The Best Thing Matt Stajan Has Done All Year Is Lower His Trade Value To Zero
November 14th, 2009 by SteveAssists in the box score aside, Matt Stajan is unbelievably ruining what he produced last season. Unbelievable that is, if you expected him to succeed this season. Let’s be honest here folks, Matt Stajan is not a whiz at the offensive end of the ice. He makes some nice passes once in a while, but he’ll never be mistaken for a point per game player. He hasn’t scored a goal since the 3rd game of a season that is now 16 games old. He’s spent the majority of the last week playing on the 4th line after getting an initial chance to centre Phil Kessel and Jason Blake. He was replaced in that spot by John Mitchell for chrissakes.
Now… he’s going to put up points as Kessel gets his scoring feet under him. This is illustrated admirably by last night’s effort in which Stajan registered 2 assists despite making both passes on the Leafs side of centre. The first of the two was a diving poke check/back pass at his own blue line to Jeff Finger, a defensive effort in reality, not an offensive one. Let’s be realistic here, Kessel creates his own goals, and Stajan doesn’t seem all that integral to the process.
Checking line centre you say? Well unfortunately Stajan has the worst +/- of any Leaf forward at -7. Contrast that with his line mates for most of this year, Jason Blake is a -3, Phil Kessel is a +2, but Viktor Stålberg is a -5, and Jiri Tlusty is a -2. His production level matches the combined rookie wingers he’s playing with?
Stajan has been on the ice for 15 goals for the Leafs. 9 of those have come on the power play though. Meanwhile the opposition has scored 16 goals against his line, with only 3 of those coming while the Leafs were short handed. When he’s on the ice the Leafs have an even strength goals for/against ratio of 0.46 - if you compare that to say Alexei Ponikarovsky (1.71), Phil Kessel (1.33), Lee Stempniak (0.92), Mikhail Grabovski (0.86), Jason Blake (0.75), or even John Mitchell (0.73) you begin to realize Stajan leaves a lot to be desired when he’s out on the ice.
PK numbers and other stuff
So in examining the Leafs PK results so far this season, a few things are obvious on the defensive side of the ledger. Jeff Finger needs to play on the PK more, as do Ian White and Garnet Exelby. Luke Schenn is passable, and then we have Francois Beauchemin.
We (or perhaps the Leafs) really do need to rethink the allocation of Beauchemin’s minutes. He has skated on the PK more than any player for the Leafs, and yet he is on the ice for goals against most frequently. The opposition has scored a PP goal with Beauchemin on the ice every 4:24 of PP time. In comparison to Finger (9:32), White (6:32), Komisarek (6:13), that’s a LOT. That means for a team of Francois Beauchemins, in 15 minutes of PK time (the amount they are penalized per game), the Leafs would be giving up around 3.5 PP goals a game. A team of Jeff Fingers would give up roughly 1.6 PP goals per game. Who would you rather have on the ice?
Obviously this is an over simplification, as the situation suggested would never occur, but it does illustrate the point I am making. Let Beauchemin focus on his 5-on-5 play, and the PP, both of which he needs to work on anyway. Giving him time to ruin his statistics playing a role he doesn’t excel at doesn’t make sense to me.
During his last full season with the Ducks, he did lead the team in PK minutes, but he was playing predominantly with Chris Pronger and Samuel Pahlsson - both of whom played more PK minutes per game than Beauchemin. That might skew his stats just a little bit. Of course, the funny thing is, despite their obvious faith in his defensive game, Beauchemin had the second worst +/- on the team at -9 that season. He was on the ice for 44 goals against while short handed, while no other Duck was out there for over 30. Pronger was on the ice for 29, and Pahlsson for 24.
I’m beginning to wonder why we’ve emulated their usage of him.
Posted in Player Analysis, Stat Analysis
16 Responses to “The Best Thing Matt Stajan Has Done All Year Is Lower His Trade Value To Zero”
By Mike
on Nov 14, 2009
another point to raise on Stajan’s game in particular last night. On my count and I was watching the game on PVR at 1 am so I might be out here, but the Hawks iced the puck 6 times and with the tired group we lost every one of those faceoffs Stajan at least 4 times. His 38 % is just not good enough, overall he is over 50% but it’s like a goalie making key saves it’s not about how many it’s about when and where.
Luke Schenn is a minus 8 in losses and plus 3 in wins.
Schenn after 16 games last year was a -3 with 2 assists just like this year. ice time the dramatic difference
Steve, I ask you because you could back up my thoughts with some stats. It seems to me that Schenn is better suited to play opposite the puck carrying defensemen. Simple game knock the player off the puck and give it to Kaberle,White, or Van Ryan last year. When he is playing with Exelby or Finger ( and maybe its not about playing the left side as Grapes insists ) it doesn’t seem to work.
