31 Points Anyone?
December 14th, 2009 by SteveApparently that’s the magic number in the Eastern Conference these days. Toronto, Philadelphia, Tampa Bay, the Rangers AND the Islanders all have 31 points after tonight’s games. That’s 5 out of the 15 teams in the conference, or one third. St. Louis and Anaheim also have 31 points, meaning that the bunching in the League standings at this stage of proceedings is getting a bit ridiculous. Apparently 7 of the 30 teams, or over 20%, are all tied at this stage of the season. Montreal, Florida, and Minnesota all have 33 points.
In total, there are 10 teams within a 2 point range in the standings, and an almost absurd 15 teams within the range of 31 to 36 points. So much for the Leafs being out of the playoff race early. I’ll have to admit I counted them out after their horrible stretch of play to start the season, but I obviously under-estimated their ability to bounce back, and the amazing likelihood of a third of the eastern conference falling to earth at the same time (hello Flyers, Islander, Ranger, and Lightning fans… doesn’t feel so good when your team plays like crap does it?)
At this stage of proceedings it appears that there is a skill gap in the East. Washington, New Jersey, and Pittsburgh are far better than the rest of the conference, and will likely be competing for the conference title all season long. Boston and Buffalo are a tier below that, and based on defensive acumen alone are likely to cement playoff spots over the course of the full season if they can stay healthy (particularly in goal).
Then there’s the masses beneath. The Ottawa/Florida/Montreal/Toronto/NY Ranger/NY Islander/Philadelphia/Tampa Bay cluster of crap that occasionally plays really well… and occasionally craps the bed. All of those teams seem to possess the necessary pieces to potentially make the post season, but if parts of their team suffer major injury or come up short in their performances then it might all be for naught.
Carolina was the first of the lower group to suffer from a major injury bug - losing Eric Staal, Cam Ward, and Ray Whitney for extended periods to start the season. They’re now 11 points back of the rest of the conference, and will be in tough to make up the lost ground with how they’ve been playing.
The last 50 games of the season will provide copious opportunities for any of those bottom clubs to fall apart, or go on an extended run of solid play. The nice thing for Leafs fans is, they seem to now be relatively clearly IN that group, where last season they were on the outside looking in - along with the Islanders.
On that note, here are some positive stats from the Leafs as the season progresses. Areas in which they are in the top half of the league performance wise.
Goals per game: 2.91 (9th)
5 vs. 5 F/A: 0.98 (15th)
PP%: 20.3% (10th)
Shots per game: 33.8 (2nd)
Win% when scoring 1st: 0.778 (9th)
Win% when leading after the 1st period: 0.833 (8th)
Win% when leading after the 2nd period: 0.889 (14th)
Face Off Win%: 50.1% (12th)
Goals For 2nd Period:37 (T-6th)
Goals For 3rd Period: 37 (T-3rd)
Goals For Total: 96 (T-8th)
So to recap, the offensive game and 5 on 5 play of this team are pretty damn solid. They hold leads reasonably well when they have them. They win faceoffs at a respectable rate. They shoot the puck a lot.
Areas they need to continue to improve in would be goaltending, defense, penalty killing, penalty taking, scoring first, and shutting down the opposition late in games. They’ve improved in some of those areas of late, but there’s a lot of room for improvement.
Posted in Stat Analysis
10 Responses to “31 Points Anyone?”
By eyebleaf
on Dec 15, 2009
Steve, can you give me a “Playoffs!!!1″ ???
By usui on Dec 15, 2009
They win faceoff at a respectable rate?
Well, I say it really helps when you have Wayne Primeau winning 12 out of 15 tonight at the Sens game.
By Dave
on Dec 15, 2009
A little more fun to blog about the Leafs than, say, a month ago, eh steve?
By eyebleaf
on Dec 15, 2009
I’m still waiting Steve …
By Steve
on Dec 15, 2009
I will admit the Leafs may yet make the PLAYOFFS!!!1… but they’ll be in tough after the Olympics to do well if Kaberle, Kessel, Komisarek, Hagman, Grabovski and possibly Gustavsson (though Hedberg is probably the number 2 at this point for Sweden) are struggling after the tournament.
Each of the first 5 are likely shoo-ins for their respective national sides, and I’m concerned about injuries down the line. Yes that may be a problem for most NHL clubs, but some are going to be more impacted than others.
If our top 2 D men, and 3 of our top offensive players are all running on empty at the end of the year, we could be in trouble.
By BCapp
on Dec 16, 2009
I didn’t realize Belarus had a team at the olympics… C’mon Canada Russia final! Give our guys an extra day off (and be one of the most awesome games ever)!
By Victor Fryer
on Dec 16, 2009
The one thing of note that no one has said is this, yes we were a bad team at the start of the season . there were games that we should have one but , the other teams goalie was a star in each of those games. So even when we played well enough to win we could not. The next 15 games or so we played again very well and got some points out of them, we have been playing good hockey for a much longer time then some of us know. we are on the ups swing and some of those others are on the down swing. I think we are going in the right direction dont u . If we keep playing the way we have been then we will make it to the playoffs and then its a new season again. I for one Be leaf that this is what will take place. bleeding Blue and White. go Leafs go
By BCapp
on Dec 17, 2009
Steve:
Although a lot of ppl in the barilkosphere consider you the ’stats guy’ I find you know a lot about prospects too.
I have heard a lot of people say that Paradis may be very similar to Clutterbuck out in Minnesota. Would that be a good thing? (I don’t watch much Western games, so all I really have to judge him on, is his poor point production. But you obviously can’t judge a guy like that on points.)
By Dan
on Dec 18, 2009
Earlier in the year broadcasters kept saying that the Leafs were running into hot goalie after hot goalie. If you watched the games, sure the goalies looked good, got lots of shots and made some outstanding saves. But if you really looked at it, the Leafs were firing shots from the perimeter. Low percentage shots. Jason Blake type shots. Right in the goalies chest. Goalies dream about getting free-bee games like that to pad their stats. Marty Brodeur made a hall of fame career out of saving easy perimeter shots.
Difference now is that guys are going to the net, point shots are have traffic in front, their moving the puck around better and most of all Kessel.
Back to the goalies. Look at guys who play under certain systems, they make out like bandits. Ottawa goalies thrived under Martin’s systems, Hitchcock’s goalies have done very well under him, Jacques Lemaire and just check out Phoenix under Tippett. I mean, they play perimeter shot like crazy, and it works, they win.
I’m not say that the goalies they played are terrible goalies like the ones that Martin had in Ottawa (sens suck, krusty sucks). But the Leafs made it easier on them.
By BCapp
on Dec 18, 2009
Because that horrible game (cough *toskala* cough) was too depressing I found a pick me up on youtube.
Remember why we loved Tucker:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TFVMbtlutwc
Not only did he level all 6″‘9′ of Chara but he took down 2 more Bruins (thats 60% of their skaters on the ice!!!)
and for comedic value watch Chara chase him with his fist up in a ‘come here so I can kill you’ pose.