Micro Seasons and Power Rankings
December 14th, 2009 by SteveSo the Leafs were the worst team in the NHL by far through the first 13 games, registering a 1-7-5 record for 7 of a possible 26 points. Now they’re one of the hottest teams in the league having gone 10-7-2 in the last 19 games, giving them 22 of a possible 38 points. Through the first 18 games of the season, the Philadelphia Flyers had a 12-5-1 record giving them 25 of a possible 32 points. Since then they have gone 2-10-0 for 4 of a possible 24 points. They’re now tied with the Leafs at 29 points on the season.
I tend to look at the schedule on a month by month basis, because frankly assessing a season in it’s entirety when there are 82 games is rather pointless.
For the first half of the year last season, the St. Louis Blues were really really bad, but then in the second half they went gang busters and made the playoffs. The San Jose Sharks were on a ridiculous tear to start the season, but then fell off, and were out of the playoffs after the first round. The Pittsburgh Penguins encapsulated this issue most concretely last season, as they too found themselves out of playoff contention at the halfway point of the season, but by the end of the playoffs Sidney Crosby was leading the Pens around the rink as they took turns hoisting Lord Stanley’s Mug.
Now, I’m not saying Howard Berger is right, and not all of the games matter equally, because they do. But teams go on hot streaks, and teams go on cold streaks, and what really matters is which of those lasts longer and occurs more regularly for any NHL franchise in question.
This year’s Leafs are no exception, and despite being atrocious in the first couple of weeks, they’ve played pretty solid hockey of late and are finding themselves back in the playoff race. Yes their special teams are still pretty bad, but their 5 on 5 play is near the top of the NHL, and if they ever get consistently good goaltending, they’ll continue to improve in the standings.
So here is how the Leafs have done on a month by month basis, and their ranking in the NHL for each:
October: 1-7-4
November: 5-5-3
December: 5-2-0
Obviously the Leafs are improving.
I compared the entire NHL by monthly point percentage, and the Leafs were 30th in October, 23rd in November, and currently have the 4th best total for December. By combining the rankings for each franchise month by month I obtained a summative value, thus for instance the Leafs total would be 57 (30+23+4). Using this method, the Leafs actually have the 22nd best total so far for the entire NHL.
That ranks them ahead of Tampa Bay (59), Philadelphia (59), Anaheim (60), Montreal (62), the New York Rangers (65), Florida (67), the Islanders (69), and Carolina (77).
The only advantage of this method is it rewards consistent solid performance, thus so far the highest ranked teams are New Jersey, Pittsburgh, Washington, Chicago, Buffalo, and the LA Kings. That generally speaking is how I would likely rank the top teams in the league so far. San Jose have appeared strong, but their play this month has dropped off quite badly. Edmonton is currently on fire, having the best record so far in December, but they were the second worst team in the NHL in November, so they haven’t exactly been consistent.
I will freely admit that this method is pretty far from statistically valuable, but I feel that it represents the overall level of play of most teams fairly accurately, and it minimizes the impact of teams running away from the pack in one month while being average to outright poor in others. Similarly, it minimizes the impact of a team playing so far beneath the pace of the rest of the league in one month while being competitive in others… like the Leafs.
Let’s be honest, the Leafs are obviously a better team than their record showed in October. Similarly, the Flyers are likely worse than their record showed in October. In the end, I’m happier with the rankings this system has given me than those I find on power rankings around the internet (which typically slot the Leafs in as 2nd last in the NHL, right ahead of Carolina).
Posted in Stat Analysis
6 Responses to “Micro Seasons and Power Rankings”
By glgbill
on Dec 14, 2009
This is an interesting article, especially given the premise (posted somewhere) that gave the Leafs a less than two percent “statistical” chance of making the playoffs after October’s slow start. Clearly, such studies cannot anticipate the dramatic shift in W-L performance we’ve enjoyed — instead, largely projecting an October pattern over the course of a full season (allowing little or not deviation). To those looking for predictive statistical power, welcome to the world of sports.
That said, the question becomes: Are the Leafs starting to realize their true potential or simply playing desperate hockey, and at a pace that will be difficult to sustain over the course of a season?
Admittedly, I didn’t anticipate the tide turning as it has, and it’s been damn fun watching the Leafs over the past several weeks. We’re now at the edge of the playoff pack, with only four points separating seven teams fighting for the last playoff spot. We’re in the fight. With 50 games to go…
October is memory. If we finish December the way it has begun, the Leafs will be very much in the hunt. Go Leafs Go!
By Tom
on Dec 14, 2009
I think your method is flawed. Basically what your ranking method is doing is putting more weight on the month of December than it should have. The Leafs have played just over half as many games this month as in the other two. Since they’ve been on a roll since the start of the month, it makes them rank better than they should be on your scale.
By Steve
on Dec 14, 2009
Tom… my method is amazingly asymmetrical… and obviously December has more weight than the other two because it’s half over. I know this.
That being said, the entire thing is based purely on rankings relative to the other teams in the league, which means SO far the Leafs have a certain ranking amongst their peers in December. Yes there’s time for that to shift, but every team has had a roughly equal opportunity in the month of December to obtain points, just as they did in October and November.
Don’t worry, I don’t think the whole thing should replace the NHL standings… I just don’t think typical power rankings make much sense and I think the results of what I did here make more logical sense to me than most power rankings on other sites appear to… but I’m a Leafs fan, so obviously I’m glad they’re above 29th.
Take the whole thing with a grain of salt.
By Peter de Chatham
on Dec 14, 2009
“That said, the question becomes: Are the Leafs starting to realize their true potential or simply playing desperate hockey, and at a pace that will be difficult to sustain over the course of a season? ”
Yes, that is a very good point. Sure, the Leafs have a bit of a hot streak going right now, but we’ve seen this before, haven’t we? Except it usually goes Hot October, Cold November, Hot December — then a long, long, long January / February slump, followed by a desperate climb to within 1-10 points of the final playoff spot in March.
So I’m watching out for the typical Leafs new years slump. Then the Olympic break will be another curveball - many teams will have franchise players going at full steam for two weeks, Leafs included with Kessel. Who knows how it will affect him?
By Tom
on Dec 14, 2009
I guess if the leafs manage to keep up this pace in December, they can expect to be in or around 22nd in the NHL by the end of the month. And with the East being as tight as it is, that could mean anywhere between 5th and 13th or so.
Speaking if which, when is the NHL going to figure out that a regulation win should be worth 3 points?
By BCapp
on Dec 14, 2009
Tom:
I’m cool with the 3 pt regulation win, but I also think the shootout should be scrapped.
And the leafs are now at 24th on TSN Power Rankings, which is pretty accurate.
Before the season started I said 14-22 (I know its a big range but its usually a pretty tight range points wise) and it looks like I might actually have been accurate.
When they were at there worst, I said maybe more like 18-24th, but looking at that team I was never able to accept that they would really end up below 24th.
I really hope I don’t end up eating these words at the end of the season.
And as always Steve, fun read!
Cheers,
BCapp