By Steve
on Nov 14, 2009
Well I would say based on anecdotal evidence (i.e. the Kane goal last night) he is not a great choice to be carrying the puck up the ice in front of his own net.
According to NHL.com’s giveaway stats he makes one every 28:41 of ice time though, so that would be roughly once every 2 games based on his ice time so far this year. I have a hard time buying that - but can’t do much statistically to argue against it.
He seems to be crumbling a bit under all the pressure being foisted on him, and I don’t know if the Leafs really thought about how that can wear on a young kid at this stage of his life.
If he turns into another also ran defender (and for a lot of Leaf fans) he’s already becoming that, well that’s just sort of sad. He was probably not mentally prepared for the contrast between his successful season last year, and his disappointing one this year. He’s probably questioning his abilities, and his progression as a player.
If Wilson and Zettler can keep his head level, then hopefully he’ll be ok, but I’m not sure if that’s possible, and it’s sort of worrisome at this stage of proceedings.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll keep saying it. Last season’s promotion was a mistake, and he should probably go to the minors to sort out his game. He’s going to be over-exposed reallllly quickly in Toronto if he keeps screwing up on a national stage like he is. It might mess him up mentally a bit when he goes down, but it will help him earn some confidence back, and hopefully get back to his game.
By Mike
on Nov 14, 2009
Kane’s goal last night is certainly not going to help Schenn’s confidence ( Schenn had officialy zero give aways last night huh)
I have to give some of the blame to Wilson on this one.
First he pulled A Paul Maurice 4th line with 3rd d pair, ( Belak’s line and Wozniewski was a Maurice Fav ) compounding my thoughts of Schenn’s partner as he had Orr or Wallin as alternate options to Exelby.
2nd. I know it was early but a timeout after the icing would have helped. That group fresh would have had a hard time with the Hawks speed and tired they could have saved time by just dropping the puck at center ice and calling it 1-0.
It may be just confidence but I see Schenn taking longer to get the puck moving. It seems that instead of getting the puck to the first option he is looking for the better option. Which would be great except the pass ends up not happening or going between his 2 options.
By LeafFan1989
on Nov 14, 2009
Toronto is a tough market to play in and with every mistake getting amplified on national television, Schenn isn’t getting a fair shot at trying to pull together. He should be sent down to play with the marlies. Play the game against weaker opponents and get his confidence back up. Thats the only option and as for stajan. Hes the most useless piece of crap we’ve had since ryan hollweg. Its a good thing hes a UFA, i hope Burke can get at least a 4th rounder for him.
By HockeyCentric
on Nov 14, 2009
Do you think Burke really meant it when he said something to the effect of, “Stajan is a top-6 forward whether people believe it or not.”
When he said that in the pre-season, I thought he had to be saying it for some unknown reason - because anyone who watched even a handful of Leaf games last year could tell that Stajan’s production wasn’t indicative of his talent level. He rode on the coattails of Poni and Antropov for quite awhile.
I firmly believe his talent level should make him a third line centre on a reasonably productive line, even though he isn’t a defensive wizard like Pahlsson was as Anaheim’s third line centre.
So really - has Burke’s hope all along been to trade this guy? Maybe the idea was to play the daylights out of him this year and swing him at the deadline for a 2nd? I have to think that Stempniak also falls into that category, of players who Burke has identified as upcoming free agents who may command some value at the deadline.
By Steve
on Nov 14, 2009
Stajan might be a 2nd line forward on a crappy NHL team. He isn’t a 1st line forward anywhere to my eyes. He lacks the ability to produce his own offense. He doesn’t create enough. He doesn’t bring enough physicality to the table. He isn’t HARD to play against. He just ends up making everyone look better around him through his own absence of awesomeness… including the other team!
Ok he’s probably an AVERAGE to above average NHL player. I hate him because he represents everything that is wrong with the Leafs currently to my eyes. Over-valued, under-performing, players that buy all the crap they read about themselves in the press. He’s as entitled as they come on this team, and I’m a tad sick of it.
There are only 13 forwards in the ENTIRE NHL with a worse +/- than Matt Stajan. He is actually +2 in his last 3 games, so he’s sliding up that list!
Prior to his 2 assists last night he had a huge total of 2 even strength points in 15 games. That is NOT the production of a top 6 forward.
By gary roberts
on Nov 14, 2009
It is evident and obvious what needs to be done; but for some strange reason it is not.
Stajan, along with Blake, Poni, and others should be gone and trying to somehow recoup something for them is fucking moronic.
The other GM’s are not stupid and wouldn’t want any of these clowns on their teams.
Here is what I would do:
Stålberg Bozak Kessel
Hanson Grabovski Tlusty
Deveaux Mitchell Kulemin
Orr Ondrus Rosehill
Kaberle Komisarek
Beauchemin White
Finger Schenn
The Monster
The rest, either trade them for some pucks or waive them; but I rather have this team on the ice and I think they would do a hell of a lot better than the old crap.
