It Can’t Go On Forever - The Cupboard Isn’t That Bare
November 19th, 2009 by SteveI know everyone in Leaf land is a tad moribund these days. Yes it sucks how badly the Leafs are doing these days, and yes it feels like it will never stop. I know it sounds ridiculous to say it at this point, but trust me that it won’t be this bad all season long. The team will improve one way or another. There is absolutely nothing for the Leafs to gain by maintaining the status quo all season long.
If the team improves, the situation takes care of itself. If they continue to play like crap into the 30 game mark or so, then Brian Burke will have to start contemplating drastic maneuvers, because keeping to the status quo would be very detrimental to both his ego and his career. In reality, the current state of affairs is a bit of an indictment of Burke’s judgement of the combination of talent he put together, but it’s not as bad as it seems at first blush.
Some Leaf fans are beginning to raise the dreaded idea that if the Leafs finish dead last, the fans don’t even have high draft picks to look forward to. The specter of the 2004 editions of Washington, Pittsburgh, and Chicago have all been raised as similar to the Leafs current rendition, with the caveat that those three clubs had numerous upper round picks to look forward to in the subsequent seasons. Picks to raise them from their depths.
There’s some flaw in that argument though. If this current edition of the Leafs is similar to the 2003-2004 Blackhawks (20-43-11-8, 59 pts) then it should be pointed out that while the Blackhawks drafted Cam Barker 3rd overall and David Bolland 32nd overall in 2004, they followed that up with Jack Skille 7th overall in 2005, Jonathan Toews 3rd overall in 2006, and Patrick Kane 1st overall in 2007. They actually improved BEFORE they got the 1st overall pick. Rock bottom came before those really high draft picks panned out.
Prior to the 2003-04 season, the Hawks had already drafted Brent Seabrook, Duncan Keith, James Wisniewski, Anton Babchuk, Tuomo Ruutu, and Craig Anderson between 2001 and 2003.
Thus if we’re comparing them to the Leafs, we would have to point out that the Leafs have recently drafted Kadri, Schenn, Kulemin, Schenn, Stålberg, Tlusty, Gunnarsson, Mikus, Hayes, Stefanovich, Champagne, Hayes, D’Amigo, Blacker, Ryan, and Knodel. Of course, half of those are guys nobody has seen in the NHL yet, but a few of them will make it eventually, and they’ll likely perform to some solid degree. Oh and they just traded for a 2006 5th overall pick in Kessel, who happens to be performing pretty well.
The Leafs gave up 2 first round draft picks, and a 2nd round pick in the Kessel trade, and they lost a 4th round pick in the McCabe deal. They’ll suffer for 2 years… unless they trade to get someone else’s first round pick in the interim. Or else pick up other team’s prospects. Or else sign free agents from Europe and the NCAA to make up for it… oh yeah how can we forget Hanson, Bozak, and Gustavsson?
Washington in 2003-04 (23-46-10-3, 59 pts) had a pretty good cast of players considering how bad their record was. Jagr, Lang, Gonchar, Bondra, Zubrus, Witt, and Kolzig. Somehow they still only won 23 games. The only solid prospect on their 2003-04 roster was Semin. They added one player of note during the lockout - Alex Ovechkin. Anyone see how the Leafs adding of Kessel might appear similar?
The Caps drafted Mike Green in 2004 at 29th overall. They completely failed at the 2005 draft, despite having TWO first round picks (funny how that doesn’t get mentioned). Then in 2006 they got to select Backstrom 6th overall, because they STILL SUCKED with OVECHKIN AND SEMIN AND GREEN ON THE TEAM. Oh and they picked Varlamov 23rd overall that year too. Then they picked Karl Alzner 5th overall at the 2007 draft, because THEY STILL SUCKED IN 2006. 70 points for two years in a row and they missed the playoffs. They weren’t world beaters once they had all those great rookies. They had to develop.
Again I will point out that Boyd Gordon, Alex Semin, Eric Fehr, and Brian Sutherby were all drafted by Washington prior to their hitting rock bottom.
Leaf fans seem to be missing the fact that making the playoffs might take YEARS of development. Luke Schenn might be a 4 or 5 year veteran before he sees success. Phil Kessel may have to do what Steve Yzerman did… wait a while before he gets to see the playoffs again.
