Phil Kessel A Leaf
September 18th, 2009 by Steve
So the Leafs have dealt a first and second round pick from 2010 and a first rounder from 2011 to the Boston Bruins for Phil Kessel, who will be signed to a 5 year $27 million dollar contract - averaging a $5.4 million per season cap hit.
Kessel was drafted 5th overall in the 2006 entry draft and he is turning 22 this year, making him one year older than Leafs prospect Jiri Tlusty. Kessel has already played 3 NHL seasons, skating in at least 70 games in each. Scoring 66 goals and 60 assists for 126 points in 222 games. Last year was his breakout though, where he produced 36 goals, 24 assists, and managed to finish +23 while only taking 16 minutes in penalties.
Before people jump out and say he’s a “risk” I would point out that he is one of only 7 players to produce a season with over 0.5 goals per game before their 22nd birthdays since the 2000-01 season. Those players are Ovechkin, Malkin, Staal, Kovalchuk, Thornton, Nash, and of course Kessel. That would be 3 Hart Trophy Winners, 3 Rocket Richard Trophy Winners, 3 Art Ross Trophy Winners, and 2 Stanley Cup winners. The only one on the list that hasn’t won a major trophy so far is Kessel… and he’s the youngest of the group. I’m guessing he’ll get one before he’s done.
Another point people seem fond of making is how he’s only had 1 good season. Guess what guys he’s actually in his 22nd year of life… so he’s kinda had 2 good seasons considering his age. If you compare his 20 year old season (two years ago), to everyone else in the NHL since 1990-91, you’ll find that only 61 skaters managed the goal and point production (0.23 gpg, 0.45 ppg) he did that year. 61 guys in the past 18 years of hockey. Crappy players like Daniel Sedin, Corey Perry, and Marian Hossa. How, oh how, can we have the belief that this guy is supremely likely to tank it?
Not losing a single player off the roster is a great coup on the part of Brian Burke. This team is built to succeed in the near future, and given the cap space the team has going into next season, they are primed to add some serious pieces to the puzzle to gun for a Stanley Cup.
The Leafs now have only $496,668 in cap space remaining on the upcoming season, but they have $22 million in cap space available for next year. Obviously some of that will be devoted to re-signing RFA’s, so they won’t be rebuilding from scratch, but the fact is, this team only has the following players under contract for next season (either at the NHL or AHL level):
Forwards: Phil Kessel, Jason Blake, Niklas Hagman, Mikhail Grabovski, Colton Orr, Tyler Bozak, Nazem Kadri, Viktor Stålberg, Mikhail Stefanovich, Dale Mitchell, Chris DiDomenico, Alex Berry, Robert Slaney, Richard Greenop, Stefano Giliati, Greg Scott, Darryl Boyce,
Defense: Mike Komisarek, Tomas Kaberle, Francois Beauchemin, Jeff Finger, Luke Schenn, Carl Gunnarson, Juraj Mikus, Jay Rosehill
Goal: James Reimer
That means no NHL starting goalies and a lot of room for competition amongst the forwards. By no means is it certain that many of those AHL or Junior age players will make the Leafs even a year from now. If the Leafs do decide to add a high powered forward through free agency I wouldn’t be surprised. I anticipate the Leafs ending up with around approximately $6.5 million in cap space following this season, and knowing Brian Burke it will be spent relatively wisely.
Look for Kessel to join the club in November, and slot in on the first line. By that point, the Leafs should have a solid idea of who their top centre is, and who they foresee as ideal line mates for Kessel. I’m looking forward to that day, and the rest of this season.
Burke has grabbed everything on his shopping list this off season, and he hasn’t had to do much to the prospects within the Leafs system. Let’s see where all the wheeling and dealing gets us shall we?
*Addendum*
Is Boston likely to land gold with our draft picks? Over the past few years here are their first and second round draft picks:
2009 - Jordan Caron RW (25th)
2008 - Joe Colborne C (16th)
2008 - Maxim Sauve C (47th)
2007 - Zach Hamill C (8th)
2007 - Tommy Cross D (35th)
2006 - Phil Kessel C (5th)
2006 - Yuri Alexandrov D (37th)
2006 - Milan Lucic LW (50th)
2005 - Matt Lashoff D (22nd)
2005 - Petr Kalus RW (39th)
2004 - David Krejci C (63rd)
2004 - Martins Karsums RW (64th)
2003 - Mark Stuart D (21st)
2003 - Patrice Bergeron C (45th)
2003 - Masi Marjamaki LW (66th)
Of that group, Kessel, Lucic, Krejci, Stuart, and Bergeron all look like pretty solid players, while Colborne, Hamill, and Caron look like decent prospects - so yes it’s quite possible that the Bruins will select good players with our draft picks. Should we worry about that? Not if Kessel turns into a perennial all-star, and becomes a top level scorer in the NHL. The Leafs will get draft picks again at some point, of that we are certain. It was a calculated risk, and I’m not particularly upset that Burke took it.
