘offensively skilled’ defensemen.
I have a feeling he’ll be held until July 1st (or w/e day the draft is). But if he’s smart he’ll submit a list.
One thing I feel: Burke has made his big splash, he can afford to be patient with Kaberle and is in no rush. He’ll wait for the right deal (or push it through).
On another note (hence all the spaces), Finger practiced today as a FORWARD!!!
According to TSN I believe the 2/3 practice lines were:
Stemps-Mitchell-Finger
Sjostrom-Wallin-Kuleimin
The first line was not mentioned but the forwards on the PP were:
Poni-Bozak-Kessel
It did not mention a fourth line but I imagine:
Orr-Primeau-Rosehill
And the probability of call ups.
One great thing we should all recognize. The guy we signed this summer to replace lost prospect Stapleton, Tim Brent, is back and healthy and scoring above a ppg pace in the AHL.
As a C I think he has a good chance at a call up with Grabs injured.
By glgbill
on Feb 1, 2010
@ BCapp - You’re right, of course…it’s all speculation. I suppose it’s also my clear hope that Kaberle WILL be dealt in March, when teams believe they are close and may see him as the single piece that pushes them over the top.
Of course, I also think the writing is now clearly on the wall — and that Kaberle might want a say in whether he toils in a place like Columbus or Atlanta next year. I’ve read at various points that part of why he likes Toronto is its multiculturalism. Wait till he walks the malls in Phoenix…
My fingers are firmly crossed.
By Redonred
on Feb 2, 2010
The Score is reporting Komisarek is talking to doctors about his future in hockey tomorrow. He may be done playing hockey. That might affect Burkes decision on Kaberle.
By BCapp
on Feb 2, 2010
Redonred the way your post sounded I thought he might have to retire…
It is just his future for THIS year and more likely just that he won’t be making the olympics… but we will see tomorrow.