Ian White’s Draft Year
January 21st, 2010 by Steve
Good for the D apparently. 2002 was a bumper crop. Jay Bouwmeester, Duncan Keith, Ryan Whitney, Joni Pitkanen, Keith Ballard, Denis Wideman, Tom Gilbert, James Wisniewski, Trevor Daley, Denis Grebeshkov, and yes… Toronto’s Ian White.
Here’s the thing though, White stands out a tad along with Wideman. White was selected 191st overall in the 6th round, while Wideman was selected 241st overall in the 8th round. Nobody anticipated either player being likely to record over 250 games in the NHL when they were 18 in other words. Both have gone on to play over 290 NHL games, and record over 100 points each.
In fact, Wideman’s 149 points ranks him 5th out of all the D men selected in the 2002 draft, behind (in order) Bouwmeester, Pitkanen, Whitney, and Keith. Keith Ballard follows Wideman with 137 points, and the 7th highest point total is owned by Ian White at 103 points.
In terms of games played White’s 291 ranks him 9th. In essence that makes him one of the top 10 D men selected out of the 17 who were picked that have actually played regularly in the NHL. His career +/- rating of +12 is the 3rd best of the D drafted, behind only Duncan Keith’s +69, and James Wisniewski’s +25. He’s ahead of Pitkanen’s +5, Bouwmeester’s -17, Whitney’s -18, Grebeshkov’s -14, Greene’s -27, Daley’s -12, Ballard’s -7, Ranger’s -10, Tollefsen’s -9, and Eminger’s -49.
That alone illustrates how far he has come defensively, especially when one considers that he has been playing for the Leafs, who have had atrocious goaltending for all 4 of his full NHL seasons. Raycroft, Toskala + Raycroft, Toskala + Gerber (who was passable) + Pogge + CuJo, and now Toskala + not such a bad Gustavsson. Think about the fact that he has had one year as a minus player, and he has scored over 20 points in each of his full seasons in the NHL. He is currently on pace to set a career high of 13 goals and 39 points.
It’s nice to see his continuing development on the Leaf blue line, and I hope they can retain his services in the future. He seems to have a decent career ahead of him. Ron Wilson seems to have had a positive impact on the lad, and one hopes he can foster a solid level of development out of the likes of Luke Schenn, Carl Gunnarsson, and anyone else the Leafs choose to play on the blue line in the future. Expect him to earn between $3.5 and $4 million over the next few seasons as he enters his prime. His consistency and competitiveness are both assets the Leafs could use.
Posted in Player Analysis, Stat Analysis
19 Responses to “Ian White’s Draft Year”
By Casey
on Jan 21, 2010
I’m with you on retaining White.
His development this year makes me feel a lot better about letting Kaberle go, because we’ll still have a competent offensive D-man on the roster.
By Dan
on Jan 21, 2010
Steve, I know you’re not much for trade talk, but with the upcoming Olympics trade freeze, are you hearing anything interesting? With the first rounders gone for this year and next, is BB going to be looking to save face or will he try to upgrade and get in on Kovalchuk? Also will there be teams looking to dump salary that BB might pick up?
Right now, I think they should look at moving players who are UFAs or RFAs they don’t plan on singing and make some room for the kids to play. They’ll likely pick up some salary for some late round picks.
As much as I like Kabby, is it time to move him along? BB needs to sign him or move him. Those discussions should be happening now while his trade value is at it’s highest.
By Dan
on Jan 21, 2010
BTW, great blog. Keep ‘em coming!
I’m for keeping White. He’s our Wendel.
By Draybo
on Jan 21, 2010
I like Ian White as a player, but $3.5 to $4 million a season seems like a lot to me. (forgetting that’s what the Leafs are paying Finger. Craptastic)
If that’s what he’d command on the open market, wouldn’t the return for the Leafs from an offer sheet be a first, second, and third? I doubt any team would be willing to sacrifice those types of picks for a 3rd or 4th D-man.
If I have that return right, maybe the Leafs should dangle him in the offseason and see if any teams are willing to part with some picks. Otherwise, I say as an RFA he should be signed for closer to $2.5 to $3.0.
It’s time for the Leafs to stop overpaying free agents to play here.
PS: They have to buy out Finger.
By Dan
on Jan 21, 2010
I don’t think they want picks for him, it’s time to get winning now and those picks wont develop for 4-5 years. They have White now, may as well get a player of the same ilk if they deem him to expensive. I agree 2.5 - 3 seems more reasonable.
Don’t buy out Finger, stick him in the minors and keep the cap space. BB is worried that it will look bad for incoming free agents, but I think it show accountability and expectations need to be met.
By Steve
on Jan 21, 2010
There are two ways of looking at this. Playing hardball with a player you don’t think other teams will make an offer for, or making a reasonable offer for a player that has done you excellent service in his career thus far.