In regards to the “40% of his scoring came with Marc Savard” arguments I’ve been reading, consider the following. Marc Savard has played 10 full seasons in the NHL over the past 12 years. He has broken the 60 point barrier in 4 of those seasons - all of which were his past 4 years. In those 4 years he was playing with the following line mates:
2005-06: Ilya Kovalchuk, Marian Hossa
2006-07: Glenn Murray, Marco Sturm
2007-08: Glenn Murray, Marco Sturm
2008-09: Phil Kessel, Milan Lucic
Obviously playing with Kovalchuk and Hossa would help a lot in the 05-06 season. Murray and Sturm were no slouches, but neither one posted 30+ goals. Sturm had 27 goals in 2007-08 and Murray had 28 in 2006-07. In 2008-09 Kessel had 36 goals.
So - just to recap - it was actually 45% of Kessel’s production not 40%, and he actually spent 47% of his time with Savard and Lucic. Is it really that strange that 45% of his scoring came with line mates he was out with 47% of the time? Not at all. He doesn’t suck because Savard set him up… they just were both very productive. It could be argued that Savard’s production depended on Kessel’s ability to finish just as easily as one could argue Kessel needed Savard to set up his goals.
It’s a Chicken and the Egg argument… obviously circular and pointless until we see them without the other.
Posted in Announcements, Cap Analysis, Player Analysis, Prospects, Stat Analysis
12 Responses to “Phil Kessel A Leaf”
By LeafFan1989
on Sep 19, 2009
I’m glad you see this as a positive move as well Steve. A lot of the “experts” will be all over the leafs mortgaging their future but because of Kessel’s age he is the future and you mentioned some stats and facts that are not considered by many when debating the value of the deal. This is a good deal for Toronto and if Gustavvson can be the real deal by next year, look for us to make some real noise in 2010-2011.
By glgbill
on Sep 19, 2009
Happy to get Kessel, but not with the price. If he produces like you predict, this will be a great trade. But Chiarelli was the GM with the cap problem, not Burke…but you wouldn’t know it. Burke got played for tipping his hand (again) to the press. No knocks against Kessel, just against Burke for letting his mouth/ego drive up the price. Here’s hoping Phil can deliver, because those expectations are a heavy load in Toronto. I truly hope this works out for us.
By Marco
on Sep 19, 2009
21 year old 36 goal scorer…I don’t mind. Que the Savard to Toronto rumors in the summer
By Sami
on Sep 19, 2009
Interesting statistical breakdown. Thanks for the solid piece!
By bluebuds
on Sep 19, 2009
So nice to read something with intellect behind it. In your breakdown of Boston’s previous daft selections, I wonder what the odds of them really picking a decent player in both draft years were they are believed to be a weaker class. We may here of the names of whom they select, but I doubt we will see those names on the backs of a Burins jersey.
By Tom
on Sep 19, 2009
I’m glad you make some really great arguments Steve, I think I’m on board with the “calculated risk” idea considering what you highlighted (0.5 a game before 22, consistent improvement over only 3 seasons and 45% in 47%).
I do still have major reservations about it though. Last night when it broke I resolved to be frustrated for the night and then get behind this move. That being said here’s what I worried about:
- Two 1st round picks and a 2nd
Couldn’t we have gotten him for the 1st, 2nd and 3rd with the offer sheet? I don’t know if that’s what the exact compensation would have been but I prefer that to the actual deal. Plus if Chiarelli matches we’ve really hurt them.
-5.4 per
just about .6 to .9 over what I would have expected he might have realistically signed for.
-Health
I don’t know the chances of his form of cancer returning or his Doctor’s prognosis for the future. It appears a small risk from my understanding, but you now have two players who have or have had cancer. Don’t like bringing it up.
-Boston letting him go
If he is the kind top 10 goal scoring talent I hope you would net for that outlay why did Boston identify other players to keep instead? Kreji was signed, Bergeron and Ryder kept - why not make every effort to keep Kessel? Do they worry of plateauing or declining production, or is it a character issue in coaching/managements eye?
I don’t blame Burke for “going for it” this year, it’s pretty professional of him. Good luck to Kessel.
By Steve
on Sep 19, 2009
Ok Tom, I’ll answer each of those.
1 - For the amount he finally signed for ($5.4 million per season) the offer sheet compensation is actually two 1sts, a 2nd, and a 3rd… so overall we basically gave up what we would have through an offer sheet. (If he signed for between $5.2 mill and $6.5 mill)
2 - The deal he signed was probably considered fair value by Brian Burke. He doesn’t often throw out money he doesn’t think is worth the price of admission. Sure he’s landed Todd Bertuzzi by overpaying him before… but he’s also done a decent job of building a cup winner in Anaheim and a competitive team in Vancouver, and now Toronto. I have some faith in his ability to manage the cap to some extent.
The other reason an offer sheet didn’t happen is the Rangers and Predators would both have considered trades with Boston and tried to sign him if given the opportunity. The Leafs wanted to get it done quickly and without a messy situation with another club.
3 - Cancer is a sticky subject. Things to remember are that the testicular cancer was likely caught early because of all the testing pro-athletes undergo. The earlier you catch cancer, the likelier you are to prevent catching it again.