Last of the comparisons? Pittsburgh and their 2003-04 season (23-47-8-4, 58 pts). Dick Tarnstrom led the team in scoring, and Alexei Morozov was their top forward. They drafted Fleury in 2003, BEFORE they hit rock bottom. They drafted Ryan Whitney in 2002. They drafted Erik Christensen, and Maxime Talbot in 2002 also. Brooks Orpik and Michel Ouellet joined the club via the draft way back in 2000. Yes they had high draft picks in 2004, adding Malkin, Goligoski, and Kennedy via the draft that year, and then in 2005 after the lockout they got to pick Crosby and Letang. But then they sucked so badly they got to go do it again and pick Jordan Staal in 2006… a year in which they only had 5 draft picks.
They also drafted Angelo Esposito in 2007. Ok so they traded Christensen, Esposito, and Colby Armstrong to Atlanta for Marian Hossa and Pascal Dupuis, but that was sort of meaningful.
My point is, even if the Leafs DO hit rock bottom this year, one or two years of drafting do not make or break a franchise. If the Leafs are concerned about having star offensive players, the organization likely feels they’ve done that by adding Kessel, and hopefully develop one out of Kadri. The majority of the other role players on the club should and likely WILL be filled in by other prospects the team has selected over the past 4 or 5 drafts… and will continue to select from the later rounds.
Two or Three picks will not make or break the club’s future at this point… and even if this is rock bottom, Leaf fans need to be prepared for a FEW YEARS of losing hockey while the younger players on this team develop into leaders that can carry a team.
Oh and if Brian Burke is thinking about what he can do to shake up his team, he might want to look at the Minnesota Wild, who recently called up their leading scorer from the AHL. Former Leaf prospect Robbie Earl scored twice in his second game in the NHL, and has increased his game time in each of his first 3 games with the Wild. Maybe bringing up some more Marlies would inject some life into these Leafs?
Posted in Player Analysis, Prospects
18 Responses to “It Can’t Go On Forever - The Cupboard Isn’t That Bare”
By betterforsome
on Nov 19, 2009
Steve, I think the flaw in your argument is that while the teams you listed as returning to prominence after a stint at rock bottom (Chicago, Washington, Pittsburgh) didn’t accomplish this in one year, they still acquired the talent that powered their current ascendancy in the first round of the NHL draft. Supporting players were acquired in the later rounds, and that’s what the Leafs have in the cupboard right now: future role players and boom-or-bust longshots who shouldn’t be the foundation of a rebuild. Additionally teams like the Hawks, Caps and Pens actually committed themselves to a rebuild movement and held onto their picks. Toronto has, once again, ended up in de-facto rebuilding mode due to short-sightedness. The Leafs fan-base was prepared to see a deliberate reconstruction effort when Burke came on-board almost a year ago. I remember plenty of people saying “let’s get it right this time.” Burke lacked the patience for that when the fans were prepared to give him the time and the opportunity and now that Toronto is turning in such dismal results any bridge to a rebuild has been completely burned by the Kessel trade.
Toronto does have some future core pieces in place in Kessel, Schenn, Kadri and Gustavsson but without high first-round draft picks they will not be able to, say, follow the Blackhawk’s rebuilding act by finishing off with Toews and Kane, or Pittsburgh finishing off with Crosby, Letang and Staal. Instead Toronto can either go after high-priced, older free agents, look for talent in the later rounds of the draft and NCAA free agency (which yields support players and occasional second-liners but almost never a franchise player like they need), or trade more of the future for immediate help. In other words, business as usual for the Leafs. A so-so free agent signing like Komisarek, a decent late-round pick like Stalberg, and a great player for two years of your future like Kessel is not the model for constructing a successful franchise. The Hawks, Caps and Pens went throug multiple years of losing, but because they used that time to stockpile young talent, these were productive years of losing. Toronto now faces the spectre of going through the next two years for nothing at all.
Seriously, it’s getting to be like Custer’s last stand around here.
By Steve
on Nov 19, 2009
Tuomo Ruutu, Cam Barker, Brent Seabrook - all 1st round players.
Fleury, Armstrong, Orpik, and Whitney - all 1st round picks.
