Ian White MVP?
March 26th, 2009 by Steve
Ok so I was perusing the Hockey News earlier, and came across this tidbit by Adam Proteau on the Leafs and the value of some of their players. Not sure I agree with it all that much… but let’s see what Proteau had to say:
“TORONTO
MVP: Ian White
NMVP Contenders: Alexei Ponikarovsky, Jason Blake, Luke Schenn
NMVP Winner: Luke Schenn
Why? Slim pickings here, huh? I feel pretty good about comparing White to a young Dan Boyle; it may have taken Toronto management the first month of the season to give the defenseman a chance, but he seized it with both hands and now averages more on-ice minutes than any other Maple Leafs skater. As for the NMVP – there’s only one untouchable on the roster and he brings home the prize.”
Ok issue #1 - Ian White is the Leafs MVP? He isn’t their highest scoring D man; he isn’t even close to their top offensive producer. Heck, while he has a decent +/- rating, he’s actually been on the ice for 10 more goals against than goals for (76 GA, 66 GF). Despite all that time on the PP (more PP ice time than Niklas Hagman), he’s only been on the ice for 9 power play goals (Hagman has been out there for 17, White’s been out there for 9). His offense isn’t what it’s made out to be… even for a Leafs blue liner… and his D isn’t quite as stellar as is being discussed either. I would have gone with Jason Blake personally… mainly due to his torrid scoring pace through January and February, but that obviously had less impact in Proteau’s eyes.
What makes White so “valuable” is the fact that he’s cheap. For what the Leafs are paying him, he’s doing a bang up job.
Which brings me to my key point. What the hell is with the comparison to Dan Boyle? Here’s what Proteau had to say about that, back in October of 2007:
“Nevertheless, if you compare White’s numbers to Tampa Bay star Dan Boyle who, like White, is a smallish, speedy, offense-oriented D-man you’ll see some distinct similarities which should be encouraging for all White’s fans.
In Boyle’s first NHL stint (in 1998-99, with Florida), he played 22 games and amassed eight points; in White’s initial foray into the league in 2005-06, he had six points in 12 games. As well, in Boyle’s first full NHL campaign, he put up 22 points in 69 games with the Panthers; last season, White finished with 26 points in 76 games.
I’m not guaranteeing White will follow Boyle’s career trajectory and there are people in the industry who believe the Maple Leaf will forever be a depth defenseman but it took Boyle until he was 27 [sic] to have his first true breakout year. White is only 23, so any attempts to put a ceiling on his skills now are a bit premature.”
Here’s what Proteau failed to mention. Boyle was actually 26 in his breakout year. In his second full season he put up 26 points in 66 games split between the Panthers and the Lightning… but that’s misleading. You see, when Boyle was playing for the Panthers - and this was back from 1998-99 to 2000-01 - he was brought in as an offensive defenseman who had put up 50+ points in the AHL. He never really got the chance to produce with the Panthers though, and his ice time in Florida actually decreased from an initial high of 18:50 per game to 15:40 per game in the season he was dealt to Tampa Bay.
When the Lightning traded for him, he had 3 goals and 3 assists for 6 points in 25 games with the Panthers. Following the deal, they gave him top minutes, and he produced. He was playing 22:28 a game for the Lightning and in 41 games at the end of the year, he had 5 goals and 15 assists for 20 points. He was scoring at a 0.49 ppg clip. That carried over into the next season when he improved to a 0.69 ppg player. He was playing 24:31 a game, and he scored 13 goals and 40 assists for 53 points in 77 games.
Ian White has been getting more ice time from the get go with the Leafs. His seasonal averages have gone from 19:07 to 18:32 to 18:48 in his first 3 years in the NHL. This year he’s up to 22:48 per game. Has his production shot up to match like Boyles did? Nope. He had 26 points as a 22 year old, he had 21 points as a 23 year old, and this year he has 23 points as a 24 year old. Not exactly the explosion one observed with Boyle when he moved into a new situation.
One could also note that Boyle’s point explosion came when Tampa was scoring around 219 goals in a season, while this year, White’s Leafs have produced 222 goals with 9 games to go. Considering the fact that Kaberle and Kubina have both produced more points, one of whom has played in 15 fewer games, and you do wonder if there’s much point in pretending Ian White will somehow morph into Dan Boyle.
