Potential Top Line Centre Options
December 20th, 2009 by SteveIn a post yesterday I discussed the fact that there are not many decent alternatives as a top line centre to replace Matt Stajan with available in Free Agency. Aside from Tomas Plekanec, there are very few players with comparable production at a similar age who will be available at a similar price point.
Thus I think it behooves the management and scouting staff of the Leafs to be on the lookout for potential trading partners, and players they have identified as filling a need going forward. Matt Stajan is adequate on a bottom 3rd team, but he is not the top line centre of a team competing for the Stanley Cup.
Earlier this season I made regular reference to the necessity of adding a top centre with size. One with a skill set that might be considered in the power forward mold would be ideal, but size and reach alone would be a great asset. A few seasons ago the Leafs almost brokered a trade of Tomas Kaberle in exchange for Jeff Carter, and I myself advocated on behalf of the acquisition of the likes of Nathan Horton.
Horton is having a career year as the top point producer for Florida, with 11 goals and 25 assists for 34 points through 35 games. He is also a respectable +7, indicating he plays a reasonably sound game defensively. He is also under contract for the next 3 seasons past this one at $4 million dollars a year. That would give the Leafs cost certainty, and just the sort of truculent presence they truly lack in their top 6 forwards. His offensive skills would also be a solid addition, and he would take some of the focus off Kessel on the top line.
Jeff Carter is slightly off his pace of last season, and the team he is playing with has been an extreme disappointment so far this season. A change of scenery and team make up might be worth considering in Philadelphia, as the young core of the club have had a hard time maturing so far in the NHL. Carter has 12 goals and 14 assists for 26 points in 34 games so far. He is under contract at $5 million for 1 season past the current one, and may be ripe for the plucking via a trade later this season if Philadelphia continues to struggle.
Carter is a less impressive -4 on the season, but given his track record as a proven 40+ goal scorer, who had over 80 points last season, he would definitely be a strong candidate should the Leafs be able to dangle something Philadelphia sees a need for.
A key issue at this stage of the game on the trade front is, the Leafs lack draft picks in the coming off season, and beyond the likes of Tomas Kaberle, they lack players that are likely to be of great value to teams in the same echelon they find themselves in. Philadelphia and Florida happen to be in that echelon and are thus looking to improve themselves also, so I’m not sure the Leafs have the pieces to get a trade done.
All I’m fostering here is a discussion of potential maneuvers on the part of Burke et al in the future. If anyone else can come up with a solid plan of attack I’d be curious to hear/read it.
Posted in Cap Analysis, Player Analysis, Prospects, Stat Analysis
28 Responses to “Potential Top Line Centre Options”
By Pat Verbeek
on Dec 20, 2009
If we offer Kaberle to the Flyers in exchange for Carter I wonder if they’d toss in their first round pick. What a deal that would be!
By Casey
on Dec 20, 2009
Can we pry Mueller from the ‘Yotes? Still very young, loads of potential, and reportedly has had a falling out of sorts in Phoenix.
By Marco
on Dec 20, 2009
Can’t get a first off Phili, they dealt a couple firsts for Pronger.
By BCapp
on Dec 20, 2009
What about Kesler as an upcoming FA? Has Vancouver resigned him, because I thought he was coming to Free Agency this year.
By Redonred
on Dec 20, 2009
I’m split on who I would rather have between Horton and Carter. Horton would probably fit better with Kessel than Carter, and having another Horton would be sweet. At the same time though Jeff Carter, like myself, is a Londoner. The more forest city dwellers on the team the better. Which is, of course, why Van Ryn must be resigned next year.
By Death By Leafs
on Dec 21, 2009
White might also be a highly tradeable asset: considering his RFA rights also come along for the summer, the new team can set their own cap value for him.
Bergeron might also be available out of Boston, as his 4.75 cap might be too rich considering Krejci (3.75) and Savard (5, dropping to 4.007) could be above him on the centre chart.
The Chicago rumour mill has recently died, but maybe Sharp is still the odd-man-out from their top-6. Or perhaps you take a lame contract attached to an unknown quantity in Bolland? He could be a gem or a bust (and would possibly eat Stajan’s dollars either way) but Burke would probably demand their low 2010 1st in return for the favour.
Or maybe you could take Handzus + a 1st from the Kings to eat their $4m bust until Summer ‘11?
And is it blasphemous to wonder what circumstances would lead to Spezza coming to Toronto to centre Kessel? They would be stupid to trade him, but that’s the chatter you continuously hear from the capital. And if another Joe Thornton-type fleecing is looming, how can we sneak in?
By BCapp
on Dec 21, 2009
Death by Leafs:
Is Sharp actually better than Stajan? The numbers he has produced, has actually been pretty close to what Stajan has produced by age and line opportunities.
And I think White is a tradable asset, but the way I see it, is we keep White OR Kaberle, not both. White is going to cost on the open market nearly 3.5-4 mil. We can’t afford to pay that for when we are already paying 5 guys top four money.
In regards to your Handzus suggestion, you have to remember the Kings are killing right now. A late round 1st sounds great in the media, but isn’t much better then an early 2nd.