Fehr, Semin, Gordon, Sutherby - all 1st round picks.
You aren’t saying the players I listed are late round picks… you’re basically implying the Leafs will suck because they won’t be keeping their own top 5 picks…
so let’s review again shall we?
Schenn, Kadri, Kessel, Tlusty - all 1st round picks.
Chicago added Brian Campbell, Nikolai Khabibulin, Cristobal Huet, Marian Hossa, Martin Havlat, Patrick Sharp, Samuel Pahlsson, John Madden, Kris Versteeg, etc. through free agency or trade. I’m pretty sure a few of those guys had a pretty major impact on the club. They are a bad example for building solely through the draft, especially since their contract situation is going to require them to jettison some of their core.
Pittsburgh added Hossa, Guerin, Kunitz, Gonchar, Gill, Scuderi, Sykora and others over time, all of whom at various points were fairly important to their success. They still can’t seem to win much without Gonchar in the line up mind you. He’s their most important Defender.
Washington relies on the likes of Laich, Theodore, Morrison, Fleischmann, Knuble, Bradley, Clark, Morrisonn, Pothier, Jurcina, and Poti. All of whom were obtained from places outside the draft. Of Washington’s core - only Semin, Green, Ovechkin, Backstrom, Fehr, and Varlamov were drafted by them. That’s a pretty select group of 6 players, but it’s not the entire freaking team.
People need to realize that the Leafs are not just going to use the draft, and NONE of these teams used ONLY the draft. If they had used ONLY the draft, they would still suck… i.e. the Florida Panthers, or NY Islanders.
By Draybo
on Nov 19, 2009
Betterforsome, you can’t say in one sentence that the Kessel trade was short-sighted, but then call him a future core piece.
As for acquiring talent in the first round: Kessel, Tlusty, Schenn, and Kadri are all first rounders. Kulemin, Hayes, Ryan, and Blacker are all second rounders. Kadri, Hayes, Ryan, and Blacker are under 20, and haven’t yet played an NHL game. Gunnarson, Mikus, and Stalberg look to me like solid late round pickups. All are under the age of 24. Let’s hold off on judging them as future role players and boom-or-bust longshots. That’s just the kind of fan thinking that has contributed to MLSE trading away picks and young players for decades.
The real crux of your argument is that we don’t have an Ovechkin, Crosby, or Toews: a superstar. Guess what, there’s only a handful of those players in the world. No one is saying that Taylor Hall or anyone else in this year’s draft is as good as Crosby or Ovechkin. Now, while I was weary of two first rounders for Kessel myself, there’s no guarantee with those picks that Boston will make. I would also argue that Kessel (22), Schenn (20), and Kadri (19) could all turn out to be studs (hopefully while still with Toronto, though the track record isn’t very good).
Finally, as Steve points out, Burke has way too much of an ego to let this go on much longer. I for one don’t believe the Leafs will finish in the bottom three in the league. Bottom eight, definitely. I also believe that Burke will swing a couple of deals and still end up with a first round pick in this year’s draft. Won’t be as high as Boston will draft with the Leafs original pick, but it will still be a first rounder.
Be patient and let the kids develop.
By betterforsome
on Nov 19, 2009
The point I was trying to make was that teams acquire their elite, core talent throught the draft and then supplement it by other means. The players Steve listed as being added from elsewhere are all, to my mind, supplementary players to their team’s high first-round draft picks. Some of them are great players to be sure, but they were brought in to put a team over the top or lay the basis for talent to come, not to be the central piece that the rest of the lineup revolves around. I’m optimistic about the Leafs young prospects but aside from Kadri and Schenn I don’t think we have any blue-chippers and without any picks in the next two first rounds we’ll have a hard time finding more. What I want to see on this team is the kind of talent that shows up on top-ten lists and I think the first round of the draft is far and away the best place to find it.
By BCapp
on Nov 19, 2009
The bottom line is that after the first 5-8 picks, the first round is overrated. Their are a lot of busts, players who end up as either 2nd rounders, or just role players.
How many studs do you see here after the top 5:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_NHL_Entry_Draft
Or here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_nhl_entry_draft
(of course in 2004 we may want to look at more development time…)
Now there are some stacked ones like this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2003_NHL_Entry_Draft
The point is, is that it is a good source of talent. BUT that being said, most first rounders are not team building, studs…they are just solid players.
