Leafs Squeak By
January 19th, 2010 by Steve
Well, it was nice to see some offensive output from Niklas Hagman, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Matt Stajan, and Phil Kessel in the Leafs 4-3 victory over Nashville. The Leafs haven’t gotten ANY scoring from those guys in FOREVER… or have they?
Matt Stajan: 3G, 4A, 7P in his last 8 games. That’s pretty damn close to a point per game, and that’s with the team hardly scoring any points. He’s being productive.
Alexei Ponikarovsky: 3G, 1A, 4P in his last 8 games (he went without a point in the 5 games previous to the last one). He’s seen a few hiccups recently, but he looked solid against the Predators tonight at both ends of the ice. He’ll still be a commodity at the trade deadline.
Niklas Hagman: 2G, 2A, 4P in his last 18 games. WTF??? This guy is the 3rd leading scorer amongst the Leafs forwards and he has 4 points in his last 18 games. That’s kinda crazy. He has 17 goals, and is still on pace to score 28 or so, but yikes. 18 game cold streaks are best avoided by scoring forwards.
Phil Kessel: 1G, 5A, 6P in his last 5 games. Jeez so much for the Kessel can’t produce offense theory. He’s obviously doing SOMETHING offensively.
So is anyone else producing for these sad sack Maple Leafs? Lee Stempniak has 4G, 5A, for 9 points in his last 11 games. Nikolai Kulemin has 3G, 3A, for 6 points in his last 8 games. Tyler Bozak has 1G, 3A, for 4 points in the 4 games since he was called up, which tacks on nicely to the assist he had in his only game prior to that, giving him 5 points in 5 games.
The Leafs have players scoring 1.2 ppg (Kessel), 1.0 ppg (Bozak), 0.875 ppg (Stajan), 0.818 ppg (Stempniak), and 0.75 ppg (Kulemin) in their top 9 forwards over the course of the last two weeks or so. That should be enough to get any team some wins, except they have gone 3-7-0 in their past 10. Compare that to their opponents tomorrow night, Atlanta, who have gone 3-4-3 over their past 10, but their top scorers have been Kovalchuk (1.2 ppg), Antropov (1.1 ppg), and not much else. Peverley and Afinogenov have both dropped off of late.
I’m going to take a moment here to point out that Antropov has 38 points in 43 games, and is currently leading Atlanta as a +16 player. He has scored 12 goals on only 63 shots. He is a good NHL player, and he’s earning his salary at this point. Good on a former Leaf.
So the Leafs have some offensive punch, but they can’t seem to get many wins. Is goaltending the problem? Well Jonas Gustavsson had posted 3 consecutive games with a sub .900 save percentage prior to making 27 saves on 30 shots for a .900 night against the Predators, so yeah, goaltending might be part of the problem. He has an .891 SV% since the beginning of January, which is a bit of a drop off in comparison to his previous months. Toskala hasn’t fared much better, but including his shut out against the Flyers, he has an .903 SV% in his 3 starts since the beginning of the year. Unfortunately January has been the Leafs season in microcosm from a goaltending perspective. Good stretches interrupting generally average to sub-par play.
Defensively things seem more stable with Carl Gunnarsson back in the line up, though he had his first minus game as a Leaf, bringing him back to +5 on the season. Luke Schenn played very well in Nashville, registering a +2 night, making him +4 in the last 3 games, and returning him to even for the season. He has gained in confidence during the absence of Mike Komisarek. For the second time in three games, the Leafs shut out the opposition in the PP for a change.
Overall the Leafs game seems to have improved a tad, despite the blow out loss to Washington. If they can keep up their solid play against Atlanta, and do something to slow down Kovalchuk and Antropov, they might be able to make it two in a row.
