Nathan Horton Trade Rumours
October 19th, 2009 by Steve
I’ve been arguing for a while now that the Leafs desperately need a power forward amongst their top six. I haven’t written about it copiously on this blog, but I’ve been repeating the mantra on PPP, and I strongly believe that if the Leafs wish to compete while playing Burke style hockey, the truculence Burke wants to see night in and night out has to come from some of his top end players.
Defensively the Leafs have Komisarek, Schenn, Beauchemin, and Finger all playing the role of pugnacious blue liner from time to time. Ian White plays bigger than he is, Garnet Exelby makes the occasional cameo with attached bad pass, and Tomas Kaberle will continue to be soft on D, but overall, the blue line doesn’t come across as a pack of shrinking violets anymore.
The bottom six forwards might not be amazingly skilled from a defensive standpoint, but with Orr, Rosehill, and Mayers they can hold their own in the fisticuffs department. Mitchell, Wallin, and Primeau might not drop them all that often, but they aren’t all about to be beaten to a pulp either.
Then we have the top six: Matt Stajan, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Jason Blake, Niklas Hagman, Lee Stempniak, Mikhail Grabovski, Viktor Stålberg, and Nikolai Kulemin thus far. Phil Kessel, Jiri Tlusty, and Tyler Bozak may eventually make an appearance. Not one of those guys would leap out as power forward material. Stempniak hits on occasion, Ponikarovsky and Stålberg are big boys, and Stajan works the boards well… but beyond that they don’t really seem remotely imposing physically.
That is a serious issue. When Burke was with Vancouver he had Todd Bertuzzi, Matt Cooke, and Trevor Linden. In Anaheim he had Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, and Bobby Ryan, not to mention Dustin Penner. In Toronto he has one top six forward who is much over 200 lbs, and none that play like it.
Which brings me to the recent Bruce Garrioch rumour from the Ottawa Sun. Bruce thinks Florida is shopping Nathan Horton after a lack luster start. While not completely improbable, GM Randy Sexton has apparently denied the rumour vociferously.
Horton is a 6′2″ 229 lb beast of a forward, who plays with a bit of a burr under his saddle. He also has seen his goal totals decline steadily since he hit 31 goals 3 years ago. A change of venue might do him some good from a development perspective. The former 3rd overall draft pick is still only 24 years old, and has a lot of years left on his contract, at $4 million per year through 2012-13.
The Leafs picked up some cap relief in the injury news regarding Mike Van Ryn, and they would gain some further breathing room if they did something wild and crazy (sarcastic) like demote Jason Blake to the Marlies.
Trading Nathan Horton would make more sense than one would think for both parties, as Florida is also off to an atrocious start in a season that finds the team looking for new ownership. This could be a cost cutting measure for the Panthers, and if they do re-locate, plummeting to the bottom of the standings might not be a bad plan if they want to market Taylor Hall to a new home rink of fans.
I don’t personally think the rumour has legs at this point, but as the season progresses, stories like this might get up and walk over to inform us they’re real. Here’s hoping the Leafs do finally nab a big man to do some scoring… it’d be nice to see something other than perimeter shooting from the Leafs forwards for once.
Posted in Player Analysis
22 Responses to “Nathan Horton Trade Rumours”
By LeafFan1989
on Oct 19, 2009
If the guy cant perform in Florida, Toronto will be a tough place to play. It takes a special kind of player to play hockey in Toronto, One who is immune to negativity from everywhere and constant, stupid questions from media. Horton is a big guy but he hasn’t done anything and besides, what would we have to give up for him? Our most recent future high draft picks are having their value increased every game while the value of our players is going down every game. I don’t know what Burke could offer them.
By LeafFan1989
on Oct 19, 2009
I mean he hasn’t done anything recently. Kinda seems like Dustin Penner. one good year as a power forward and then a consistent decline in production since.
By Hendy
on Oct 19, 2009
I’m a little partial to this rumour.
He’s a piece to puzzle that you need. He is (was?) the go to guy in Florida at the moment and if he was to perhaps play in a hockey hotbed like Toronto, maybe he thrives.