Honestly we can have a solid team next year. I’ll say it again
Assume the salary cap stays equal 56.6
Tlusty (1.2) UFA Center (7.5) Kessel (5.4)
Blake (4) Grabs (2.9) Hagman(3)
Stahlberg (0.85) Bozak (3.7) Hanson (0.92)
Rosehill (0.51) Checking Center FA (0.75) Or (1)
Forwards = 31.73
Kaberle (4.25) Komi (4.5)
Schenn (3) Beach (3.8)
White (3) Gunnarson (0.8)
D=19.33
Monster (3 (12/4 years)
Career 1b (like Nittymaki) (1.5)
G=4.5
Darcy Tucker buy out=1 mill
=55.6
leaving 1 million dollars for our scratches
The only trades this requires is dumping Finger, and he is playing well so I think we can do that at the deadline.
It assumes White will resign for 3 million which seems reasonable, and Tlusty for 1.2 which thus far seems reasonable.
Notice this also doesn’t even include calling up Kadri.
This won’t be the team next year, but it shows you that we have the youth and cap room to build that competitive team.
The young core to build around on taht team is:
F=12.5
First line material: Kessel
First or second line material Tlusty/Stahlberg
Second line:
Bozak
2nd/3rd line:
Hanson
4th line:
Rosehill
D= 6.8
White, Schenn, and Gunny
G=3
Monster
22.8 million dollar young core + Kadri in the wings (I think he’ll probably need one more year of development). It looks good to me.
By BCapp
on Nov 19, 2009
The second/third line are interchangeable in position.
By Kohma
on Nov 19, 2009
Great post Steve. I find your writing consistently interesting and factual. Thanks for taking the time to respond to my replies from the other day as well.
As for the Leafs having to suffer a few bad years before achieving success…I have no problem with that. And if this is rock bottom, then so be it. Do the last few years not count towards this though? How can we have missed the playoffs for so long and still need a few years to develop and improve? Who is mainly to blame for this?
By Kohma
on Nov 19, 2009
Also…I’m Canadian.
By Steve
on Nov 19, 2009
I think betterforsome that you’re missing the point I’m making. Chicago hit rock bottom in 2003-04, they didn’t draft Toews or Kane until 2006 (following the 05-06 season) and 2007 (following the 06-07 season) respectively. That would mean there was a 2 year window between hitting rock bottom and drafting their best two players.
Guess how many years the Leafs are without a top draft pick? 2 YEARS.
Washington selected Ovechkin AND Green immediately following their worst season in 2003-04. The funny thing is, Green wasn’t THEIR draft pick, he was 29th overall, and they picked him up via a trade. So really only Ovechkin is relevant to the failing and keeping your picks argument. Green actually supports the whole trading for late first rounders argument.
They then completely botched the 2005 draft, so their next bumper crop including Backstrom, and Varlamov was in 2006, and then Alzner in 2007. Guess what, other than Ovechkin, that means that Green, Backstrom, and Varlamov all lie outside the Leafs current predicament. So really the ONLY player that the Leafs would potentially miss out on is their Ovechkin equivalent. They can still obtain their Backstrom, Green, and Varlamov via trades and patience.
Oh and as for Pittsburgh, yeah they got Crosby and Malkin, and then they selected Goligoski, Kennedy, and Staal… so yeah they’re the worst comparison. You’re right the Leafs won’t get to emulate Pittsburgh.
Jee the one off that means they won’t get to pick Malkin, Crosby, and Staal in 3 consecutive years. How patient do you honestly think Leaf fans are? I sincerely doubt they would be selling out tickets all the time to watch a team finishing dead last 3 consecutive years. Pittsburgh didn’t have to because they had the lockout year to save them… but guess what - the team still went Bankrupt and had to threaten to move to KC before they got a new arena deal and the fans came back.
The Leafs are already having a hard time selling tickets in a crap economy. I sincerely doubt they’d continue to perform well at the gate if they iced a perrenially pathetic squad just so they could land Taylor Hall and friends.
