Toronto Maple Leafs

Riding The Wave

So maybe the title is a bit misleading, but the Leafs are definitely picking up wins on the basis of solid offensive production, rather than anything close to solid defense.  After falling behind yet again in a game against the Florida Panthers, 2-0 within the first 2:04 of the game, the Leafs managed to push hard offensively against one of the more solid defenses in the NHL and eke out a 6-4 victory.

In fact, during their current string of games in which the Leafs are 3-0-2, they have faced down some of the best goalies in the Eastern Conference: Semyon Varlamov of the Capitals (0.922 SV%, 2.35 GAA), Dwayne Roloson of the Islanders (.916 SV%, 2.80 GAA), Antero Niittymaki of the Lightning (0.932 SV%, 2.19 GAA), and Tomas Vokoun of the Panthers (0.921 SV%, 2.74 GAA).  Together that group sits comfortably in the upper half of NHL starting goalies with at least 15 starts when it comes to save percentage and goals against average.

Even more promising offensively is the fact that the Leafs have put up 19 goals in their past 5 games, giving them a goals for per game of 3.8 over that stretch.  The increased production has pushed their offense up to 2.75 goals per game on the season, ranking them 17th in the NHL offensively (tied with Detroit).  Their goal scoring problems of a month ago seem to be a bit less of an issue at this point.

I’d just like to take a moment to point out that the players doing the scoring are Phil Kessel, Niklas Hagman, and Alexei Ponikarovsky, who I have consistently been pointing to as producing at a reasonable offensive pace.  Matt Stajan has added on a few bonus points of his own, and the team is climbing to respectability from an offensive perspective at 5 on 5.  The top line of Kessel, Ponikarovsky, and Stajan has now produced 8 goals and 6 assists, and a collective 6 rating over the past 5 games.

Secondary scoring is picking up also, as Hagman and Grabovski are producing as well, with a combined 7 goals and 3 assists to go along with a +5 rating.  Jason Blake and Christian Hanson have split the duties as the second winger on that line, and have combined for an additional 3 assists in that role.  Thus the Leafs top 6 forwards have produced 15 goals and 12 assists over the past 5 games.

At that rate, the top 6 are chipping in 3 goals a game, and if they get another one from one of the bottom 6 forwards, then they’re producing more than enough offense to win games regularly.  Thankfully Nikolai Kulemin, Wayne Primeau, Lee Stempniak, and the Defensemen will chip in that extra goal occasionally.  They are also relying on the PP less than they did early on in the season, which is a step in the right direction.  This is more like what Ron Wilson and Brian Burke envisioned when they built the club in the off season.

If current trends continue, Phil Kessel will score 40+ goals, Niklas Hagman will produce 40+ goals, and Alexei Ponikarovsky will score 30.  Last year there were ZERO Leafs with over 30 goals.  Last year only 40 players in the NHL broke the 30 goal plateau.  Only 23 teams had a 30 goal scorer, and only 3 teams in the NHL had three of them, while 11 teams had two.  If, by the end of the year, the Leafs have two 30 goal scorers, that will be a huge improvement in the top 6 production of the club, especially if they are playing on two different lines (i.e. Kessel and Hagman).

On special teams, the PK has improved.  After the last game against Florida, they are still sitting at an 81.6% kill rate since October 31st.  That’s over the course of 13 games, and more than half the season.  If that number were applied to the entire season, they would rank 13th in the NHL in penalty killing, ahead of the New Jersey Devils, Nashville Predators, Philadelphia Flyers, and Vancouver Canucks.   The Power play is still pretty solid, ranking 7th in the NHL at 22.9%, and scoring another 2 goals against the Panthers.

Goaltending and team defense are still a concern for the team.  Over the 5 game stretch, Jonas Gustavsson has actually played fairly poorly overall. Of the 5 NHL rookie goalies Gustavsson has the worst Save Percentage and Goals Against Average.  That being said, he also has the most minutes played of that group, and he’s playing on the worst team from a talent perspective.

His style of butterfly works well when he’s on, but he has a tendency to rely a lot on his reflexes and size to make athletic saves.  His positioning needs a lot of work, and he often over commits.  In addition, his play in the shoot out is more than a bit weak, as he tends to bite on the first move most players make, and then is left completely helpless when they don’t follow through on it.  Theoretically his stature in the net, when paired with his athleticism, should allow him to be more patient with shooters, so as he works with Allaire, I would hope they focus on relaxing his style of play, and allowing the play to come to him in certain situations.

I think a positive role model in terms of style would be Pekka Rinne in Nashville, who is a couple centimeters taller, and outweighs Gustavsson by 15 lbs., but still plays a large goaltending style that I think would translate well to the Swede’s body type.

As he gets more starts, let’s see if Gustavsson improves with more playing time.  Refinement and improvement in his game will need to be a focus of the team going forward.