Stajan’s Stay Brief - Mitchell Up Next Alongside Kessel
November 5th, 2009 by SteveOne game, zero points, end result - one chance wasted. Consider me amongst the group that wasn’t surprised to see that Matt Stajan’s opportunity to ride shotgun with offensive dynamo Phil Kessel was brief. What I am surprised by is the fact that the Leafs have deigned John Mitchell the next most worthy centre to play alongside Phil the Thrill.
Mitchell saw a couple of shifts alongside Kessel towards the end of Tuesday’s game, and looked dangerous on numerous occasions, using his ample speed and size to drive the net while Kessel waited patiently for rebounds or chances from further out. Mitchell is more physical than Stajan, but he is also less of a set up man. He also has a far less productive record than Stajan does from an offensive perspective. Thus highlighting even further that the Leafs lack a true number 1 centre to play alongside Kessel.
Upon further analysis, it becomes apparent that Wilson and his coaching staff are attempting to use Kessel to jump start a moribund group offensively. Rather than playing him alongside the skaters who are already producing, he is being dropped in as support alongside those that have done little to nothing offensive so far this season.
Matt Stajan has 3 goals so far this year, all of which came in the first 3 games of the season. Jason Blake only has 1 goal, and even that was scored from an odd angle and had no real right going in short side. In essence, the Leafs played Kessel alongside the least dangerous of their offensive forward options.
Loathe to break up lines that work, Grabovski and Ponikarovsky continue to skate together, alternating between Kulemin and Hagman as a 3rd line mate. Lee Stempniak found himself bounced around a tad, but in the end most of his production has come from the power play anyway, so moving him around 5 on 5 doesn’t change much.
Currently the Leafs have more trigger men than they do set up men, and the set up men they have are lacking. Kessel, Blake, Hagman, Ponikarovsky, Stempniak, Kulemin, and Grabovski are all - to a varying degree - shooters. Even John Mitchell is known more for his shot offensively than his passing abilities. Of that group, Jason Blake, and Mikhail Grabovski have more assists than they do goals, but that has more to do with a lack of finish than it does a prediliction to passing.
Unfortunately that leaves Stajan as the obvious candidate to fill the role of Kessel’s waiter, and/or jock strap caddy. This is a serious problem. Add to that the lack of any real physical presence amongst the Leafs top 6 forwards, and you begin to realize why the Leafs are definitely a work in progress.
Good teams are balanced teams. They need to have a few shooters, a few danglers, a few passers, and a few power forwards in order to produce consistently. Good lines are made up of a mix of skill sets. Consider the best lines in recent memory (in handy dandy NHL10 terminology courtesy EA Sports):
Tanguay, Forsberg, Hejduk = Playmaker/Dangler, Playmaker/Power Forward/Dangler, Sniper
Naslund, Morrison, Bertuzzi = Dangler/Sniper, Grinder/Playmaker, Power Forward
Perry, Getzlaf, Ryan = Power Forward/Sniper, Power Forward/Playmaker, Power Forward/Sniper.
Kessel, Savard, Lucic = Sniper/Dangler, Grinder/Dangler/Playmaker, Power Forward
It is also apparent that many of these top end players are dynamic, and often play two roles. Here is how I would describe the make up of the top end forwards for the Leafs:
Kessel = Dangler/Sniper
Blake = Ineffective Sniper/Dangler
Hagman = Grinder/Sniper
Stajan = Grinder/Playmaker
Ponikarovsky = Sniper/Power Forward
Grabovski = Sniper/Dangler
Kulemin = Sniper/Power Forward
Stempniak = Grinder/Sniper
Mitchell = Grinder/Sniper
1 freaking playmaker and 1 freaking power forward. That’s a problem. Enter Hanson, Bozak, Stålberg, Tlusty
Hanson = Power Forward
Bozak = Dangler/Playmaker
Stålberg = Dangler/Sniper/Power Forward
Tlusty = Dangler/Playmaker/Sniper
that’s two potential power forwards, and two potential playmakers. Things won’t work for the Leafs particularly well until they have a more balanced line up.
But at least they have Jonas Gustavsson… when he finally gets a shut out they’ll finally get another victory (hopefully).
Posted in Player Analysis, Prospects
15 Responses to “Stajan’s Stay Brief - Mitchell Up Next Alongside Kessel”
By EIshockeyman
on Nov 5, 2009
Great assessment! I beleive you have something there. I am of the belief that I would give Tlusty a shot with kessel and I think you may see some real chemistry. Put skill with skill. I think one of the problems that Tlusty has had in his brief sojurns with the team is that he has never been matched up with a skill guy. I would hate to see him go to another team and blossom.