And in regards to Bergeron, he’ll just get moved to the RW. All I hear this year in Boston is how much they love him and his intagibles. I see Ryder/Sturm being moved if they want to dump salary.
By BCapp
on Dec 21, 2009
Steve:
To get something from Philly we need to offer them something they don’t have.
They have a ton of point producers and we have none to spare.
They have great offensive defensemen (Pronger, Timmonen, Carle).
They have good defensive defensmen (Pronger, Cobourn)
They have tons of solid prospects/youth (Giroux, R Parent, JVR)
Their weakness is goal. Obviously Gustavsson is out of the question, so maybe Reimer?
Reimer + Stajan + 3rd = Carter?
By BCapp
on Dec 21, 2009
As well with Philly, we can probably trade for Briere, b/c with Carter and Richards as there 1a 1b centers. And Hartnell/Giroux for RW and Gagne/JVR for LW, Briere just looks like a bad signing when they didn’t know what they have. Of course we should get stuff for taking Briere, b/c of his disgusting contract.
As well they may want to trade Hartnell who is not a center, but he could be that power forward to play with Kessel. So first off his problem is that he is a natural RW I believe. But Philly may be wanting to move him right now b/c he is leading the league in minor penalties and their PK is killing them (of course that wouldn’t be good for us either).
By Leaf fan in Habland
on Dec 21, 2009
No comment on the Spezza suggestion? I think it is important to weigh how much of a douche he actually is with how much of a douche he becomes by being a Senator. If the question is, would he make the Leafs better, then the answer is yes. But if the question is, is there a realistic prospect of acquiring him, then the answer is probably no.
At $7M, he might be a bit pricey, unless we can unload a contract to Ottawa in return. Their problems are always in goal. Stajan might not be a bad fit there, as they seem to think the world of Mike Fischer. The thing is, they don’t really have a number 1 centre to take Spezza’s place–are two overachieving centres better than one sometimes underachieving star?. If they were to take Vesa, Finger (for the contract) and Stajan for Spezza and a pick (2nd or 3rd), I’d do it, but that’s just not likely.
By BCapp
on Dec 21, 2009
Leaf in Habland:
I think it more likely that we would take Spezza without giving too much contract back as it would be a salary dump. As well if they give up Spezza they have just given up their 2 best players in one season, I don’t know if they could sell that to their fans…rumours or not.
In regards to Vesa, he has a negative trade value. Nobody wants so we would have to give a team something to take on his contract, so you may as well forget him. And as much as everyone makes fun of their goalie situation they seem happy with Leclaire and Elliot. Personally I think Elliot is growing nicely into a #1 starter for 2-3 years down the road.
So to get Spezza it’ll probably something like Bozak, White, Grabs straight up for Spezza and a late pick.
Stajan will have little value to Ottawa as he is a UFA. This way they get a prospect in Bozak an RFA White and a number 2 C to replace Fisher when they move him up to #1.
Now I can’t see the leafs trading Grabs or Bozak. Trading Bozak would look terrible on us as we worked hard to get him and you can’t sign FA’s if you are going to trade them right away…
If there were a fleecing available ala the Thorton trade I’d take it. I’d say it is HIGHLY unlikely but the GM in Ottawa is an idiot, so I’ll say it is unlikely.
By Karina
on Dec 21, 2009
I have been trying to think of a way that we could get Carter from Philly - he’s rumoured to be available, but I just can’t figure out what we have that is reasonable trading fodder.
Florida, I think we have more that they may want, but I don’t know why they would give up Horton. But trading for a #1 center is probably our best route to go.
By Steve
on Dec 21, 2009
The problems in Philly are in the dressing room and make up of the team. They have solid pieces, they just aren’t the right ones. If they trade for players of roughly equal value, it won’t ruin the level of play of the team, and it might solidify things for them up front.
As much as I love Hagman, I think a trade of Hagman for Carter straight up might make the Flyers think twice. They also have problems on the back end, despite the fact that Carle and Pronger have played decently. Coburn has had an off year, and Timmonen is getting older also. Thus I think the White idea isn’t far from possible either.
If we were to deal Ian White and Matt Stajan, Philly might part with Carter and a prospect.
There’s no way the Leafs want to take on Daniel Briere’s contract as it is atrocious given his size, durability, and age.
By Carm
on Dec 21, 2009
Like others have mentioned, I don’t think there is a fit between the
Leafs and Flyers to consummate a deal (unlee Burke is willing
to take on Briere’s ridiculous contract -and I do not see that).
I think the Leafs should be targetting Mueller and the Coyotes. He is not playing
now and might be available. I am thinking that a package of White and one of Stajan or Kulemin
will get it done. Too much to give up? Not enough?
By Marco
on Dec 21, 2009
There is not a lot you could offer me to convince me to move Kulemin, the guy is gonna be a great 2-way player for us a long time provided we don’t give him up.
By BCapp
on Dec 21, 2009
I agree Marco. I see a lot of potential in him, and there is no way we can get his value.
Especially considering we can probably get him resigned 1-1.5 mil for 2-3 years.
