Toronto Maple Leafs

Leafs Get Tougher - Goal Scoring Will Drop

Ok, so day one of free agent insanity is done, and the Leafs beefed up a bit.  The first signing they made was of ex-NY Rangers tough guy Colton Orr.  The team’s first legit heavyweight since the departure of Wade Belak, Orr is one of the better fights in the league, but he isn’t a very good skater, and he won’t do much else for the team on the ice.  He averaged 6:29 in ice time a game for the Rangers last year, but led the team in penalty minutes with 193.  He played in all 82 games, so he’s durable to boot, but if you average out the PIMs that means he spent 2:21 in the box per game… or in the showers… whichever.

Then came the Leafs first action on the trade front this off season, as they dealt $5 million dollar a season, top goal scoring defense man Pavel Kubina and the rights to Tim Stapleton to the Atlanta Thrashers for Garnet Exelby and Colin Stuart.  Exelby was an upgrade to the heft of the blue line, giving the Leafs another heavyweight, who throws the body effectively.  He’s a bit of a cheap shot artist who lets his elbows fly, and he often takes himself out of position with his hits, but he’ll make sure the other side has it’s head up.  Stuart has played most of his pro career in the minors for the Chicago Wolves, and while he adds size to the mix at 6′3″ and 205 lbs, he’ll probably spend a lot of time on the Marlies this season.

The biggest news for the Leafs of the day soon followed when they signed Mike Komisarek for 5 years, at $4.5 million per season, including a limited NMC in the deal that lets Komisarek select 12 teams per year that he’s willing to be dealt to.  Komisarek has been one of the league leaders in hits the past few years, and he is a talented defensive defenseman, but last year was his worst in the NHL statistically, and he only played in 66 games following shoulder issues as a result of a fight during last season.

Hopefully Komisarek recovers completely from the injury, and he patrols the Leafs blue line for most of next season, again reinforcing the new rule of vigilante justice on the Leafs back end.  I’m not a huge fan of the signing as I feel $4.5 million per season over-estimates his worth to the team, and I don’t think he adds enough across the board to merit that kind of contract.  He’s making the most money of any defender on the team now, so he’d better step up to the plate in terms of his all around game.

So beyond that the Leafs didn’t do much.  They were in the mix on Chris Neil, who walked back to Ottawa, and they had a chance at Camalleri, but he signed with Montreal.  I’m actually glad neither of those two signed with the Leafs though so I’m not fretting over that.  The biggest loss of the day came before it even began, as Burke flew all the way to Sweden to make a pitch to his favourite twins, the Sedins.  Unfortunately by the time he arrived, they had already agreed to return to Vancouver before the bidding for their services could even begin.

So where does that leave the Leafs offense at this point?

Well considering the fact that the club scored 293 goals last season to finish 10th overall in the league, a significant drop might be in store for the buds.

Last year here was the goal output of every forward for the Leafs:

Jason Blake - 25

Alexei Ponikarovsky - 23

Niklas Hagman - 22

Nik Antropov - 21

Mikhail Grabovski - 20

Matt Stajan - 15

Nikolai Kulemin - 15

Lee Stempniak - 14

Dominic Moore - 12

John Mitchell - 12

Jamal Mayers - 7

Boyd Devereaux - 6

Jeremy Williams - 5

Jeff Hamilton - 3

Brad May - 1

Christian Hanson - 1

Tim Stapleton - 1

Right now, from that group, Antropov, Grabovski, Moore, Devereaux, Williams, Hamilton, May, and Stapleton are not coming back.  That means 69 goals are gone from the forward ranks.  Additionally, Pavel Kubina scored 14 goals from the blue line last season… that means 73 goals are gone from the Leafs.

Last season Colton Orr had 1 goal, Mike Komisarek had 2 goals, Garnet Exelby scored 0 goals, and Colin Stuart scored 5 goals.  That means the Leafs have brought in 8 goals, to replace 73.

That means the Leafs - based on last season’s production - would score 228 goals.  That would rank them 18th, tied with the Edmonton Oilers.  Not horrible, but not that great either.  It’s also debatable whether or not Kulemin, Ponikarovsky, Blake, or Stajan would come remotely close to their output from last season without playing with Antropov and Moore, who both were fairly important players offensively for the Leafs last season.

This is in fact the first season I can remember in almost 20 years that the Leafs have not had a significant offensive threat up front.  Leaf fans might be willing to accept pugilism in place of talent, I can understand that argument, but even at the worst of times, there was offensive talent to deflect some of the criticism.  Even if it was Gary Leeman, Daniel Marois, Ed Olzcyk, and Vincent Damphousse… there was some top flight talent in the system to produce points.  Even when the Leafs were at their worst in the 80’s, they had Rick Vaive scoring 50 goals.

