Spreading Rumour(s)
June 16th, 2009 by Steve
Ok - so this one caught my eye and I’m going to pass it along. It’s completely unsourced, and it doesn’t entirely make sense from a value perspective, so I’m going to take it with a grain of salt, but consider it anyway:
Ian White and Lee Stempniak go from the Leafs to the Devils in exchange for David Clarkson and a 4th round pick in this year’s draft.
New Jersey is looking to compensate for the potential loss of Niclas Havelid and Johnny Oduya on the blue line, as both players are Unrestricted Free Agents. Havelid and Oduya were their number 2 and 3 defensemen from a minutes perspective last season, each playing around 20 minutes a game. Bringing in a player like White, who is good logging heavy minutes, a decent passer, and plays reasonably well positionally would work well in the Devils system.
Stempniak would also fit the Devils mold of a winger that can skate and hit, without doing too much of anything flashy. He might slot in nicely for them considering they currently have to worry about the loss of UFAs Brendan Shanahan, Brian Gionta, John Madden, Mike Rupp, and the retirement of Bobby Holik. I would anticipate that the Devils will try to re-sign Gionta to a reasonable deal, but he was making $4 million a year on his last contract, so who knows if they think they can afford it. They will probably put in a minimum offer on Rupp, who only made $500,000 last season.
Madden is probably the hardest decision of the three as he is 36 years old and is coming off his worst production since 2001-02, 8 years ago. Stempniak’s contract is manageable at $2.5 million a year, which is about $400,000 less than Madden made last season. It also expires following this season if he doesn’t produce reasonably well.
Which brings me to the idea of obtaining Clarkson and a 4th rounder in exchange. I don’t honestly think this is a fair value trade for the Leafs. Clarkson is a young up and coming pugilist who has some offensive upside. He makes $837,500 next season, and after that is a RFA. Last season he scored 17 goals and added 15 assists for 32 points, while posting a -1 rating and seeking out 164 PIMs to lead the Devils. That would also have given him the lead in Toronto by about 70 minutes.
Clarkson I have no problem with, I just don’t know if I feel a 4th rounder is enough for the Leafs to give up both White AND Stempniak. This is coming back towards Colaiacovo and Steen for Stempniak territory… and would continue the deal to morph it into Colaiacovo, Steen, and White, for Clarkson and a 4th round draft pick… really? That’s a hell of a lot to give up just for David Clarkson and a 4th rounder.
Stempniak is a 45 point player, who is only 26 years old. White is a young defender coming into his own at 25 years old. I just think if the Leafs are trying to get younger, that trading away 25 and 26 year olds that are reasonably productive for a 30 point tough guy and a 4th rounder is a bit excessive.
If we could exchange Stempniak for Blake in the trade, then at least the Leafs are obtaining some Cap relief, and getting younger in the process. In my opinion White is the real key to the trade from New Jersey’s perspective, not Stempniak. Blake can fill that role just as easily as Stempniak can, but he admittedly costs a few more dollars. The thing is, White is so cheap that it really doesn’t hurt the Devils that much.
Either way, I think it’s an interesting discussion point, so have at it.
Posted in Player Analysis, Stat Analysis
17 Responses to “Spreading Rumour(s)”
By Woikin
on Jun 16, 2009
Stempniak…. any takers for this guy, go for it. There was nothing special about this kid, and I dont see any up side to him. Hits…tries to, then bounces off guys. I would love nothing more than to see him gone to open up a roster spot.
If the leafs want to hit the ufa market and bring in young new faces they will have to move some two for ones instead of salary dumps to the mionors.
It really does looke like the cap isnt the issue, but bodies are, even on defence. hopefully burke will dangle a few souls so we can move forward.