Think about the fact that Saku Koivu developed stomach cancer 2001-02 and hasn’t seen a recurrence since he originally dealt with it (8 years later knock on wood). Other pro athletes that have developed cancer and continued to have competitive careers include Lance Armstrong (testicular cancer followed by multiple Tour De France wins?), Mario Lemieux (was felled by back problems not his Hodgkins disease… he still looks pretty healthy frankly).
Obviously Kessel was productive last year following his fight with Cancer… and Blake has managed to play reasonably well while dealing with his form of Leukemia (although the two diseases are entirely different).
I assume because of his history, Kessel’s doctors will keep a very close eye on his body and check regularly for any relapse or spread of the cancer in order to again catch it quickly.
As for his shoulder surgery, he had a torn rotator cuff and labrum in his left shoulder. The surgery was deemed successful and if he rehabs it correctly it shouldn’t present long term issues for him.
He is under sized, so he may develop injuries more easily than one would like as a result of contact and physical play… but overall I still prefer to have him on our team than not.
4 - As for Boston letting him go, they didn’t WANT to let him go, they just had other players on the roster chewing up money they would have allocated to Kessel. Also they likely felt his salary demands were a bit exorbitant.
Chuck Kobasew wasn’t likely to be a preferred option over Kessel. Ryder and Bergeron were signed prior to this past off season, and it was unknown at the time how they would perform… or how Kessel would.
David Krejci’s contract is reflective of the fact that he has lower expectations originally than Kessel has had. Kessel is expected to become a top level producer in the NHL, and has been since his drafting. Krejci’s offensive out put was a bit more of a surprise.
I don’t think Kessel was seen as a problem in the Boston dressing room, but even if he was, they still wanted him on their team.
By mf37
on Sep 20, 2009
An interesting look at the trade, but I’m still on the fence. I certainly hope Kessel comes as advertised but I have my doubts.
There are plenty of players who scored 20 by the age of 20 only to fade/regress (e.g. Penner/Lupul/ Samsonov/Wolski).
Czerkawski scored 0.25gpg when he was 22, Daniel Marois scored 31 goals when he was 20. Would you deal two firsts and a second and dedicate 10% of the cap hit for either of their careers?
I also wonder/worry what the impact of the shoulder surgery will be on his shot, stickhandling and balance.
Fold these risks together and it’s an awfully big gamble for the leafs to take, especially given how thin this club is on prospects.
$5+M is a terrible cap hit if he turns out to be just another 25 goal man.
I sure hope I’m wrong on this one.
By Steve
on Sep 20, 2009
The stat I quoted was 0.5 goals per game prior to the age of 22. Not 20 goals in a season, and not 31 goals by a 20 year old.
The funny thing about Marois is he scored 39 goals at the age of 21 in only 68 games… and yes at the time he probably would have been worth those draft picks. Of course that was the season Gary Leeman scored 51 goals, and Vincent Damphousse had 94 points.
Marois shot 21.3% for the 1989-90 season when he scored 39 goals, and 21.2% in the 1988-89 season when he scored 31. Those are pretty unrealistic shooting percentages. Over his next two years he dropped down to 13.8% and then 10.7%, and he still ended up a career 16.4% shooter.
Kessel only shot 15.5% last season, and frankly that’s not an unrealistic number for him or most offensive players to hit. He shot 6.5% in his first year, and 8.9% in his second year. Even if he drops down to 12% this season, and fires 230 shots on goal, that’s still 28 goals. I don’t sincerely think his shooting percentage will drop to 12%… but that’s just me I suppose.
If you’re worried about him being a 25 goal man, you might want to hold on to your hat, because considering he’s likely to miss all of October and some of November, he might end up being just that this coming season… be prepared for it.
The issue is his scoring rate, not the absolute total. If he’s scoring a goal every 2 games… or 0.5 goals per game… then he’s pretty much earning his keep. If he misses around 20 games this year, due to injury and his recovery from surgery, that means he only needs to score 31 to meet that objective. It’s also quite possible he’ll end up under 30, but if that happens it’s not the end of the world.
By mf37
on Sep 20, 2009
Steve - thanks for the reply. Why do I get the feeling this is not a good time to be a skeptical Leafs fan?
I really hope I’m wrong, but the NHL is littered with guys who looked incredible one year, only to regress into 20 to 25 goal men (and I don’t mean in their first injury shortened year, har har).
Can you either post your spreadsheet or email it to me? I’d love to see the full set of comparables and how they all panned out. It would also be fascinating to see if any of them faced health challenges like Kessel and what it did to their game.
By glgbill
on Sep 20, 2009
@mf37 - It’s definitely not a good time to be a skeptical Leafs fan.
By Vito
on Sep 25, 2009
TAKE A CHANCE ON FORSBERG BURKY!!!!!
HOWS THIS FOR A NOVEMBER LINEUP???
FORSBERG KESSEL GRABOVSKI
BLAKE KADRI BOZAK
STEMPNIAK STAJAN HAGMAN
STALBERG HANSON PRIMEAU
KABERLE SCHENN
KOMISAREK BEAUCHEMIN
EXELBY VAN RYAN
TOSKALA
GUSTAVSSON