Posted in Game Analysis, Player Analysis, Stat Analysis
18 Responses to “Leafs Squeak By”
By Casey
on Jan 19, 2010
Wow Hagman has been COLD, I didn’t realize he was cold to that degree! Am I the only one who is curious about the offers Burke received for Hagman after he went nuts offensively earlier in the year?? Perhaps similar to what Anaheim commanded for Kunitz last year?? (Ryan Whitney, or equivalent value)
A thought about the top-6 as they stand right now… I think it’s wise to play Poni-Stajan-Hagman together, because they are essentially the #1 line, having more combined skill than Kessel-Bozak-Kulemin. I think it takes the opposition’s focus off of the Kessel unit, even if slightly. It should make a difference.
By BCapp
on Jan 19, 2010
Casey:
Kunitz didn’t get Whitney alone. It was Kunitz and a top tier prospect.
By BCapp
on Jan 19, 2010
According to hockey futures Eric Tangradi (that prospect) is an 8.0B, which means he should become a good first line player, but not a league-phenom (think Elias or Tkachuk).
Compared to the leafs our BEST prospect (according to hockey future) is Kadri who is an 8.0C, which means he is projected to be as good, but it is less likely that he’ll pull it off.
By Hilleraj
on Jan 19, 2010
Man, when was the last time a team needed to “do something to slow down Antropov”?
I thought he did that quite well on his own when he played for us…
By Casey
on Jan 19, 2010
BCapp,
Hockey’s Future is a terrific resource, but it’s hard to trust their grading system flat out. Tangradi should be a solid power forward, maybe of a Ryan Malone-type stature… These types of players often don’t pan out, or they take years to develop. He was an important part of that deal, but clearly Whitney — who is a proven player with offensive gifts — was the centre piece of that trade.
But the fact that you bring up Tangradi is good, because the fact that Hagman and Kunitz are in the same stratosphere of talent (I think Hagman is better and the numbers back it up) means that any team looking to acquire Haggy would be looking at surrendering a top prospect and a solid roster player — or a return of equivalent value. Isn’t that encouraging from a fan’s standpoint??
Now, I don’t think Burke would dream of trading Hagman if he wasn’t assured or signing/trading for a suitable replacement. After all, the Buds could be in the same position this year, clawing every night to keep Boston out of the draft lottery, presumably for the second year running.
Also, after watching Kadri, I don’t need a letter grade to tell me how good he can be, and I’m sure you don’t either. The kid will be a point producer in the NHL. The two things in question are his work ethic (which looks to have improved) and his size (which the Leafs will keep a close eye on). Kadri knows that he won’t make the club next year without some meat on his bones, so surely he’ll be beefing up over the summer. If he decides to train with Gary Roberts like Stamkos did last summer, he could show up to camp in prime shape.
By glgbill
on Jan 19, 2010
Good points (both ways) regarding the Kunitz trade, although it’s worth noting that Tangradi accompanied Kunitz to Pittsburgh for Ryan Whitney.
However, this trade is exactly the type of deal Burke needs to find, and one of several (3-4) ideally. Our version could look like this: High(er) salaried roster player + good prospect to Toronto, in exchange for a helpful component for this year’s playoff run (plus cap space).
By BCapp
on Jan 19, 2010
Yeah we are definitely sellers.
We have a lot of cheap pieces to give to teams on legit runs.
I keep hearing Pitsburg, LA, and Chicago come up, as teams that would look for more offensive punch.
In addition, maybe someone like Calgary or Edmonton if we would take one of their over paid players off their hands. (*Shudder* Horcroff (though we better get a damn first which I can’t imagine the last place team giving their first), or Landkow)
While they are terrible deals, that is what we need to take advantage of
By BCapp
on Jan 19, 2010
Sorry, I meant to say terirble contracts. But thats the idea, we need to swallow these crappy contracts and take picks/prospects back
By BCapp
on Jan 19, 2010
Casey:
btw I was trying to imply that Kunitz value wasn’t worth Whitney.
It had to be Kunits + Tangradi for Whitney
And I thought the comparison was Kunitz and Poni
By Steve
on Jan 19, 2010
It was Kunitz + Tangradi for Whitney. Tangradi was a 2nd round pick, 42nd overall. Not necessarily a blue chipper, but not a bad piece to toss in the mix.
