10 Things To Not Get Overly Excited About In Training Camp
September 18th, 2009 by Steve
I’m writing this prior to the Leafs vs. Penguins preseason game tonight and I’m just reminiscing to the games I’ve watched over the past two nights of the Leafs against the Bruins and Flyers. I saw some things I liked, some things I loved, and some things that appear superficially exciting. Here’s my take on some things fans are likely to go gaga over that they probably need to rein in a bit.
1. Jay Rosehill getting into 3 fights in 2 games - Rosehill is pretty much guaranteed to be playing for the Marlies. Yes Burke like’s fighting players, but these type of guys aren’t likely to make an NHL franchise. The truculence will be there come opening night, but honestly more of it will be coming from our blue line than our wingers.
2. Viktor Stålberg and Tyler Bozak scoring goals - Yes they’re the “future” of the team up front, but unless the Leafs deal a bunch of our experienced forward depth to Boston (which is horribly unlikely considering their cap space concerns), there just isn’t room up front for all these potential top 6 forwards.
If you think about the fact that Grabovski and Stajan are already slotted in as top 6 guys, and Ponikarovsky and Blake led the team in scoring last year, that leaves 2 other spots. Kulemin, Stempniak, Mitchell, Hagman, Wallin, Tlusty, Bozak, Stålberg, and Hanson are all in the mix for those spots. Even if Mitchell and Wallin are considered bottom six players, that leaves Hagman, Kulemin, Stempniak, and Tlusty competing with Hanson, Bozak and Stålberg. 7 guys competing for 2 spots, and 4 of them have a fair bit of NHL experience already. I’m not saying they won’t make the team (hell I really want them to make the team) I just don’t see how it makes sense from a waivers, numbers, and cap perspective right now.
3. Jonas Gustavsson’s surgery - Minor operation, he’ll be fine.
4. Vesa Toskala handling the puck - TSN felt like making a big deal about the fact that Vesa Toskala could move the puck out from behind his net. He also failed to prevent the Bruins from scoring a relatively soft goal on the power play, which was stoppable. I’m not suggesting he was horrible, but his puck handling isn’t what got him to the point of being an NHL starter. Stopping the puck did that, and he needs to do more of it.
5. James Reimer and Joey MacDonald making big saves - Yes they pitched a shutout, but they’ll still be playing in the AHL if Toskala and Gustavsson are both healthy and playing reasonably well. Despite that fact, I was pleasantly surprised by the compete level of both goaltenders, and felt they did a more than adequate job with Philadelphia’s solid shooters.
6. Nazem Kadri’s first NHL goal - This is fairly similar to the second point I made, but Kadri’s goal really doesn’t accelerate his maturation process. He’s a skilled player already, but he’s still undersized, and he gets knocked off the puck fairly easily against NHL competition. The funny thing is, he isn’t facing NHL competition - he’s facing a mix of AHL and NHL competition at this point. I worry a bit about his defense at this stage of the game, but another year of seasoning in Junior and some sheltering by playing him alongside the likes of Hagman and Stempniak can’t hurt him.
7. Lee Stempniak coming out of hiding - Yes that’s right, Stempniak scored against Philly last night. He’s skating well, and he seemed to do a decent job on the forecheck alongside Hagman and Kadri. That being said, scoring 1 goal in pre-season doesn’t mean he’s about to score 30 in the regular season. He has the physical tools to do so, and he’s being looked upon as a potential stop-gap in the scoring department at this point. He needs to keep stepping it up in a big way if he wants to maintain a major role on this club… he hasn’t proven anything just yet.
8. Mikhail Grabovski getting his bell rung - Grabovski got seriously smashed in an open ice collision in last night’s game with Philly, but he obviously was none the worse for wear as he scored a goal later in the game and looked pretty solid up front. I expect big things from the small Belarusian Dynamo, but consistency is the key to his season - and he won’t prove he’s consistent until a month or two have passed this season.
9. Beating the Flyers in the Preseason, and almost beating the Bruins - We have played a couple of half NHL outfits, that were missing a number of key components. Both clubs have been resting their starting goalies against the Leafs, and both clubs were without some of their top level Defenders (Chara and Pronger). Yes the Leafs beat both Boston and Philly in the punch up side of things, but that won’t mean a whole lot in 3 months if we’re sliding in the standings and those two teams are competing for the top of the Eastern Conference.
10. The score lines of the next two games - The Leafs will be playing 4 games in 4 nights, and frankly that means a lot of players will be tired and a lot of players will be slightly banged up. This is a heavier schedule than teams face in the playoffs. Admittedly with over 60 guys in camp, it won’t be quite so bad as you can rotate in players, but they’re bound to play a stinker before the pre-season ends. Don’t be shocked when they do.
Posted in Game Analysis, Player Analysis, Prospects
10 Responses to “10 Things To Not Get Overly Excited About In Training Camp”
By neil
on Sep 18, 2009
Geez, I’m trying to find something to rag you on, but I got nothing.
Good piece, good sense
By Leafer1984
on Sep 18, 2009
Steve, great article. However, Toskala only allowed one goal. Joey Mac allowed the other two
By hockeycentric.com
on Sep 18, 2009
Great points Steve.
By Steve
on Sep 18, 2009
You got me on the Toskala goals against… fixed.
By LeafFan1989
on Sep 18, 2009
Here’s something to get excited about, Kessel to the leafs is in the final stages per TSN.