By Chris
on Nov 5, 2009
I’m already thinking about next year, Kadri and Kessel together, hopefully with a power forward on the other wing. I think those two would work well together
By Marco
on Nov 5, 2009
I already think that Kulemin-Stajan-Kessel would be a good set up. I think Kulemin’s board presence, backchecking and willingness to go in front of the net makes him an ideal person on that line or Poni too.
By Dan
on Nov 5, 2009
Ok, so Stajan plays one game. The line doesn’t produce a goal and they’re done? WTF is this, Ottawa?
all this and Kessel took 19 shots at the net? 10 which were shots, 2 which missed the net, and 7 blocked. Sounds to me like we have a set up man who gives Kessel the puck, we just need a guy to go to the net and put that rebound away and get in the way of the goalie. Blake’s never going to do that. The guy I think can do that is Poni. I think you’ve singled out the wrong guy here. Give the line a chance to gel and yes, leave a line that is producing together. 1 game and the line produces a lot of chances and everyone’s already pulling them apart.
By Steve
on Nov 5, 2009
Dan, 2 things. First - I didn’t single out Stajan, Ron Wilson and his staff did. They’re the one replacing him with Mitchell, not I.
Secondly, throughout the posting, I pointed out that Stajan is really the only set up guy on the club right now, so I actually agree with you that he should be the one playing with Kessel and that Blake is the problem. I agree with Marco in the assessment that a player like Kulemin or Ponikarovsky would complete the line better than Blake does because of their willingness to go and park themselves in front of the net and fish for rebounds.
All of that being said, I don’t think any of the current Leaf forwards is ideal for this set up role (including Stajan) long term. I don’t think he possesses the necessary skill level in order to skate with Kessel.
We’ll make due with what we’ve got for now though, so hopefully they can figure it all out.
As for Kessel’s 19 attempts on net, it’s not like most of those were set up by Stajan. In fact I would argue Kessel did most of the set up himself. He was mainly rushing down the wing from centre ice, or playing the half boards on the power play. Blake was getting him the puck more often on the rush than Stajan was, and on the PP I’d say he played patty cake with Kaberle and Stempniak at the point more than he did much of anything down low with Stajan.
Just my observations, you don’t have to agree with them to participate in the discussion. Glad you’re contributing.
By Gooner4ever
on Nov 5, 2009
To be honest, the first thing we need to realsie is that Blake sucks and should be demoted. Today. Now.
How can Burke say that you will be held accountable for your play if he allows Blake to stay in the lineup (and on the first line) when he has one goal all season??
Undermines the whole team and probably hurts the morale of players such as Bozak and Stalberg who have been demoted.
Secondly, I agree that one game may be a little unfair on Stajan. However, giving Mitchell a chance won’t hurt. It’s not like he could do any worse in a one game situation, but it will only work as long as they get rid of Blake as well. blake-Mitchell-Kessel won’t work as well as Poni-Mitchell-Kessel for example. But then that’s only my opinion.
By BCapp
on Nov 5, 2009
I agree that the most important change has to be Kuleimin or Poni on the other wing. We need the ‘power forward’ crashing the net for kessel’s frequent rebounds (his release is to fast for goalies to get the glove on, usually just get the body on it).
Stajan was trying to do that on Tuesday, so maybe Mitchell will do a better job, but to be frank I want my center setting him up, not playing a situation he is not good at.
This leads me into a questions I have been wanting to ask you for a bit Steve, but have never got around to:
When I picture next year I almost always see a #1 FA center. We always talk about this 20 mil$ we will hopefully have and I think thats where to spend it. Some say thats Kadri’s position, but he’ll need development time IMHO measured in years not days (he’s not producing 75 NHL pts next year…). So my question is first do you agree we should go after a #1 center, and who is available/who do you think will fit. A quick scan by me came up with:
UFA:
Savard (I think the Bs’ll resign him, but otherwise lets go for it. It’ll probably cost us 7-8 mil)
Marleau (If possible… 7 mil)
O. Jokinen (Hasn’t produced in a few years…does he even fit?)
RFA:
Backstrom (He’s getting resigned…but as a side note, do you think they can afford Backstrom AND Semin next year?)