I have been saying for ages that our forwards have no jam at all and I’d love to see some hitting from someone other than the 4th and sometimes 3rd liners.
I’m all for this. Who do we give up for him? Stajan? Throw in a 3rd rounder? Their point production from last year was similar.
Horton G Pts
2008 Florida NHL 67 45 (55pts over 82 games)
2007 Florida NHL 82 62
2006 Florida NHL 82 62
Stajan G Pts
2008 Toronto NHL 76 55 (59pts over 82 games)
2007 Toronto NHL 82 33
2006 Toronto NHL 82 39
Oh, and if he’s another Dustin Penner, than I hope that Wilson has the effect that Quinn has had on Penner.
5 goals, 9 pts in 7 games? Sounds like he’s off to a great start under the Mighty Quinn.
By bkblades on Oct 19, 2009
I just don’t think the Leafs have much to offer Florida for Horton, even as he’s underachieving. I would assume a high daft pick and a prospect/young player would be the price.
By looshV
on Oct 20, 2009
Florida has been swindled before…..
Look how one-sided that deal looks now, I mean 5 goals on 19 shots…..haha I kid!
In all seriousness I’m hoping they want Grabo and Poni, that would cost them an extra million in salary but give them the potential of a combined 40+(maybe)goals and if they wish, the freedom to let Poni go and free up some money at seasons end. Maybe what these guys are thinking that what they need is a young Russian player-Poni in this case- to play with Frolik and Dvorak. Their deep at center but I personally feel that Grabo could benefit by a move from that position. He’s just not good enough in the face off circle period to maintain a position of that responsibility. The money’s close, you get two young players for losing a young player and the potential for more goals. Do it Florida DO IT!! I know you can…..
By glgbill
on Oct 20, 2009
It’s all in the price. We definitely need some jam in our top six and a motivated Horton could fit the bill. He’s young enough and might respond to a true hockey environment, just as long as he’s not expected to be the second coming of Jesus Christ/Mark Messier.
If Florida is willing to deal for roster players, then go for it. But no futures. We’re thinning that pool faster than we realize.
By The Meatriarchy
on Oct 20, 2009
Steve whether it’s Horton or some other power forward you are correct in your assessment that the Leafs forward complement (as currently constructed) does not meet the Burke mold.
I would go one step further and argue that it is not just the top two lines but the top three lines that still need tinkering to match the type of player that Burke wants.
I have said this before on PPP but it bears repeating the following players are probably not here a year from now (maybe less)
Blake
Stempniak
Mayers
Kulemin
Tlusty
Ponikarovsky
Stajan
That’s 6 regulars and one AHL player. Some of these have expiring contracts and will be UFA’s next year. Some will be dealt and some will (hopefully) banished to the AHL with their horrible contracts. Hopefully their replacements will be upgrades.
Leaving the forwards aside I think the following d-men/goalies will be gone as well:
White (although I love white and would hate to lose him)
Finger (his contract is an albatross there are cheaper guys who can do the same thing)
Frogren (only if they don’t get rid of some other d-men but aside from that he is a serviceable 6-7 man)
XLB - (he was only a take back from the Kubina dea never meant to be a building block of any sort)
Van Ryn (injured or not he will not be back)
Vesa Toskala (natch)
So how many of these players plus bags of pucks would it take to get a Horton or equivalent??
By Leafer
on Oct 20, 2009
Forget Horton and go for Stephen Weiss.
On a side note,with so many defencemen and a struggling offence why not insert Ian White into the forward lineup.Sure he’s small but he can skate and shoot, not to mention he plays with more heart than any of the current forwards.
By Carm
on Oct 20, 2009
I agree with your assessment that the top 6 needs an infusion of size and nastiness but I’m not sure Horton is the guy who would fit the bill. His skill set is outstanding but he is an infuriating player to watch because he usually leaves you wanting more. His effort level is underwhelming on most nights.
Now, maybe that changes in a new environment like Toronto but I have always heard from my pals in the Welland/Thorold area (where Nathan is from) that they are not even sure how much Horton likes playing hockey.
By bkblades on Oct 21, 2009
Hah, this has the potential of being an Adam Dunn moment for the Leafs. “How much do you know about Nathan Horton? Did you know he doesn’t even like hockey? That he has no passion for the game?”