I’ve had this argument before many times with many people, and I’m a tad misanthropic when it comes to my assessment of Leaf fans. They are not so lacking in vitriol and spite that they would forgive an 8 year drought without the playoffs. Hell they have a hard enough time with 5 or 6 years.
They won’t stand by and support the team through a crap year. That’s pretty obvious to me.
By betterforsome
on Nov 19, 2009
Steve, I understand that you’re saying it would be a while.
That’s just what bothers me. I think if we had our next two first round picks it would shave two years off that wait time. And I honestly don’t think this team can become an elite franchise any other way than drafting. not in the salary cap age.
By Steve
on Nov 19, 2009
I really just don’t think those 2 draft picks are as meaningful as we’re implying. I think it’s very feasible to argue that Kessel will be as valuable if not MORE valuable than those 2 draft picks.. and either way, this will be a debate people are having 10 years from now.
Having the debate now, when we have ZERO idea where the Leafs will finish this year - or next year - or how well Kessel will play, is sort of absurd.
Yes they suck right now, but that’s after 19 games of one season. They have 3 of their past 4 first rounders in their system. Plus another first rounder from the past 4 years in Kessel. They’ve also got 4 second rounders from the past 4 years, as well as Bozak, Hanson, and Gustavsson. I really don’t think one can argue that they aren’t going to have a decent crop of young players in the next 3 or 4 years, if they can actually develop them decently. People need to relax and let the development happen.
It won’t be a pretty process, but very few players enter the NHL ready to compete at a top level, and expecting that from any player is a huge burden. Look at Schenn… he’s sort of wilting under the recent pressure, and I’m not sure why we’d assume any other top 5 pick the Leafs make wouldn’t wilt under the SAME pressure.
Either way, they’re going to get their picks down the line… just relax a bit.
By glgbill
on Nov 20, 2009
Steve, the question isn’t simply whether or not Kessel was worth the two firsts and a second, but also whether Burke actually had to pay that price to get him.
You’ve shown plenty of legitimate examples where first round picks didn’t pay off. Agreed. Entirely. But would you give up a first round pick (any first round pick) if you didn’t have to? That’s the real problem with the Kessel trade. The 2010 first had to be included, no doubt. But the 2011 first wasn’t necessary.
With other GMs fearful of an offer sheet from Toronto if they dealt for Kessel’s rights, no team would have offered Boston more ‘value’ than the compensation package (Leafs 1st, 2nd, 3rd in 2010). Toronto could have assumed salary (see Kobasew) to sweeten the deal, instead of dealing an additional first round pick. Regardless of Kessel’s play, it was atrocious asset management by Burke.
By Mike Walton
on Nov 20, 2009
Look, brass tacks.
Trading for Kessel was a departure from the “re-build”.
2 1sts, and a 2nd?
For one player?
That’s not a rebuild, that’s a trade deadline move to go over the top.
It will send this team under the bottom.
Spin, argue, point to exceptions all you want, the Leafs have been carpetbagged again.
There remains no hope, whether you accept it or not.
It will take 5 years to recover…again.
I can’t take it anymore, and the fact Steve actually thinks there’s reason for hope only highlights the core of this teams problems.
Dilussional fans, ready to swallow any pile of shit plopped in front of them.
Amazing.
By Leafer
on Nov 20, 2009
Kessel was a top 5 pick overall.He scored 35 goals in the NHL at the age of 21.There are only a handful of players who can lay claim to to such an achievement.Add in the uncertaintity on where Boston would eventually be picking and the future of the player selected and suddenly the two first rounders doesn’t seem too bad.Granted I will admit it will look far different if Boston ends up getting two top 5 picks out of this.It would also be different if every first round pick was guaranteed to develope into a first line player like Kessel.But in reality very,very few ever do.As for the additional 2nd rounder, it shouldn’t of been included, but 2nd round picks are tossed around like garbage in this league.Hell,Burke will probably gain a 2nd round pick at the deadline for bums like Toskala,Stajan or Blake so who really cares, the 2nd rounder will be easily replaced with little fan fare.
By Steve
on Nov 20, 2009
Mike, it’s absolutely insane that you somehow think MY thinking there is reason for hope highlights the core of the TEAM’S problems.
How I am in any way related to the team’s problems when I am purely an outside observer that has absolutely no impact on their day to day affairs is beyond my understanding.