I agree that few teams would likely sacrifice a 1st, 2nd, and 3rd for White… but one could just as reasonably argue that few teams would sacrifice a 1st and 3rd round pick for White, which is what the penalty would be for an offer sheet between $2 and $3 million.
If your justification for offering White less than $3 million is you don’t think you NEED to offer him that much because nobody is likely to outbid you, then I think you could say that offering him $2 million is enough because to go above that a team has to sacrifice a 1st and 3rd round pick.
I also don’t think you’re likely to have a happy player in White if you look at it that way. Based on his point production, and his peer group, I think you need to at least consider offering him roughly comparable salary to Wideman, whose Salary Cap hit is $3.9375 million a year. You could also compare him to the likes of New Jersey’s Johnny Oduya, who has a cap hit of $3.5 million, or JM Liles, who has a cap hit of $4.2 million.
If you, for all intents and purposes, bitch slap White by offering him $2 million, and basically say to the guy: “Here we don’t really think anyone thinks you’re worth a 1st, 2nd and 3rd rounder… so take it or leave it.” You’re unlikely to have a player that values the “opportunity” you’re giving him by restricting his pay on the basis of an inability to move… i.e. increasing the odds of him jumping ship as soon as he’s able to.
You also need to be really careful because White is eligible for salary arbitration this season. He has 6 full years of pro-experience, and 4 years is the minimum required. If you go to arbitration, you’ll probably end up having to pay him something around $3.5 million anyway, and if you decide to walk away, he leaves as an unrestricted free agent and you recieve nothing in return. If you want to avoid arbitration, you need to make him a reasonable offer.
The Jeff Finger signing was a bad one, and frankly the Leafs overpaid on a player nobody expected them to at the time. His numbers have dipped significantly this season though, and if it weren’t for Exelby, he’d be playing a more regular role on the team. Either way, the two situations aren’t really comparable, so I don’t really think Finger’s deal is that relevant to what you offer White.
By MIKE
on Jan 21, 2010
KEEP WHITE!!! I AGREE SEND FINGER DOWN. EXELBY NOT SHOWING ME A LOT. BEAU, KAB, WHITE IS STILL A GO. OPION ONLY ALL. AN I AGREE WITH OTHERS FOR SURE THAT ION SHOULD BE WEARING THE C!!ANOTHER THING IS BURKY BOY PROMISED A TOUGH TEAM. DAMMIT WERE STILL GETTING PUSHED AROUND.YOU SEE THE SABES ONE GUY. WHICH I HATE THE SABE. BUT I WOULD LIKE TO SEE KALEDA GET HIS ASS WHIPPED. THEY PLAY A VERY BASIC GAME. AN GET RESULTS. ITS JUST NOT RYAN MILLER. AN WE ALL KNOW THAT. I WOULD SAY. YA THINK? GO LEAFS
By Tom Cat on Jan 21, 2010
The way I look at the signings of players already on the team is that sure its a contract for a future number of years but its also a reward for prior service. White’s after having a few decent years and has been paid next to nothing in NHL standards. 3 or 4 mil for him wouldn’t upset me at all.
Its paying some other teams washed up stars big bucks that pisses me off.
Steve, there’s always talk of trading this guy or that guy for a 2nd, 3rd draft pick. What I would really like to see, and I’m sure its been done in the past, is what percentage of players drafted in these rounds end up with a substancial NHL career?
By Peter de Chatham
on Jan 21, 2010
Let’s look at the bigger picture. What’s our goal here?
Is the goal to win the Cup? Or is the goal to get back into the playoffs and get knocked off in the second round?
If it’s to get the Cup, then dump White for high picks. We need them back. Dump every RFA and UFA you can get a decent deal for and start over.
If the goal is to weasel into the bottom seed in 2012 and get knocked off in the first or maybe second rounds for the next few years, then by all means sign White to a 3 year deal at 4.5 million.
Toronto needs two tough, big defencemen for their shutdown pair. They need to develop those through prospects. They need an excellent goaltending prospect. They need at least five more forwards of Kessels’ calibre. How do they get those? Through the draft.
By Steve
on Jan 21, 2010
Peter - think about what you just typed for a second.
Umm the Leafs currently have Luke Schenn, and Mike Komisarek on the roster. In the system they have Phil Oreskovic, Korbinian Holzer, Eric Knodel, Juraj Mikus, and Barron Smith. All of those guys are big D men who are well over 6′ tall. Developing a shut down D doesn’t happen over night, but I sincerely would rather the Leafs don’t constantly look to stock up on something they already have an abundance of in their system. If you want them to select the next Tyler Myers (they had their chance and took Schenn instead - AND traded 2 draft picks in the process), then they might as well work on development and scouting, not trading for more picks at this point.