Toews (He’s there captain, he’s getting resigned. Of the three (Kane, Keith, Toews) I think Kane moves, they’ll get what he’s worth though…)
This is kinda what I see/hope for next year
Tlusty-#1 FA 8 mil- Kessel
Frat Pack
Stemps-Pahlson-esque FA 2-mil-Hagman
Orr-Pure bruiser/enforcer FA (If not Wallin resigned cheap) 750 000 - Rosehill
thats 10-11 mil spent on Forwards
Kaberle-Komi
Beauch-Schenn
White (resigned for 2.5)-Gunarrson
Cheap FA or development from minors
Thats about another 4-4.5 mill (Gunarson, increase in White, and 7th man)
So we have about 5 mil on Goalies
Monster (if he keeps it up resigned in December 4 years/12 mill) 3 mill/year
Career 1-B goalie (ala Nittymaki) 1.5 mil
This way Monster plays about 50 games as he is still developing, with a guy to push him if he stumbles.
By BCapp
on Nov 5, 2009
PS ideally we resign White around January or sooner while he is getting top 4 minutes. Otherwise he’ll probably leave if he doesn’t think he can get top 4 minutes with the Leafs… At least I would in his shoes (err skates)
Cheers,
BCapp
By Ecks
on Nov 5, 2009
Huh, good thoughts.
By BCapp
on Nov 5, 2009
I forgot Finger. So we wouldn’t need a FA D.
By Mike
on Nov 5, 2009
I’m not a big fan of Stajan, but have you seen the pass to Grabovsky in Anaheim last week. it was an A level set up man assist.
Mitchel I I I have nothing.
The Savard to Kessel thing is way overrated. A great goal scorer finds open ice and is found whether your Gretzky or Mitchel. Its Kessels speed that gets him in the clear not the pass.( conceded sometimes it is the pass) Everybody that watches the leafs save the coaching staff sees that Blake is the problem not Stajan. To be fair to Blake it’s his style that’s not a fit for the line not his play (its his play also of course)
By Steve
on Nov 5, 2009
Mike… if everybody that watches the Leafs save the coaching staff sees that Blake is the problem and not Stajan, I wouldn’t continually harp on the fact that I think Stajan and Blake are both horribly over-rated.
I don’t really think EITHER player works well with Kessel because Stajan isn’t particularly skilled in the offensive end, and Blake is a me first shooter that appears snake bit.
The fact that you’ve got 1 assist in your mind to confirm for you that Stajan’s a stellar player is a bit ridiculous. One could just as easily point out one of Blake’s good goals and say he’s a top notch sniper who thus deserves first line minutes.
Anecdotal evidence isn’t really of much use in a statistical analysis, I’m sorry.
By Dan
on Nov 5, 2009
Steve, yes I see what you’re saying.
At least another week together would be worth while, but switching them up will keep guys motivated to produce to get some playing time with Kessel. Hopefully it pays off.
BCapp, there wont be any RFAs in TO next year. We would have to get our 1st rounder back for the 2011 draft, and I can’t see Boston giving it back. But I like that you’re looking ahead and aren’t rushing Kadri.
Steve, always look forward to reading your blogs, keep up the great work. Also looking forward to your November predictions. October didn’t go the way we hoped, but no one could have predicted that the Leafs would come out that flat. The confidence just went out the window after the Montreal loss. A lot of the teams that played 8 or 9 preseason games got off to bad starts. Vancouver, Toronto, Detroit, Boston. The other guys turned it around but Toronto couldn’t do it. Meanwhile teams that had short preseasons got off to good starts - Chicago (4 games), Ottawa (6), Buffalo (6), Avs (6). weird, eh?
By ken
on Nov 5, 2009
If I’m not mistaken, up front, at the “high” end, Hagman, Blake, Grabovsky, and Kessel are the ones on payroll next season. I know Burke and Wilson are interested in making the playoffs this year, but I hope these chemistry experiments are as much about establishing ideal lines next season, and as a result, figuring out to whom contracts might be offered.
I really enjoyed your breakdown, and speaking in general terms, I’m hoping to eventually see what we saw in Anaheim a couple of years ago: two scoring lines, one with power, the other with finesse. Obviously, Kessel is on the latter line.
By Mike
on Nov 5, 2009
I was merely pointing out that Stajan has it in him if he is playing with a guy like Kessel. The one assist is recent and i’m sure there is more examples. I started out by saying i’m not a Stajan fan but if you read that I think Stajan is a stellar player read my post again.
He is the best we got. I know that isn’t saying much but one game wasn’t enough.
My point is maybe Kessel makes Savard better not the other way around. A couple of weeks Maybe Stajan is ( I cant believe i’m falling for this again ) a number one center.