Also, it’s Delusional… not Dilussional. I’m not swallowing the pile of shit either by the by, if you’re aware, I’ve made regular references to changes I think the Leafs need to make, but I also don’t think it makes any sense to continually operate from a perspective that insists EVERYTHING the team does is wrong.
Most people seem to operate from one end or the other of the spectrum. Either the Leafs are glaringly incompetent, or they can do no wrong. It’s amazingly frustrating to me that very few people seem capable of recognizing some level of middle ground. You don’t have to throw the baby out with the bathwater to rebuild the team, and I think most NHL GM’s would agree a fair number of the Leafs assets, as they currently stand, have quite a bit of worth around the league.
No one is asking you to take anything any more. By all means, stop taking it. It’s a voluntary decision you’re making. Feel free to disconnect at any point in time.
As for your amazement at how I (or any other Leafs fan) behaves… it’s called being a fan. I over analyze the team, and yes I hope they actually improve to the point of being successful at some point. I’m glad they have players like White, Ponikarovsky, and Kessel… even if the team as a whole is playing like crap right now.
I don’t really see what’s wrong with that sentiment… and I don’t particularly want to either. So rather than railing against my incomprehensible way of looking at things, why not just ignore me?
By kenny
on Nov 20, 2009
Hey, Mike. Note how Steve said “the cupboard isn’t that bare”, not “the cupboard is full.” He’s not as delusional as you are blind with rage. I hope you don’t have to handle any sharp objects for a living and/or recreation.
By Mike Walton
on Nov 20, 2009
Look, spin my statements “blind rage”, seems the same amount of objectivity that makes you support a belief that this isn’t an absolute cluster fuck of a mess…again. Yeah, I’m the one with objectivity issues, lol.
Steve, you ARE a part of the problem when you squeeze out inane rants that imply anything but absolute panic and frustration…seriously, do you work for MLSE?
Middle ground? Middle ground? Are you out of your freaking mind?
Being a fan is one thing, making a cows ear out of a flaming bag of shit is something else entirely.
The team was just humiliated by the (now) second worst team in the league, playing without their top scorer, and a thrid string goaltender.
The cupboard isn’t bare, it’s full of botulism infected p-reserves.
By Steve
on Nov 22, 2009
And they’ve beaten two of the four conference finalists from last season in the past two weeks… I guess that makes the “flaming bag of shit” thing just as ridiculous as losing to the worst team in the league?
All I’m saying is things aren’t as bad as they appear. Losing all but 4 games at this point in the season is absolutely atrocious by any measure. That I have no quarrel with. What I don’t agree with is the presumption that there is zero young talent on the squad, or in the system.
I reject the idea that the Leafs are back to business as usual in the dealing away youth for right now, because in trading away draft picks over the next two seasons for a player that is 22, I don’t really see that as a huge risk long term.
I’m not myopically drinking the kool-aid. I have yet to confirm the fact that Gustavsson is the goalie of the future. He’s looked good at points, but he still flails around his crease and gets by on reflexes and size alone. His positioning is often suspect, and he looks like garbage in the shoot out so far.
Toskala has had two … maybe three… decent games all season, and that doesn’t really make him a viable second option.
I still think the team needs a dose of a power forward up front on their scoring units.
I’m not a fan of Stajan or Blake. I don’t particularly find Mitchell all that impressive.
I also don’t recall spinning any of your “arguments” as blind rage. I said that you’re implying I’m part of the problem (which I think is nuts). How I contribute to whatever problems you observe within the organization is beyond me. Your level of belligerent vitriol is best directed at the people in positions of responsibility. I’m not the one making any of the decisions.
Your complete inability to acknowledge any of my previous points that disagree with decisions made by the Leafs front office indicates to me that you want to disagree with me much more than you feel like having anything close to a rational or reasonable discussion.
I also fail to see how looking for shades of gray results in someone being “out of their freaking mind”. If you only see blackness everywhere, you’re pretty close to the clinical definition of depression. Perhaps that’s only in hockey terms, but seriously, I’m not the one that’s hell bent on ignoring any positive indicators.
You also aren’t capable of “ignoring” me… so I guess I’ll do the reasonable thing and take my own advice.