By Tom Cat on Oct 21, 2009
I know. Why don’t the Leafs trade their 1st round draft choice in 2012 and 2013? I also heard a rumour about them going after Howard? For picks and prospect. Well give Detroit the 1st round pick in 2014 and 2015. Maybe they can then save some cash for free agents by not sending anyone to the draft. When their first pick comes around in the 7 or 8th round they can just phone it in.
By Hendy
on Oct 21, 2009
Stajan + a 3rd for Horton. That’s what he’s worth. His point production isn’t as good as you think it is, but he has all the talent to get 30 again.
Stajan needs to go and he is attractive to a lot of teams. 24-25yrs, 60pts player (with lots of ice time), good locker room guy, small contract. To me he doesn’t do anything. Not a setup man, sniper, hitter, fighter, pk specialist, pp specialist, faceoff specialist. He just exists but doesn’t do anything well. I like players that hit and crash the net (like Horton) and he’s never going to do that for us.
By BCapp
on Oct 21, 2009
I’d Stajan and a 3rd for Horton and a 6th or 7th. Its always good to get picks back, and most GM’s will give them up. Obviously the chances of getting someone good in a late round are far lower, but still quite existent.
Look at Stahlberg. What was he 5th round, or 7th or something? With our increased depth at scouting (like the use of increased depth?) I believe we have a shot at cashing in on one of these deals.
By BCapp
on Oct 22, 2009
Steve,
Looking at our prospects, the most NHL ready ‘power forward’ we seem to have is Hanson. Can you see him being a succesful top 6 power forward this year, next year, or the year after?
By Mike Walton
on Oct 25, 2009
Stajan and a 3rd for Horton?
What?
Yeah, no doubt that would be the best offer they could get, and no doubt, even if it were, they’d jump at a chance to move a player for nothing in return, to a conference rival.
If there was a trade for Horton, it would take Stalberg and a first. There’s no way the Leafs can afford to lose another cheap contract for an expensive one, let alone a #1 pick (which they no longer have, so would have to trade another player for it).
Besides, Horton isn’t American, so Burke isn’t interested.
By BCapp
on Oct 25, 2009
Hey Mike,
I am going to try really hard to not be rude, b/c I think it is too common in online message board b/c of anonymity and all…But your tone makes it hard.
In regards to the Stajan +3rd suggestion, I realize it is a bit wishful, but not as ridiculous as you make it seem. For the record other teams generally like a player who score at a 60 point pace (55points for 76 games is 59.3 points for 82 games), for under 2 million dollars! He is a good back checker, and is guess what? Young.
He is outperforming Horton this year 4 pts/7 games vs 3 pts/9 games, and performed roughly even to him last year (55 pts/76 games vs 45 pts/65 games) (prorated to 59.3 pts and 56.7 pts).
So based on recent production they are pretty comparable, with Stajan being the much smaller contract.
According to capgeek.com we have $2,613,729 available in cap space.
Stajan is 1.75 and Horton is 4.00 therefore difference of 2.25, so there is definitely room.
In regards to holding the contract we have a ton of money coming up next year, so fitting this contract in won’t be a problem.
Finally your claim that Burke only likes American players is patently false (and new to me…I have heard it claimed he only likes North Americans, which I am undecided on (look how much effort he put into the Sedins), but American’s alone I have just never heard).
and to show the falsity of the American claim here are the players he brought in over the summer organized by Country
Americans (2):
Kessel
Komisarek
Swedes (2):
Gustavsson
Wallin
Canadians (5)
Orr
Primeau
Exelby
Beachemin
MacDonald
2/9
By BCapp
on Oct 25, 2009
And by the way Mike, I always appreciate when someone disagrees with me, if they can provide me with new information, or maybe just decrease the polarization of group think. But to come in here and be an a$$ about it, helps nothing, is rude, and makes people automatically defensive instead of creating a legitimate discussion.
I’d be happy to discuss hockey with you, and maybe you can change my opinion (I think the leafs will be around # 10 in the East, and # 20-22 in the league by the end of the year). But grow up about it and don’t come in attacking.