By Sami
on Sep 18, 2009
I don’t think that Hagman is in the running for a top six position. He is a great third line player for us (as he was in Dallas), and I don’t think he should be expected to do anything more than that. Like Fisher in Ottawa, Hagman might be asked to ocassionally play in the top six, but he really shouldn’t… If one of the youngsters proves capable I think that Burke/Wilson would love to put Hagman into his natural position.
I wouldn’t rule Stalberg out from third-line duty either given his strong fore-checking ability and physical play.
I’m a bit concerned that Tlusty hasn’t really stood out in the pre-season so far.
By hockeycentric.com
on Sep 18, 2009
I’m sorry but if you can get 25+ goals then you can play as a top-6 forward.
The term top-6 forward itself is difficult to define, because you look at teams like Calgary, where Curtis Glencross, Rene Bourque, and David Moss are considered top-6 forwards.
Contrast that with the Red Wings, who called Valtteri Filppula and Jiri Hudler bottom-6 forwards last season, when they could have fit on the top two lines of various clubs around the league.
By Sami
on Sep 19, 2009
I’m sorry, but scoring 25+ goals once in your career does not make you a top-six player.
I take the traditional approach of breaking a team down into two scoring lines, a checking line and a fourth line of either energy or developing players. Hagman most definitely fits the mould of the checking line winger. He would also be useful as a mentor on a fourth line of developing players, as he was the year he scored 27 goals (but only 41 points) playing on a line with then newbies Eriksson and Neal.
When you hit the age of 30 and have never scored even 50 points, you are clearly not a top six player.
When it comes down to it, Hagman’s strengths are his speed, his puck protection and his effort level. Don’t get me wrong, I think that he is a very talented player and I have thoroughly enjoyed watching him play as a Leaf. The fact that he’s not a top-six talent is not a knock against him, just acknowledgement of his skill set.
re: Glencross and Moss, interesting point. It’s true that they occasionally played on scoring lines. My only response would be that the fact that somebody is forced to play in the top-six because of a lack of depth does not make them a top-six player, as I alluded to when I mentioned Fisher in Ottawa. Anyway, Glencross and Moss mostly played on the third line with Conroy at centre (the most common line combination for the Flames last season).
Looks like there will be one less top-six spot available once Kessel is fit again…
By Steve
on Sep 19, 2009
I would say Hagman is a 2nd line forward as the Leafs are currently constituted.
Following the logic I used in some postings about Ponikarovsky over recent months, there are 30 teams in the NHL and theoretically that would logically mean there are 180 “top 6″ players in the NHL. Admittedly those 180 players may not be evenly distributed around the league, and some teams may have an overabundance while others are lacking.
Using that logic, the top 180 players in the NHL all had 35 or more points. Breaking 50 obviously isn’t a requirement to be a top 6 NHL forward - since being in the top 180 players theoretically should qualify you from an offensive perspective.
In fact, the player who finish 180th in offensive production as a forward last season in the NHL was Tyler Kennedy of the Penguins. The players in his immediate vicinity include Joel Ward, Peter Mueller, Radek Dvorak, Jakub Voracek and James Neal. I doubt anyone would drop those guys out of the top 6 on most teams in the NHL. Some of them might be borderline… but they’d make the cut.
None of them had 40 points last season. Yet we’re saying Hagman can’t be considered in the top 6 when he scored 42 points in 65 games? He was on pace to score 53 points last year, and that would thus refute your whole “hit the age of 30 and not breaking 50 points” argument… which I think is a bit biased anyway.
For the sake of fairness, mainly around games played arguments, I think a top 6 forward in the NHL is reasonably defined as a player who produced over 0.45 points per game last year and skated in over 60 games. That list gives you 173 skaters, which comes pretty damn close to my 180 estimation.
Even if you dispute the logic of THAT assertion, Hagman is pretty firmly ensconced on that list at 97th overall in points, while he ranked 88th overall in goals. His neighbours include Chuck Kobasew, Matt Cullen, Patrick Sharp, James Neal, Ryan Malone, Brian Gionta and Nathan Horton… are we SINCERELY going to argue that his production last year doesn’t quantify him as a top 6 forward in the NHL?
I can continue this argument for a while, but I really don’t think it’s fair to Hagman to base it purely on last season - since as you asserted he only did it “once”.
So let’s review previous years using the same reasoning:
2007-08 - 162 players - Hagman ranks 91st with 41 points, and 47th with 27 goals.
2006-07 - 164 players - Hagman doesn’t make the cut.
Prior to that season his numbers were unspectacular frankly.
So Hagman has gone from being a bottom 6 player to a top 6 player in my opinion, and there’s a statistical basis for it over the past two seasons.
By Sami
on Sep 19, 2009
Hm, that’s an interesting take, Steve.
I have to admit that at least 170 of the guys on last year’s top 180 list seem to fit the bill so your breakdown might be a good indicator (I’m far too lazy to look into prior years). Thanks for the insight.
I still think that you have to take into consideration (as you mentioned in your post) the fact that not all teams get their fair share of talent and, consequently, might have to rely on some players too heavily. Personally, I think that Hagman is one of those players and that’s why he posted a career best points per game - that and he’s around the average NHLers prime in terms of age. I would like to see the Leafs give a younger player (with an upside higher than 53 points after 7 years of experience) that chance to play on a scoring line, but to each their own.
Whether he’s on a scoring or checking line this year, I can’t wait to see Hagman and the buds back in action!