More Proof You Don’t Need To Draft First Overall
March 28th, 2009 by SteveJust take a look at the top producers for the St. Louis Blues of late.
Sure they drafted Erik Johnson first overall a few years ago… but he’s injured and they’re still playing amazingly well these days for Andy Murray. So who is doing the heavy lifting? Well… aside from former Leafs first round draft picks Steen, Colaiacovo, and Boyes? David Perron, Patrick Berglund, T.J. Oshie, and David Backes would all be solid places to start. Where were those 4 drafted? 26th, 25th, 24th, and 62nd overall respectively… not exactly what most people would describe as lottery territory.
The scary part is, the Blues still have Alex Pieterangelo, Johnson, Lars Eller, and Ian Cole who aren’t currently suiting up for the Blues. Pieterangelo got a sniff earlier this season after being drafted 4th overall (ahead of Luke Schenn) at this past year’s draft. Johnson is out with an injury. Eller is playing for the Swedish Elite League champs Frolunda, and Cole is currently skating for the top ranked NCAA team in the US, Notre Dame in the Frozen Four tournament.
Does it REALLY matter to Leafs fans if we don’t pick first overall? Sure Tavares would be nice, and Hedman would be dandy… but there’s a LOT of talented hockey players in the world, and missing out on those two won’t be the end of the world. No matter WHAT the Toronto Media would have you believe.
Posted in Player Analysis, Prospects
7 Responses to “More Proof You Don’t Need To Draft First Overall”
By Jason Chen
on Mar 28, 2009
There’s no shortage of talented hockey players, but none of those guys you mentioned, other than perhaps Johnson, are franchise players. The Leafs lack that certain player (maybe Schenn, but even a comparable like Adam Foote played second fiddle for most of his career) that can carry a team. That’s not mentioning that either Hedman or Tavares would provide a massive boost to ticket sales.
Tough to say right now if a re-building team needs a number one pick but it certainly helps - just ask the Pens and Caps.
By Starved
on Mar 28, 2009
Massive boost to ticket sales?
By Steve
on Mar 28, 2009
If St. Louis lacks a “franchise” player at the moment does it really matter when they’ve gone on the tear they have since Jan 1st? Also, it’s a bit early to decide none of the players mentioned are franchise players. They’re all early on in their careers at this point. I don’t think one could argue that Tavares or Hedman are even “franchise” players yet since they have yet to play a game in the NHL. Either one or both could yet pan out to be a bust… not that I think they will.
On the second point…How the hell would Tavares or Hedman boost the Leafs ticket sales? They sell out every single game in Toronto already. That’s the worst argument I’ve seen for drafting either player yet.
Erik Johnson isn’t even in the line up and St. Louis have played amazingly well. “Franchise” players may be slightly over-rated if you’ve decided the Blues suck due to a lack of one.
Mats Sundin didn’t exactly win a Cup for the Leafs, so does having a Franchise player guarantee success?
By Jason Chen
on Mar 29, 2009
Obviously Tavares/Hedman won’t generate any more revenue than the Leafs need - but I was referring to other teams, like the Islanders, who will most likely get the number one pick this year. You honestly don’t think their ticket sales will go way up? Look what Stamkos did for Tampa. Obviously it went down the drain in the first month but over the summer there was a definite surge in hockey buzz in Florida.
You could argue that Tavares and Hedman aren’t franchise players yet, but they’re expected to be. You could also argue that when Malkin, Crosby, Ovechkin were drafted they weren’t franchise players yet, but teams draft them on the assumption that they would. Oshie, Perron, Backes, Berglund, etc. weren’t. And they probably won’t be.
I never said having a franchise player guarantees success. Read my post. But it helps, there’s simply no denying that.
By Steve
on Mar 29, 2009
I would say Ovechkin, Malkin and Crosby had done more to warrant their level of hype than either Tavares or Hedman have.
Ovechkin and Malkin produced consistently at the World Juniors for multiple years, Malkin was one of the top players in the KHL, and Crosby similarly dominated the World Juniors as an underage player.
Tavares didn’t really do much in his first year at the Juniors, but this past season he had a larger impact.
Hedman has been hit or miss in his various efforts on the world stage at this point. He is a Defender though and that gives a slightly different perspective on his exploits to this point.
You are correct in saying that Malkin, Ovechkin, and Crosby were not necessarily franchise players before they were drafted… unfortunately that is pretty much irrelevant since all three are now obviously franchise players.
Those 3 have already gone through the draft and played in the NHL, Tavares and Hedman haven’t. You can see the difference I am sure.
By Jason Chen
on Mar 31, 2009
I am more than aware of the fact that neither Tavares nor Hedman have made the NHL.
How can you say Tavares didn’t do much in his first year of junior? 45 goals, 77 points in 65 games after cracking the Oshawa lineup as a 15-year old? That’s unheard of. Even Crosby’s first year with Rimouski was when he was 16. Remember that Tavares petitioned the league to allow him to enter the draft one year early because he was clearly heads and shoulders above his draft class and had already spent 4 years in junior. Even Crosby didn’t get such consideration - obviously Tavares was a special case because of his birthdate but saying he “didn’t really do much” in his first year is completely off the mark.
I’m pretty sure we’re arguing the same thing here to varying degrees, but either way the moment Tavares and Hedman get drafted they’ll give their respective teams a boost.
By Steve
on Mar 31, 2009
I was referring to the IIHF WORLD JUNIORS. In 2008 at his first tournament as a 17 year old, he finished tied for 5th on the Canadian team in scoring at the tournament with 4 goals and 1 assist to go along with an even rating.
In Crosby’s first go around he finished 4th on the team as a 16 year old, but he put up 2 goals and 3 assists for 5 points and a +4 rating.
Tavares didn’t make the team the first time he went to camp. I’m aware of the rule change to enter the league as a 15 year old.
My point wasn’t in regards to his play in the OHL vs. the QMJHL.
As for Crosby vs. Tavares - Crosby entered the QMJHL with Rismouski in the 2003-04 season, and he was born on August 7th. He had been 16 for exactly 2 months when he joined the Q. Tavares has a late birthday (September 20) so he was behind the cut off by a few days, and thus was really only a month younger than Crosby in his first year in the league.
Compare the first year numbers and you get Tavares - 45 goals, 77 points. Crosby you get 54 goals and 81 assists for 135 points. That’s almost double the production… do you really think an extra 2 months made that big a difference in Sidney’s production?
Let’s remember that Sidney only played 2 years of Junior, and scored 168 points in his 17 year old season in 62 games.
Tavares in 56 games has 104 points at the same age. He’ll probably make the jump to the NHL next year, but his numbers aren’t as awe inspiring as they seemed a couple of years ago. His point totals have declined 3 years in a row.
I’m not saying Tavares will be a bust, but he’s not really in the same class as Crosby at this point. Crosby and Ovechkin are on pace to come close to the point totals of Wayne Gretzky… I don’t think we can say the same about Tavares yet.
Either way… They’ll help the team yes, but I just don’t think it’ll be as huge as advertised.