Cheers,
BCapp
By Mike Walton
on Oct 25, 2009
Here’s the thing BCapp, the Leafs are 0-8.
That is rude.
Pointing out that they’re awful is not “attacking”, or being “rude”, it’s the truth.
I think you’re confusing my pointing out the reality, which you dislike, with my being rude, or agressive.
Read my post, it’s not agressive, it’s sarcastic, because honestly, trading a player with value (Horton) for a player with no value (Stajan) is simply beyond discussing as being rational. Even you admit this, so why shouldn’t I?
Isn’t making an absurd proposition, then expecting others to entertain it being rude?
The reason the Leafs will not finish 10th is simple, they’re already too deep in the hole. With 3 point games it will be a strugle for the Leafs to place better than 13th in the East. And this is with improved play. Just to do this they’ll have to surmount a considerable point gap, against teams with more skill (FLA).
It will be a dog fight with the Islanders for last in the East.
I’m not saying this to be rude, I’m saying this because the team cannot score, has terrible goaltending, and no reasonable prospects of this improving markedly, beyond wishful thinking.
Yes, the Leafs are playing “better”, but they’re still losing, why? Because, in comparison to the teams they’re playing, they’re just not that good. Do you really think the opposition is at their best facing the team with the 0-8 record? Come on, it’s hardly a game the opposition is “up” for. Should the Leafs truly press them, on the scoreboard, then we’ll see if the Leafs can hang with the competition. As it stands, they can’t even do that. Losing 3-1, without looking totally inept, is not akin to real improvement, it just looks that way because the alternative is watching them getting schooled 7-1.
If anyone needs to “grow up”, it’s the one defending absurd propositions (they admit are absurd) just because it makes them feel better than facing reality.
You’re welcome to whatever you think, I’d I’m welcome to the same.
By BCapp
on Oct 25, 2009
You know what? I take it back. You were not rude. you’re right, you were just the dissenting opinion.
I think your opinion that Stajan has zero value is tarnished by your (justified) negativity surrounding all things Leaf. He is a solid second line center, and Horton has been garbage. I can see them wanting to move him.
In regards to us being that in the whole, going on an 8 game losing streak in the middle of the season is statistically exactly the same as going on one in the beginning of the season.
Lets look at the teams up to 10th in the East.
Fla is 4 points ahead of us, and one game ahead.
NYI is 5 pts, 1 GP ahead
Car is 6 pts, 2 GP ahead (IMHO also the most overrated team in the East)
TB is 8 pts, 1 GP
Atl is 8 pts, = GP
Mtl is 9 pts, 2 GP
that means that we need to win
2 full games more than Fla, 3 more than NYI and Car, 4 more than TB and Atl, and 5 more than Mtl. Usually with more games left
Now I am not saying we are amazing but if we play like a team with confidence, and have mediocre goal tending (which if we can get out of no one else, we CAN get out of Joey Mac see last year in NYI…MEDIOCRE not good), I can see us playing at .500.
Look how we looked in the first game of the season. Look how we looked last night. Both nights we owned the games and got beat by strong goal tending. After the first game, and then the second against Washington are confidence got blown and we started playing like crap.
I still think we are a mediocre team.
In regards to your trade suggestions, IMHO I think you WAY over rate the draft. You suggest us emptying our coffers of prospects for draft picks. I don’t agree/see the advantage of that. I think we have some potential coming through the system that I don’t want to toss away.
Specifically:
Bozak and Hanson were smart signings and I think can develop into solid 3-6 guys (Bozak specifically a mediocre top liner, or weak second liner, with Hanson being a solid second line power forward).
Stahlberg I see on a similar development route to Bozak.
Tlusty is a lot younger than any of us realize b/c we played him early in the NHL. He is only 21. he’s still got plenty of time to develop into what we expect of him and I think he can.
Our back end is deep in D prospects, in Gunnarson, Orestovic, etc.
Our goalie prospects are pretty weak.
But lets look at a possible 10/11 team:
(remeber we have 20 mil and a lot of guys going)
I’ll start with D, b/c it will be basically unchanged.