By gary roberts
on Nov 14, 2009
Steve, forgot to say band on about number 14 and great stats to back up your point.
Cheers!
By TeddyDupuis
on Nov 14, 2009
Are we really saying Luke Schenn is a possible also-ran defenseman? Some of these comments I’m hearing are pathetic. Luke Schenn is a going to be a monster for the Leafs for years to come. He’s a shut down man, and he will eat up ice time soon enough. His confidence is obviously a bit shaken, but he is not doubting his abilities. Maybe a trip to the Marlies is what he needs, maybe what’s happening now is what he needs. He should not be playing with Exelby or Finger.
And to be honest, I thought the first few games of the season, Beauchemin was brutal and made Luke look bad. I am much more concerned about Beauchemin\s defensive play than Schenn’s.
Stajan, Stemper, Finger, Exelby, and even Hagman lately and Kulemin (though I like his hustle) have been playing like complete jokes.
By EIshockeyman
on Nov 15, 2009
I watched the Moose Marlie game tonite and Tlusty was by far the most NHL ready and best player on the ice for either team. Reimer played well in net and was named second star but Tlusty was the premiere Marlie,playing a regular shift peanalty killing and playing the point on the PP. I say bring him up and let him play big minutes. there is speculation being promoted by Berger and company he may be a career Ahler. He is only 21 years old and is the youngest of the so called prospects and has outplayed then at the American league level this year. the next player that seems NHL ready is Hanson and then Stalberg, while Bozak needs tolearn the Pro game. I see many on here wanting him brought up but he is not ready yet. If he was BB would have him there. I also saw Jiri Mikus tonite and of the defenseman he appeared to have yje most upside, all he has to do is pack on pounds to fill out and get used to the Pro game. Hemakesgood decisions with the puck and has good upside in regard to skill. He makes the simple play and does not get himself in trouble.
Let me close by saying all these people who have suddenly turned on Schenn to take a deep breathe and cool it. He will be a good defenseman, right now he is experienceing what most second year players go through, they have to learn to respect the game and work harder to be successful. He will be a good top four Dman but it is Leaf nation that have made him into something he is not.
By BCapp
on Nov 15, 2009
Hockey man:
You think Mikus is better/more NHL ready than Frogren? (I’ve never seen/been to a Marlie’s game)
By Steve
on Nov 15, 2009
Mikus is not more NHL ready than Frogren. He has more offensive skills and a higher upside, but he’s still quite young and at the NHL level would likely make coverage mistakes that are less detectable in the AHL (due to the broken style of play that abounds on AHL rinks).
I haven’t been to a Marlies game this season, but Mikus made a few mistakes in the pre-season matches I watched. Frogren is dependable in his own end, but is far from flashy. He doesn’t make a lot of huge hits, but he clears the front of the net, and does a solid job of moving the puck up the ice.
Mikus also needs to fill out before his frame is NHL ready for a full season. I think as the AHL season progresses he may wear down quite a bit. He has never played more than 51 games in a season in his pro career, and a large part of NHL and AHL play is repeatability over the long haul. What looks good now, may wear down a lot as the season progresses. Part of adjusting Europeans to the North American game is the heavier workload and higher frequency of games. One of the reasons a lot of players develop some aspects of their game better in North America is the heavier workload with more of a focus on game play. In Europe more time is spent practicing fundamental skills that serve players solidly once they move to the NHL game. It’s a good balance to have as a player develops, which is why I think Gunnarsson and Mikus will blend fairly smoothly into the NHL game as time goes forwards.
Gunnarsson also displayed a high level of skill in his first NHL game last night against the Flames. Mikus is at least a year or two away from being a competent NHL D man.
By Chris
on Nov 15, 2009
Long term, stajan has no place on this team
By greg
on Nov 17, 2009
steve. your a joke and u think u know everything. have fun wrting on a crap site like this while i do it for a job buddy:)
By Steve
on Nov 17, 2009
Wow greg, thanks for the insight. I’m sure your job is glad to have you writing on their crap site.
If you didn’t mean to say that you write for a crap site “for a job”, then your site might be crap because your grasp of English is a tad shoddy.
Either way, I’m glad you derive some amusement from all this. I’ll pencil you in next to Howard Berger, Dave Feschuk, Steve Simmons, and Damien Cox as go to guy for in depth analysis.
If the only thing that implied skill or knowledge was earning a pay cheque doing something, I’d have to leave cooking all my burgers up to all the experts at the local fast food joint.
By TeddyDupuis
on Nov 18, 2009
greg,
You’re a pretty good writer. Excellent capitalization, grammar, and diction. You should keep writing. I thought people who hate on athletes are jokes; I wonder how big of a loser actually hates on bloggers for the Leafs.
Steve knows a lot because he does research. You should leave a link to your awesome writings, so Steve can learn from a pro.