By glgbill
on Jun 16, 2009
Interesting scenario. Stempniak has more value, I believe, than most people feel today, and NJ’s system might help him better realize his abilities. The trade also frees up roster space, which is needed to open slots for guys like Bozak, Tlusty, et al, that we hope can make the jump. I’m certain NJ realizes this and would negotiate (partly) with that in mind. Value-wise, I’d like to see another mid-round pick coming back, even in 2010, but with that added, I’d be okay with this deal.
Blake, with his unfortunate contract, is wishful thinking, imo. He’s the guy that I’d dump for pucks — not to slam Blake, but his best years are done and he won’t being skating long enough to be part of any Leaf future. Even Stempniak has a chance at being around for that. Blake isn’t a leader in the room either, so there’s no ‘veteran presence’ argument in his favor.
Clarkson fits on a Brian Burke team. My vote…get the added pick and do the deal.
By Tom
on Jun 16, 2009
I would be for this kind od deal as well. I know White should have more value than we are getting back, but Lee doesn’t fit with this team, and I would jump at any opportunity to get out of his contract. Clarkson would fit, replace Brad May and we get another pick. Besides, White isn’t really as good as most think and he probably won’t be resigned next year. Maybe it opens up a spot for Stralman?
By koopa kid
on Jun 16, 2009
Can’t imagine why this deal would go through, Burke admitted to turning down a 2nd rounder for White, now all of a sudden White AND Stempniak are only worth a 4th and a forward with likely less upside than Lee? Ridiculous.
By Steve
on Jun 16, 2009
Yeah I don’t think it makes sense from a value perspective as I said in the original posting. I just think the idea of 2 for 1 + picks deals from the Leafs make some sense, and it wouldn’t shock me if Burke was looking at Clarkson.
Just hoping to engender discussion either way.
By Mike
on Jun 16, 2009
well Clarkson certainly fits the style Burke is looking for. On paper this is not a deal I would make, but is it a deal that is done in the salary cap era. Is it one move that triggers the next.A move that gives 2million in salary cap relief. Then another move follows that we win on paper but take on the other teams salary dump. Ultimately leaving the Leafs as a better team.
By Cat Smasher
on Jun 17, 2009
Clarkson would be amazing. Madden is going to be a Free Agent, he said so himself.
By Carm
on Jun 17, 2009
Are we underrating Clarkson? The reality is that there are not many guys in the league who can score more than a bit and scrap. It’s just such a rare combination.
To me, Clarkson is a poor man’s Milan Lucic. He is talented enough to play amongst your top 6 forwards but is probably better suited for the 3rd line. Plus, he’s a local boy (i.e former Markham Islander) and would quickly become a favourite of the fans and Burke.
Now, losing White does not appeal to me but to get a guy like Clarkson and to dump Stempniak, I just might do it. As others have noted, maybe dumping Stempniak allows Burke to take on another bad contract from another team who compensates him for doing that with a draft pick or prospect
By Steve
on Jun 17, 2009
I don’t actually have a huge problem with trading White for Clarkson… but the problem we have is having too many forwards at this point. I think White for Clarkson is reasonable value.
I think Clarkson is slightly more useful to the Leafs at this point than Stempniak, but Stempniak’s offense is a desirable commodity in the NHL… and he’s not horrid on the forecheck when he actually skates.
The problem I have is, once you get beyond the one for one option, and you add in Stempniak or White, and all we get back in return is a 4th round pick? Then I have a bit of a problem with this deal.
As some posters have said earlier, Burke turned down a White for a 2nd round pick offer last season… so I’d have to assume that means that White is worth Clarkson as far as Burke is concerned? So does that mean Stempniak is equivalent to a 4th rounder?
I hate to think we gave up Colaiacovo and Steen for a guy we value as much as a 4th round pick… and that’s my issue with the deal.
Although obviously if it was going to happen, it would already have happened by now in all likelihood. Rumours are Rumours for a reason.