I also don’t think the arguments about the Anaheim Ducks competing without scoring make any sense because they’ve had legit top 6 forwards on their team… be it Teemu Selanne, or Andy McDonald, or more recently Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry, Bobby Ryan, and Andrew Ebbet.  These Leafs are a far cry from that level of production.

So who picks up the slack?  Coming into this next season, Jiri Tlusty, Viktor Stålberg, Tyler Bozak, and Christian Hanson are being touted as potential producers entering from other levels (AHL and NCAA respectively).  Nikolai Kulemin should improve his totals now that he’s had a season to adjust hopefully into the 20 goal range.  Stempniak has scored 27 goals in the NHL previously.  Ponikarovsky, Hagman, and Blake should be able to break the 20 goal plateau.

Using these estimates, let’s make some projections for what the Leafs forwards are likely to produce this upcoming season, as they are currently constituted.

L1: Ponikarovsky, Tlusty, Kulemin

L2: Blake, Stajan, Stempniak

L3: Hagman, Bozak/Hanson, Stålberg

L4: Orr, Mitchell, Mayers

Line 1 will hopefully reprise some of the late season efforts we witness with Grabovski in the centreman’s role.  Grabovski was never too stellar in the face off dot, so replacing him with Tlusty isn’t a huge loss on that front.  Defensively, Ponikarovsky and Kulemin are decent so Tlusty’s learning curve can be compensated for to some extent.  Offensively though, I would project all 3 forwards producing about 20 goals if they’re given PP time in addition to regular rotations 5-on-5.  That’s 60 goals.

Line 2 should be able to at least produce at the level they seemed to last season. That means Blake should at least hit 20 goals, Stajan and Stempniak should both hover around 15-20 over the course of the full year.  That means combined, we should expect them to provide about 55 goals from the three of them.

Line 3 is a bit of a risk as 2/3rds of it would be NHL rookies.  Bozak and Stålberg were two of the top players in the NCAA last season though, and both were considered the offensive leaders on their respective clubs.  Hagman adds a bit of veteran leadership and his work ethic would hopefully rub off on the youngsters.  He’s basically reprising the same role he developed last season in playing with rookies Grabovski and Kulemin.  Hagman should be able to score 25 goals if he can repeat his efforts from last year, barring recurring concussion problems.  He looked good at the World Championships for Finland so that shouldn’t be a huge concern.

Bozak is recovering from a knee injury suffered early last season while playing for the University of Denver, but he made it back for the end of the Frozen Four tournament, though he likely wasn’t playing at 100%.  With a full offseason training regimen behind him, he should hopefully be ready for training camp and raring to go into next season.

Stålberg finished off last season on a wicked tear with Vermont, taking them all the way to the Frozen Four, and leading the team in scoring along the way.  He made the final 10 for the Hobey Baker award, and that was a well deserved reward for his play last season.  Of the three NCAA players to join the Leafs this past season, he seemed to fly the lowest under the radar as far as the local main stream media are concerned, and in fact never seems to be mentioned by Cox, or Berger, et al.  This is probably a good thing for him as he produced the most points offensively of the three in the NCAA last year, and he looks to be the most likely to produce offensively at this point in the NHL.

Based on my earlier posting, I’m going to pencil in Bozak/Hanson in for 15 goals, and Stålberg in for 20.  Along with Hagman’s 25 or so, that works out to 60 goals for line 3.

The 4th line for the Leafs at this point is purely there to send a defensive message.  Mayers and Orr will be there to mix it up with regularity, while Mitchell gets some key ice time killing penalties alongside Mayers.  Mayers will also be a key faceoff man for the team, as he had one of the best face off percentages for them last season.

Last year Mayers had 7 goals, Mitchell had 12, and Orr had 1.  If they combine for 20 goals I’m happy.

Overall that means the Leafs forwards should be able to produce about 195 goals.  Last season they produced 202.  If they only drop off by 7, and Anton Stralman can pick up some of the offensive slack on the blue line that was lost in Kubina, then the Leafs might not be in for as rough a season as I think they will.

Dropping from 293 goals to 275 or 280 wouldn’t be the end of the world.  They still lack a number 1 centre, but as many people have been trying to tell me, they did last season too and it didn’t make a huge difference.

Here’s hoping… and no I haven’t forgotten that Free Agency is still going and lots of talent is left on the table.  The Leafs may yet bring in some offensive talent.  Since Burke says he plans on spending to the cap, and there’s still about $6 or $7 million to go, we’ll see how close he actually gets.