Kaberle/beach (its the line I think we should play)
Komi/Schenn
Finger/White
Goalies:
Number 1 starter UFA? 4-5 mil$
Gustavsson (I am not ready to count him out yet as you seem to be. He is far from a guarantee but definitely a smart gamble IMHO)
Forwards:
LW-C-RW
Stahlberg-5-7 mil UFA (Savard, Marleau, etc)-Kessel
Hagman-Bozak-Grabs
I honestly haven’t checked out how many players we will have for the bottom 6, but I know we have about 3 returning guys, a bunch of prospects, and about 8 mil, so I am sure we can fill it.
Anywho, I understand seeing reality, and maybe I got a little over defensive, and I apologize.
But I don’t think we need to think we are F***** b/c we lost 8 games straight.
Cheers
By Mike Walton
on Oct 25, 2009
O.k., worthless is harsh. Even as I wrote it, I felt it was easily misinterpreted. But there was a reason I used the term “worthless”.
In comparison to Horton, and as a commodity to the Panthers, Stajan is all but worthless.
I would think (not know) that, if the two were being floated on the market at the same time (which they likely are) Horton is more likely to get the lions share of interest. I do not see Stajan as a decent 2nd line centre on a competitive team, IMO, he’s a 3rd line centre, and a good one, but not more.
Whereas Horton (his recent horrible play not withstanding) has more upside, and can be considered a legitiate 2nd line forward on a contending team.
If ditching salary is the main concern, then the Panthers would be better off taking a prospect, an expiring contract, and a pick, which is what they could get.
Something like Stalberg, a 2nd, and Stajan.
With Booth injured however, I suspect it’s all academic now anyhow.
FWIW, I heard the NYI’s are/were leading the way in landing Horton.
As for the points spread…for me to buy in to your vision, I’d have to truly believe the Leafs will, for the remainder of the season, out perform some, or most, of those teams ahead of them. I don’t.
The worst in the bunch, NYI, is probably every bit as good as the Leafs, and should DP come back, they may be markedly better.
The rest are all better, and will no doubt go through their own slumps, but I do not believe for one second the Leafs are going to go on a tear, and this losing streak will represent a clear anomoly to the remainder of theirt seasons performance.
I don’t know this, but I do believe it.
By BCapp
on Oct 25, 2009
It probably all is academic until we see what happens to Booth.
What does FWIW mean?
In regards to the points spread, I was just pointing out that in the long run we are not very far into the season (5 games/74) is like 7% (I am ball parking that).
I think we are just as good as Fla and NYI, Mtl without Markov, and before the season would have said Atl. I think TB will be a serious team this year.
If we can get good goal tending this year (which is possible from Gustavsson he is still a relative unknown), and improve the forward ranks via one-two trades, and when kessel comes back. I see us being a decent team.
But hey, I just tossed a lot of ifs out there, so lets just wait and see.
I am off, for the day, been nice chatting.
Cheers.
By Leafer
on Oct 26, 2009
R.W needs to change up the lines , here’s my advice.
The two best shooters on the team are Hagman and Poni,so doesn’t it make sense to pair them with our best setup\assist guy in Stajan.He’s skilled at finding the open man and Hagman and Poni have decent shots.
First line:
Hagman Stajan Poni
For the second line, I think we should be looking at young ,high speed,high tempo grouping.Grabovski is not a centermen,and is horrible at faceoffs, move him to the wing.Play Bozak at center with the two speedsters in Stalberg and Grabovski on the wings.
Second Line:
Stalberg Bozak Grabovski
The third line would be a penalty kill line that can possibly chip in with some offense.This is where I get creative,we have too many dmen anyways so move Ian White to forward again.His defensive mind set would help on the PK and his offensive skills may add a boost to the anemic offense.
Third Line:
Tlusty Mitchell White
Fourth line, well thats easy, this is our physical ,enforcement type line.
Fourth line:
Rosehill Wallin Orr
Blake,Stempniak,Primeau,Mayers,Kulemin all sit.
To me, given our current roster these lines give us the best chance at success.Try these lines and hope the boys can develope some chemistry,reevaluate once Kessel returns in 10-15 days.
Do you think R.W will listen to me?