By koopa kid
on Jun 17, 2009
What’s with this “dumping Stempniak” business anyway? He’s not the best forward on the roster, but he put up more goals and points than Steen did on a better Blues team in the same period of time. Would we be arguing over “dumping” Steen in this situation? Over a few million in salary? Because I guarantee there still wouldn’t be room for Colaiacovo anywhere on our roster if that trade had never happened.
By Steve
on Jun 17, 2009
To be fair to Steen in regards to the point production argument, Stempniak was dealt to the Leafs to open up space on the top two lines for the likes of Oshie, Perron, Backlund, etc. They had the same problem the Leafs do now.
Steen was given far less PP time with the Blues than Stempniak was. Steen was 10th on the Blues depth chart for forwards on the Power Play, while Stempniak led the Leafs forwards.
Considering Stempniak produced 7 more points than Steen, and played almost twice as much on the Power Play… that’s a pretty huge indictment of his offensive production.
If Steen had led the Blues in PP minutes their Power Play might have suffered, but I’d bet he would have scored more than 7 extra points and we’d be right back to discussing how to dump Stempniak.
Also in regards to that “better Blues team” business - Steen’s quality of teammates according to BehindTheNet.ca was -0.21, while Stempniak’s was +0.04. Steen’s quality of competition was +0.07 while Stempniak’s was -0.01. So Stempniak had better line mates, and played weaker competition, while Steen had much crappier line mates and played against superior competition. That too might indicate why there is a discrepancy in their production.
Steen is superior defensively, and would fit in better as a bottom 6 forward at this point than Stempniak would. If we adjust our perspectives on Steen and realize that he’s a very solid defensive winger, and don’t try to expect huge point production out of him, his value is obviously higher than that of an offensive producer who doesn’t produce much.
By Dan
on Jun 18, 2009
Dump Stempniak? I wouldn’t, he’s only got one year left on his contract, that’s this upcoming one. So why would you give him away now when you can give him a go this year, and if it works or doesn’t work, trade him at the deadline for more. In any event, his salary being off the books next year helps more than this year, unless the idea is to sign the Sedins. The cap could be coming down next year and it’s looks to be a rich UFA year.
By Dan
on Jun 18, 2009
TSN “According to a report on Swedish website expressen.se, Daniel and Henrik Sedin are looking for identical 12-year contracts worth $63 million each, comparable to the 12-year, $73 million deal that fellow countryman Henrik Zetterberg signed with the Detroit Red Wings.”
Guess that means they’re not coming to Toronto. Burke has already said he wont give out contracts greater than 5 years in length. He’ll have no part of it.
By Steve
on Jun 18, 2009
Or they’re just telling Vancouver they’re not coming back without actually coming out and saying it.
What they ask Vancouver for and what they end up with are two completely different things.
By Dan
on Jun 18, 2009
Looks to me like they’ve spent a good load of time with Zetterberg. It’s the same contract he signed. “Look, all the cool Swedes are doing it…” Just kidding! I don’t blame them for asking for the moon. Vancouver’s a beautiful city, great fans, and they’ve got a good team. If I was a player, I’d love to have security like that and know that no matter what I’m leaving the game with more than 80+ million (not to mention advertising contracts…) whoa, I just about puked!
By koopa kid on Jun 19, 2009
I’m not sure you can guarantee the extra production from Steen like you think you can, other than his rookie season he’s never put up more than 9 PP points in a season (and none of the Leafs who put up career highs for PP points in that season have come close to their totals since).
You can call Steen a better defensive forward, but the issue was that he didn’t believe that was his role on the Leafs. His pace for 16 points and a -16 (I know, +/- bad) doesn’t really help his case for sticking with the team either.
I know Leafs fans are/were high on Steen, and I know the value you yourself place on the kid. But I’m just not sure the data we have should necessarily be interpreted the way you’re doing it.
I’m not trying to say Stempniak is the better player by any large margin, I’m saying the trade was a gamble for us that largely turned out to be a wash for both teams, and in that light I don’t understand the maligning of Lee or the pining for Steen.