Toronto Maple Leafs

Why Chris Pronger Is Driving Up The Value Of Tomas Kaberle

So two days ago, in the first round of the 2009 NHL entry draft, the Philadelphia Flyers traded Joffrey Lupul, Luca Sbisa, and two first round draft picks (2009, 2010) AND a conditional 3rd round pick in 2010 or 2011 to the Anaheim Ducks for Chris Pronger and prospect Ryan Dingle.  The conditional pick is dependent upon whether or not Pronger resigns with the Flyers.

Dingle was undrafted, and played 4 years in the USHL with Des Moines and Tri City before moving on to play another 3 years with the University of Denver in the WCHA conference of the NCAA. Dingle was signed as a free agent by the Ducks in 2006-07. He played a few games with the Portland Pirates in the AHL after leaving Denver in the midst of the 2006-07 season, and eventually dropped down to the ECHL to play with the Augusta Lynx.  This past season he spent the entire season playing for the Iowa Chops in the AHL.  He’s 5′10″ and 190 lbs, and he scored 11 goals and 18 points in 70 games.  Suffice it to say, he’s unlikely to make a huge impact in the NHL.

Which basically leaves us with Chris Pronger for WAY TOO MUCH. Lupul is a former 7th overall draft pick of the Ducks, who has played 372 NHL games, in 5 full NHL seasons.  He has scored 20 or more goals in 3 of those seasons already, and he isn’t even 26 yet - oh and this is the second time he’s been traded for Chris Pronger, which I’d imagine is flattering and frustrating at the same time.

Luca Sbisa was the 19th overall draft pick in the 2008 entry draft and he played 39 games with the Flyers as an 18 year old.  He was probably rushed a tad, and was eventually sent back to the Lethbridge Hurricanes of the WHL for the remainder of the season.  Add on the two other first rounders, and that’s FOUR first round draft picks for Chris Pronger.

Chris Pronger is a great D man.  He’s probably one of the top 5 in the NHL, but he’s definitely a notch below Lidstrom and Chara these days.  He’s won a Stanley Cup - albiet alongside Scott Niedermayer and the rest of the Ducks who weren’t exactly chopped liver - and he’s won a Norris and Hart trophy during his career (though frankly he won the Norris and Hart trophies in the same 1999-2000 season, and he’s never won either award again.  He led the NHL in +/- rating back in 1998-99 and 1999-2000… but that was 10 years ago.

He hasn’t been considered one of the League’s top 4 D men since 2006-07, and he’s not likely to be considered one of them again in the immediate future as he continues to age.  According to reports out of Philly he has already suggested he would like to sign an extension worth over $6 million a season… for 4+ years.

If this is not an example of overpayment, I don’t know what is.  Yes Pronger is a great defender, and a solid producer offensively, and he might very well make Philly the team to beat in the East, but 4 first round picks is a HUGE price to pay.  I have a very hard time believing that there were any offers even CLOSE to this one from the Flyers.  Anaheim could never have said no to it if it was out there either way.

So why does this impact on the Tomas Kaberle situation?  Well apparently at the draft there was a deal discussed between the Boston Bruins and the Leafs where Tomas Kaberle would be exchanged for Phil Kessel and there would be a first round pick going from one team to another.  The confusion in the deal arose from the fact that Toronto felt they were getting Boston’s first round pick, while Boston thought they were getting Toronto’s 7th overall selection.  If Peter Chiarelli honestly thought Brian Burke was insane enough to trade Tomas Kaberle (who costs only $4.25 million a year) AND the 7th overall pick in this year’s draft for an unsigned Restricted Free Agent in Kessel - then he’s crazy.

Either way, Burke didn’t finalize the deal for Kaberle and it might be the best thing he never did.  Kaberle for Kessel and a first rounder seems pretty cheap at this point as far as Kaberle goes.  Considering the uncertainty going forward with the Salary Cap, a player like Kaberle is actually even more valuable than his statistical lines would suggest.  Which isn’t to say his stats are less than stellar, it just means that considering he only costs a team $4.25 million a year against the cap for the next 2 seasons, he’s a huge steal.

Kaberle has been an All-Star for the past 3 consecutive seasons, and has been named to the All-Star team 4 times in his career.  His point totals have actually been shrinking steadily since the lockout but a lot of that likely has to do with the decline of the Leafs more than his skill set vanishing.  He’ll be turning 31 this year, and should still be well within the range of prime production years as a player.  He has produced over .50 points per game in 7 years of his 10 year NHL career, and in 2 others he produced over 0.44 points per game. Even as a rookie he produced 0.39 points per game.  Only 78 blue liners in the entire NHL produced over .39 points per game last season.  Only 37 of them produced over 0.5 points per game last season, and Kaberle produced 0.54 - his career average is 0.59 points per game.

Of the 37 D men that produced over 0.5 points per game the only blue liners making less than Kaberle are the following:

Niklas Kronwall, DET ($3 million per year)

Dennis Wideman, BOS ($3.9375 million per year)

Tom Gilbert, EDM ($4 million per year)

Ryan Suter, NAS ($3.5 million per year)

Jaroslav Spacek, BUF ($3.33 million per year - UFA)

Duncan Keith, CHI ($1.475 million per year)

Kevin Bieksa, VAN ($3.75 million per year)

Christian Ehrhoff, SJS ($3.1 million per year)

Marek Zidlicky, MIN ($3.35 million per year)

Filip Kuba, OTT ($3.7 million per year)

Cam Barker, CHI ($2.768 million per year - RFA)

Dennis Grebeshkov, EDM ($1.0 million per year - RFA)

Kyle Quincey, LAK ($525,000 per year)

JM Liles, COL ($4.2 million per year)

Matt Hunwick, BOS ($750,000 per year - RFA)

Cory Murphy, TBL ($412,500 per year - UFA)

James Wisniewski, ANA ($900,000 per year - RFA)

Of those 17 players, only Niklas Kronwall, Dennis Wideman, Kevin Bieksa, Marek Zidlicky, JM Liles, and Cam Barker have ever averaged over 0.59 points per game in a single season - which is Tomas Kaberle’s CAREER average over 10 seasons. Kaberle’s top season saw him average 0.82 points per game; higher than any player on that list by almost 0.2 points per game.

Hopefully I’m making a decent case here that Kaberle’s offensive production is easily worth the $4.25 million he’s pulling down.  Obviously his game is not as complete as Pronger’s, but he’s worth a lot more than he would be as one piece of a deal to obtain the un-signed RFA Phil Kessel.

At this point, I’d argue Kaberle is worth at least one solid roster player under the age of 27, and a first round pick. That’s still a lot less than Pronger got, and frankly I’m not sure Pronger is worth what the Ducks recieved for him.  The market has been set with the deals for Pronger and Bouwmeester, and I would be shocked if nobody steps up to get ahold of Kaberle while he’s available.