By Teddy Dupuis
on Jan 19, 2010
Tangradi will be a good winger for either Malkin or Crosby. Kunitz is better than Hags and Pony. He also has a ring and plays with sand paper and is tough for his size.
Nothin but love here for Antropov, should have resigned him.
By Casey
on Jan 19, 2010
The numbers would say otherwise about Kunitz being better than Hagman. I think the general perception of him might be a bit inflated because he tagged along on with Andy McDonald and Teemu Selanne during Anaheim’s Cup run, and he similarly tagged along during Pittsburgh’s Cup run. He had one (1) goal in the Pens’ playoff run last year.
By BCapp
on Jan 19, 2010
I don’t get the love of Kunitz.
He really doesn’t play that well, I see him make a lot of mistakes, produce shite considering he plays with one of the top 3 players in the game (sometimes 2 of them).
Poni and Hagman are better, I just hope other GM’s recognize this.
By Steve
on Jan 19, 2010
There must be some consideration of the situation players play within. Ponikarovsky and Hagman are both very productive forwards who are capable of producing in limited ice time.
They both have 18 goals, and sit within the top 30 in goal scoring in the NHL. Yes… read that again: They are BOTH in the top 30 in goal scoring in the NHL.
How many playoff teams will ignore the chance to obtain a guy that’s in the top 30 in the NHL in goal scoring who is defensively responsible??? I sincerely doubt many will.
The only road stop I see to a deal being made for either one is Burke’s asking price. It will be higher for Hagman because he is under contract for another year… although the luxury of not having to retain Ponikarovsky is also a bonus.
They could both easily fetch a high 2nd rounder… if not a 2nd rounder and a prospect.
An interesting option would be a serious upgrade in the forward ranks for a team that wants to make a pitch for our entire 2nd line.
That might sound crazy, but how intriguing would it be to drop in an intact line for a playoff run that would easily be one of the top 2nd or 3rd lines in the NHL when it’s actually producing effectively?
Poni + Stajan + Hagman… feel free to bid on all 3 in a package - all we want in return is a 1st round pick, 2nd round pick, and a top prospect.
By Casey
on Jan 20, 2010
Steve, Leaf fans are going nuts on trade speculation, and I love it. I think we all sense that Burke can’t possibly stand pat with a roster that’s looking like it will fetch Boston the third overall pick.
I feel confident that two of the three you just mentioned will be out the door on March 3rd.
If we can grab two second round picks again at the deadline, will you consider it a success? Another Kenny Ryan and Jesse Blacker added to the prospect mix isn’t bad at all in my books. And to think, those were both picks 50+. A pick between 40-50 would be nice.
By BCapp
on Jan 20, 2010
I just feel the need to emphasize Steve’s point. By being in the top 30 in goal scoring, poni and Hags would be the best goal scorers on many teams, and because studying sucks, I am now going to check which those are…
By BCapp
on Jan 20, 2010
Philli, NYI, Nashville, LA, Florida, Dallas, Anaheim, Washington (with three), Tampa, Jersey, San Jose, Chicago, Vancouver, Edmonton, Montreal, Calgary, Columbus, NYR, Pittsburgh, and Atlanta all have players with more than 18 goals.
Therefore Poni or Hags would be the leading scorer on 9 (NINE) NHL teams 5 of which are currently in playoff slots:
Buffalo* (SECOND IN THE EAST)
Boston*
Phoenix*
Colorado*
Ottawa*
Detroit
St Louis
Carolina
Minnisota
(* marks a playoff team)
That includes 2 division leaders!
By Steve
on Jan 21, 2010
Unfortunately, three of the clubs in playoff spots where they would be the top goal scorers happen to play in the Leafs’ division. I am thinking Brian Burke isn’t the sort of GM to make a lot of trades within his own division… for competitive reasons if nothing else.
That limits things a bit more. I would still think teams like Phoenix or Colorado might be interested. Mueller would be someone to look at from the Coyotes, and a draft pick from anyone at this point would be a good thing.