Toronto Maple Leafs

But Can They Score?

So the Leafs have lost some of their offensive punch, which is scary for a few reasons, not the least of which is they lacked offensive punch last season. Or - they were supposed to.

I know, I know, they finished 10th in the NHL in scoring last year, and they out performed most people’s expectations. Hell, before last season I thought I was being kind in estimating that they’d score around 220 goals. I felt the impact of losing Sundin was over stated by the press because the Leafs retained the skills of the likes of Kaberle and Kubina on the back end, feeding up to experienced forwards Antropov, Ponikarovsky, Blake, Steen, Bell, etc. What’s that? Steen and Bell were removed from the equation? Well yeah, I know that, but at the time I was writing predictions none of us did.

Then the team went out and scored 244 goals. I was surprised… I think everyone was. I sincerely doubt anyone on the face of the planet not only expected the Leafs offense to survive post Sundin, but actually increase their output by 16 goals for over the previous season. Also, if you told someone that they would lose 32 goals from Sundin, 13 goals from Alex Steen, 18 goals from Darcy Tucker, 5 goals from Bryan McCabe, 10 goals from Chad Kilger, 10 goals from Jiri Tlusty… well then you might wonder where the hell the offense was going to come from. That was 88 of the 228 goals the Leafs scored in 2007-2008, or almost 40% of their total offensive output.

I suppose few of us expected (I mentioned it though) the total of Blake to go up by 10, or Ponikarovsky to score an extra 5 goals. Oh sure we knew they were capable, but most of us didn’t expect it. Stajan’s production actually went down by 1 goal, so he wasn’t the cause. Antropov produced 5 fewer goals, so he wasn’t key to the increase either. Hagman had 22, Grabovski had 20, Kulemin had 15, Stempniak had 11, Mitchell had 12, White scored an extra 5 markers, Moore scored 8 more than the previous year, Mayers added 7, Williams added 5, and bam… that’s 114 goals to replace 88. So there it is, you know who made up for most of the losses.

Which brings me to this coming season.

Question in two parts: how many goals have the Leafs lost from last season outright, and who is potentially going to replace that scoring?

Answer 1) If you only add together the players that are no longer with the team the Leafs have lost the following:

Antropov - 21 goals
Moore - 12 goals
Kubina - 14 goals
Devereaux - 6 goals
Williams - 5 goals
Hamilton - 3 goals
Steen - 2 goals
Stapleton - 1 goal
Stralman - 1 goal

That adds up to 64 goals, or 26% of the Leafs total from last season. Less of an issue than the previous season to be sure, but at the same time the Leafs have a different issue entirely. You see, last year when the Leafs cut all those offensive producers loose, they brought in replacements. Hagman, Grabovski, Stempniak, Kulemin, Mitchell, Mayers, and Williams all added to the mix.

Answer 2) This year, Hagman, Grabovski, Stempniak, Kulemin, Mitchell, and Mayers are all still present, and yes some of them might improve upon their totals. The problem is, if you explore the changes from the 07-08 season to the 08-09 season for the incumbent players, the actual goal differential is +10 for Blake, +5 for Ponikarovsky, +8 for Moore, +5 for White, -1 for Stajan, and -5 for Antropov. That’s a net increase of only 22 goals, and half of those players are AGAIN incumbent players.

Do we expect them to duplicate those increases? I actually doubt that White will hit 10 goals again, as he scored a bunch of those goals whilst playing as a forward. Blake and Ponikarovsky can likely replicate their production, but increasing it might take a bit of effort. Moore is gone now, and Stajan has never broken the 16 goal plateau in his career. So in the end, NO, I don’t think it’s likely for those players to replicate those increases.

So who on last year’s team might increase their production realistically. Well the obvious candidates are Kulemin, Grabovski, Stempniak, Hagman, and Mitchell. If each of those players can add 5 goals to their total from last season, that will account for 25 of the lost goals.  I’m guessing at least two of them won’t add 5 goals though, so let’s just call it 15 of the lost goals to be safe.

So where do the rest of the goals come from? Rickard Wallin, Jiri Tlusty, Tyler Bozak, Viktor Stålberg, Christian Hanson, and perhaps Mikhail Stefanovich, or Robert Slaney. If Wallin, Tlusty and Bozak can add 10 each, and Stålberg can hit 5 to 10, that gives the team another 35 markers. If Hanson, Stefanovich, and Slaney can combine to score 5 to 10 more goals then this group of kids is adding between 40 and 45 markers.

So between the kids, and extra production from the incumbents, we’ve got a total of 55 to 60 goals. Considering the Leafs lost 64, that frankly isn’t that disappointing.  Obviously for this to work out, a lot of things have to go right, and I know the season won’t pan out how I’m expecting it to… it never does.

But at least this gives us all an idea of where the offense should be coming from next season. There will be highs and lows. At least 2 or 3 of the players mentioned will underperform, and end up being the dogs of the season. The guys we bash and malign, hoping to run them out of town. Two years ago it was Blake and Tucker. Last year it was Steen and then his replacement Stempniak. This year I’m putting odds on one of them being Stempniak, but as Blake proved last season, players CAN turn it around if they have the ability. Stempniak might not score 27 goals again, but if he can approach 20, then he’s helping out the cause.

It’s far easier to quantify offensive output than defensive, and there’s a few reasons this might not work out, but in the end, all we want is an idea of how things are supposed to look. Hopefully we’re getting a clearer picture as the season approaches.