If anyone wants Mitchell on the other hand… hehehe
By BCapp
on Dec 21, 2009
Carm:
Why are you so hot on Mueller? He has had one good year (admittedly at 19) and hasn’t improved from there. Do you realize he was picked 1 pick after Tlusty?
He is simply not worth that much. He is a good prospect, but he could still be a bust.
Wellwood had a similar season at 22 and Steen at 21. Busts?
Lets not sell the horse for a prospect, a lot just don’t turn out…
White has a VERY high value. He has the best plus/minus on the team is a good power play point man, and will put up 40-50 points this year. Add to that he is on a sub 1 million paycheck AND is an RFA he will be worth a TON to a contender near the deadline. Because they can get him cheap AND (unlike Poni/Stajan this year and Antropov last year) they can resign him easily next year.
By BCapp
on Dec 21, 2009
*I meant house, not horse.
By Carm
on Dec 21, 2009
Actually, Mueller was the 8th pick overall and at 6′2, 210 has the frame
and skill set to be a protypical #1 centre with size. I like both Kulemin and White and I don’t disagree with
other points you made. But, is Kulemin ever going to be better than Poni is now?
Poni is a good player (defensively responsible, durable, some offensive pop) but, IMHO, often leaves you wanting.
I don’t think Kulemin has the hands to ever score 30.
I certainly like White and his puck moving skills but 40-50 points might be out of reach for him. I do agree with others that they may have to
make a choice between Kaberle and White.
By BCapp
on Dec 21, 2009
Sorry I thought Tlusty was 7th, so Mueller was 5 picks later.
In regards to White he is on pace for 38 points. But he is on a 4 game cold streak, and the last time I had checked it was mid 40s
By mf37
on Dec 21, 2009
I’d suggest the Leafs move every spare part and pending UFA (other than White) at the trade deadline for more prospects.
This summer they can back fill forward positions by signing UFA vets to cost-effective one-year deals.
Gives the prospects a chance to ease into the line-ups, the Leafs loads of salary and roster flexibility, and - if they only offer one-year deals to the vets - they can trade all of them for more picks and prospects at the trade deadline in 2011.
By Josh
on Dec 21, 2009
I just wish the Leafs could somehow pry Mikko Koivu away from the Wild. He would be absoultley prefect at centre alongside Kessel.
By BCapp
on Dec 21, 2009
mf37:
Your idea would work well in NHL10. In fact, its what I did.
The problem is that these are real people. Its hard to find a lot of ‘vets to sign for one year who you can trade at the deadline’
By mf37
on Dec 22, 2009
BCapp - Recent examples of UFA vets (with nominal trade value) who signed one-year deals: Koivu, Comrie, Afinogenov, Lehtinen, Bertuzzi, Williams, Moore, Sykora, R. Niedermayer, Weight, Higgins etc. etc.
By Steve
on Dec 22, 2009
mf37, that list is a bit off for a few reasons.
Koivu, Comrie, Afinogenov, Bertuzzi, Sykora are all coming off situations where they were released from their current teams due to a LACK of performance. The Leafs UFA’s have not been failures in terms of performance of late, and they are also far younger.
Lehtinen re-signed a 1 year deal with the ONLY team he has ever played with - Dallas - so including him in the list doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Williams has had horrible injury problems, and he’s injured yet again, so I’m not sure he’s the sort the Leafs should be looking at.
The Leafs gave up on Moore because he wouldn’t sign exactly the deal the Leafs wanted, so again… he isn’t a player we should be looking at.
Weight re-signed with the Islanders, who he was already playing for - again, not quite the same as the situation you’re describing.
Higgins wasn’t an unrestricted free agent signing at the end of the year, he was traded by Montreal to New York as part of the Gomez deal, and then signed a 1 year RFA deal with the team in possession of his rights - the Rangers. The equivalent would be the Leafs signing White/Kulemin/Mitchell to 1 year deals… not trading them.
By glgbill
on Dec 22, 2009
Great conversation. No time to make a thoughtful contribution, but kudos to all for a fun and thought-provoking read over coffee this morning.
As an aside - Happy Holidays to all! Hope it’s a fun and safe celebration. And a special thanks to Steve for making it all possible. Go Leafs Go!
By mf37
on Dec 22, 2009
Steve - As stated, I’d like the Leafs to sign one-year deals with filler in order to give their prospects another year to develop. If the UFA signings pan out, great, they can dump them for more picks and prospects at the deadline. If they don’t, who cares? It’s not like the Leafs are going to really challenge for another few years and it’s not like there are any really promising cost-effective UFA options on the market.
As for the list I put up, Afinogenov sure is working out for Atlanta, Koviu and Bertuzzi have certainly been ok for Anaheim and Detroit as well (Bert would be 5th in Toronto for goals and 7th in points). I wonder how Moore would look this season in Toronto at $1.1M?
Nothing is without a downside, this was just my thoughts as to how the Leafs could back fill a few roster spots with efficient contracts, get yet more picks and prospects, and enable the on-going development of the kids in their system.
By leaf_addict
on Jan 19, 2010
What are your thoughts on prying lecavalier away from Tampa. Every year he seems to be on the trade block. Let’s bundle a couple players grabo/hagman or poni/white for example. This would give us the number 1 centre we need.