Again they had that in Rask, and traded it away. They still have Reimer, and they drafted Grant Rollheiser a few years ago who is now the back up at Boston University. Goalies are usually horribly difficult to scout at their draft age, so it’s really not as cut and dry as you make it sound. They also added Gustavsson last year, and I don’t see them letting him walk for nothing at the end of the year. Goaltending isn’t as big a question mark as it was a year ago.
Umm… no they don’t. They need maybe 1 or 2. 5 more would cost them a total of roughly $30 to $35 million at any one time, and would eat up only 6 of the team’s 25 roster spots. When you factor in the fact that they’ll probably pay a starting goalie $3 or $4 million, and their top 4 D men another $18 million or so, that only leaves you with $2 million, to sign another 7 forwards and 3 defenders and a backup goalie. I’m sorry but no team has 6 forwards of Phil Kessel’s caliber. Not even Pittsburgh, or San Jose, or Chicago has 6 forwards of that Caliber.
They’re Stanley Cup contenders, and they all have roughly 3 (possibly 4) of that caliber. Virtually no team in the NHL has 6 that are that skilled… and to want 6 is dreaming in technicolour. It just isn’t going to happen… ever.
By Dan
on Jan 21, 2010
Steve, couldn’t agree more. Blow it up again and start over again? With no first for the next two years? Peter’s a Sen’s fan, if you ask me, or just overly frustrated (as we all are). This teams got some big money to spend this offseason and can make some big bold moves on the free agent market. It’s kind of like it’s already been blown up. It’s been long enough waiting for this to turn around, they have to get competitive sooner than later.
Lets get it rolling, even if it’s just to make the playoffs, it means we’re headed in the right direction.
By BCapp
on Jan 22, 2010
Dan,
I gotta disagree. No reason to rush all of a sudden. I think that cap space will be spent on taking in large salaries with prospects/picks attatched and we’ll have to deal with a couple of yeras of over paid veterans. To be honest, look for us to get more ‘Blakes’ not get rid of them.
The idea would be take a Horcroff if you’ll give a Gagne with (okay that one wouldn’t happen).
Or BEFORE this year, take Malone… Hahahah (who would be aperfect ‘Burke’ player)
In regards to White, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. We can’t resign him AND keep Kaberle. One’s gotta move.
By Dan
on Jan 22, 2010
BCapp, Had we had a chance to sign the twins last season, I think you’d be singing a different tune. If they we lucky enough get Kovalchuk; and they’d have to have some luck, something we know they never are, then it’s a building mode, not destroying mode.
This is a young team and if they can unload a couple big salaries, we have a very young team. with this years ufa crop we can get younger.
Build
By BCapp
on Jan 22, 2010
Dan,
Of course I’d love them to do that.
I just don’t think its gonna happen…
By BCapp
on Jan 22, 2010
Besides if you know the way Burke builds a team, I just don’t see him spending big money on a FA acquisition for a forward yet.
He is known for building from the net out. Our net is just not stabalized enough.
Anywho back on the White question.
I really hope we can resign him for 3.3-3.7 (though I imagine he’ll get a Beuachemin-esque contract of 3.8).
Anywho, if Kaberle gets traded that would be a top 4 of:
Komi 4.5
Beauch 3.8
White 3.5
Schenn 2.7
14.5 which isn’t bad
Finger 3.5
Gunnarson .8
Ideally another minors guy for the other spot (orescovich, mikus etc) .5-.8
4 mil
18.5 total on the back end. Thats actually pretty reasonable.
Combine that with 6 mill or so for goalies leaves 34 mil for forwards. A pretty nice chunk of change.
By BCapp
on Jan 22, 2010
Sorry thats 5 mill for the bottom 3 (and all because of Finger) so its 19.5
By glgbill
on Jan 23, 2010
Another interesting rumor is a potential trade with Boston that would send Kaberle in exchange for our 2010 1st round pick and a prospect. Acknowledging the hurdles, it would be amazing if we could add enough (ideally, salary relief, roster depth, but maybe also a prospect) to get Joe Colborne as well. He also projects as that big 1st line center, and as a pass-first guy, might be a perfect complement to Kessel.
By Casey
on Jan 23, 2010
glgbill,
Where did you hear said rumour? And don’t you mean 2011 first rounder?
By glgbill
on Jan 23, 2010
Hi Casey, it was Eklund, so take it for what it’s worth. The following was written:
“Could Kaberle to Boston Equal The #1 pick back? The Leafs have been adamant that Kaberle will not be moved, however there is a theory out there that if for some reason the Leafs could get back the #1 this season that they moved for Kessel, plus a prospect…Kaberle could be Bruin. I personally think the Bruins would be an immediate playoff factor if they made that deal.”
http://www.hockeybuzz.com/blog.php?post_id=25696&blogger_id=1