Leafs A La Kessel
November 4th, 2009 by Steve
Ok so Phil the Thrill will probably be worth it if his debut is any indication. He took a huge hit from Mattias Ohlund, and then came back and finished the game, with no word of complaint. He finished with 10 shots on goal, which amounts to one quarter of everything the Leafs threw at Tampa Bay goaltender Antero Nittymaki… and that was including the kitchen sink.
Unfortunately the Leafs only scored 1 goal after firing those 41 shots on goal… and it was on a tip in off a Tampa Bay D man’s skate. So why do the Leafs suck so bad at scoring goals? Well for starters, despite the fact that they had 8 power plays, including a brief 5 on 3, they couldn’t score any goals. Where did the vaunted top of the league PP go? To be fair, it’s a bit of a mirage, built on the basis of 5 on 3 scoring, and one crazy game against the Anaheim Ducks.
The Leafs have scored 4 goals in seven situations where they had a 5-on-3 advantage, and another 2 while working 4-on-3, leading the NHL in both categories. That means of their PP goals, only 8 came while playing 5-on-4. That actually ranks them 20th in the NHL, tied with Anaheim. So let’s face it, when it comes to the more typical, mundane man advantage situations, the Leafs are below par. In fact, when the Leafs have to face more than 3 players on the opposition, they have the lowest goal total in the NHL at 24. The next team on that list is Nashville who have 25.
If you score fewer goals than Nashville you have a SERIOUS problem on offense. Let’s look at the culprits so far and figure out who is likely to break out of their funk. I don’t personally think the secondary scoring is likely to step up, but it’s an issue when two of the players on your top line have combined for 4 goals and 10 assists and a -14 rating after 13 games. That means your top line averages slightly over 1 point (not 1 goal… that’s 1 point) and worse than a -1 per game. That’s REALLY FREAKING BAD.
4 of the top 6 shooters on the Leafs in terms of shot totals, have a shooting percentage below 9%. Ponikarovsky and Hagman are the only forwards really doing their part from a goal scoring perspective as each one is on pace to score over 30 goals. Lee Stempniak is on pace to score 25 so he’s doing alright.
Jason Blake is on pace to score 6 goals… jee I wonder who part of the problem is?
Matt Stajan is on pace to fire 155 shots on goal, and he has 3 goals… but he hasn’t scored a goal since the 3rd game of the season, and 2 of them came in the first game of the year. His shot total is on pace to be the highest of his career, but his goal total will still be under 20 at the current effort level.
The Leafs still need a power forward that drives the net and plays with some jam. This is most evident on the Kessel line, as it was left to Matt Stajan to try and set effective screens, thus taking him away from what he does best in working the boards and passing to set up shooters. If Blake was removed from the line, and a player like Hanson, Stålberg, or Kulemin were put in his place, there might be some more chemistry to be found on the line.
On the positive side of the ledger, the Leafs received a strong game from Jonas Gustavsson, who registered a career high .935 SV%. He looked quieter in net than he has in every game this season, and aside from a bad play on the opening goal, he was pretty much faultless through the entire game. He needs practice playing the puck, and he needs to continue to focus on his rebound control, but overall… he did a bang up job, and he deserves the start on Friday.
The Leafs are undefeated in regulation in their past 5 games. That’s a good thing. Now if only they could score some goals and start winning.
Posted in Game Analysis, Player Analysis, Stat Analysis
5 Responses to “Leafs A La Kessel”
By glgbill
on Nov 4, 2009
Moral(e) victory…
Looking forward to Friday.
By The Meatriarchy
on Nov 4, 2009
The debut of Kessel further highlights the weakness we have up front. Lots of second line players not any first line players up to Kessel’s talent and as a result guys playing on the third line (last night Hagman and Mitchell) who aren’t legitimate third liners in the Burke mold.
And forgive me for sounding like a broken record but what have Stajan and Blake done this year to deserve to play w Kessel? How do the other players like Grabbo, Poni, Hagman et. al feel? They have been solid over the past week and are seeing their ice time taken by two under performers who won the lottery and get ice time with Kessel.
Something has got to happen with this glut of second liners soon. And by that I mean some have to be shipped out.
By LeafFan1989 on Nov 4, 2009
We have waaaay too many second liners. A decent fourth line and maybe 2 third liners. Wallin is a good defensive forward and hes cheap, he doesn’t make many mistakes. The fourth line is fin as is. The ideal second line would be Grabovski, Ponikarovsky and Kulemin. But Grabovski has come on strong off late and i think he deserves a chance with Kessel.
By Jambo
on Nov 4, 2009
I wouldnt mind seeing hagman as the other winger. I know he’s a RW as well but he’s a left hand shot i believe anyway so it’s not like that’s a big deal.
By Mike Walton
on Nov 5, 2009
That was a terrific performance by Kessel, but let’s get real. In his last season, his only truly good one, he shot the puck at a rate of 1 shot per 5 min played. To expect him to continue getting even close to 10 shots a game is foolish.
Also, it is well known that the first game back from a prolonged injury is the best out of 10, as the player is playing on pure adrenalin. Expect a big reduction in his impact going forward, until he gets back into game shape.
The fact remains, this woeful team of misfit toys is going nowhere, Kessels or no Kessel, and to think otherwise is to count on the not just unlikely, but the near impossible.
Until this roster includes some legit top line talent (proven), the future remains bleak. Adding one offensive forward, and a host of checking Dmen has proven to be a disaster, compound this with the loss of draft picks, and you have yourself a class A clusterfuck.
Consider me a realist, not a basher, unless you have something other than hope and bluster to indicate otherwise.
The game vs. CAR will be telling as no doubt both teams will be doing their utmost to win. Fortunately the Canes will be without their best forward, so the Leafs stand a chance of stealing a game from the team most likely to challenge them for the toilet bowl Cup.