I’ve been pleasantly surprised with Ian White, but he’s not going to develop into a 60 point per year D man - with or without his mustache… that’s crazy talk.
Posted in Uncategorized
6 Responses to “Ian White MVP?”
By Mike
on Mar 26, 2009
I have to stand up for Ian White this year. It has been a great story.. from press box to leading the team in ice time. However, he has now gone 29 games without a point on the PP. I really don’t want to criticize White and spoil the great story, but his one timer can be caught by a 4 yr old without a glove he is as slow a skater as there ever has been put the puck on his stick and he almost stops. I think he has the hockey sense of Ray Bourque but when he tries to act on it he’s in trouble. He just doesn’t have the skill. When he plays within himself he is valuable player not top 4 but worth having around. He has had a pretty good year at least I dont think his full name is ” White pinches and here comes the Sens on a 2 on 1″ anymore
By koopa kid
on Mar 27, 2009
Ian White’s performance and service for this team this season is commendable, for a player of his stature and talent level he’s been eating big minutes after weathering adversity, and I can’t fault him for that.
But he’s the most overrated defenseman on this team, by fans and the media. He has shown no signs of breaking out, no sign that he will one day actually become worthy of top pairing minutes in terms of defense and production. He’s simply a solid depth guy who is weathering big minutes.
If White played forward, or if we were to convince him to stop taking weak slappers from the blue line and feed him pucks down by the circle, then we might be talking point production.
By Dan
on Mar 27, 2009
What I like about White is that he’s actually got the heart of a guy like Wendel out there. He plays with passion, you can see how much he cares. I like that he shoots, moves his feet to get into clear ice and scores goals in tighter games. The mustache is a keeper too, not many guys put that kind of style into their game.
Maybe he hasn’t put up staggaring numbers, but he’s still young. Don’t forget that Boyle was like 26 when he broke out. a couple of years is a big difference (26-27 is considered prime of the career by many). I’m sure that in his prime White will put up 50 points. I know I wasn’t the top guy at my firm when I was 24, but I was a lot stronger a couple of years later. It’s hard to compare players, but I don’t think that its that much of a stretch to see Ian as a 50 point dman.
By Steve
on Mar 27, 2009
You don’t think it’s a stretch to project that a player will DOUBLE his production without changing his ice time? Why would his production suddenly double?
Sorry it doesn’t make much sense to me. Unless the Leafs suddenly change all the talent around him and up front… which might yet happen… I don’t really see him suddenly posting 50 points. That’s a huge stretch, and I honestly don’t think he has the skill level to produce that many points.
By Dan
on Mar 27, 2009
To be fair, in an 81 game schedule Ian White is on pace for 30 points. In two years thats an extra ten points per year. Not unfathomable. I didn’t say next year, I said in two years. So it’s more gradual then sudden.
I believe you predicted Steen would explode to 55 to 60 points this year. I didn’t think it was a stretch to predict that, in fact I agreed with you. I don’t think that it’s that crazy that a player who has confidence and the coaches backing, is surrounded by better players, comes in right from training camp, could put up 50 points when he’s healthy.
Up until the past 10 games he was on pace for 34 points over 81 games. So, no I don’t think it’s that big of a stretch over two years to increase 8 points per year.
By Steve
on Mar 28, 2009
Ok, I’m not trying to disparage you as a person here Dan. I just don’t honestly think there’s any indication that Ian White will morph into a 50 point per season D man.
The Alex Steen situation never happened in Toronto for a number of reasons, not the least of which was Ron Wilson relegating him to a checking role, and his own lack of production at the beginning of the season.
In fact, what appeared to happen is Matt Stajan was given the opportunity that Steen probably should have been granted.
Steen has 24 points on the year in 73 games to go along with a -12 rating… probably an indication he didn’t pan out as I’d expected. That being said, he’s also only averaging 16:33 of ice time a game, and he plays over double the time on the penalty kill that he plays on the power play.
Stajan on the other hand has 51 points this season with a -6 rating, and he leads the Leafs with 36 assists on the year.
Steen’s confidence obviously took a huge hit earlier on this year, and I don’t know that the trade to St. Louis benefited him in that regard. Either way, I DO make fairly major mistakes from time to time… obviously.
So… if Ian White suddenly turns into a 50 point per season D man, I will happily admit I was wrong. I still do not see any reason to think he will improve by 8 points over each of the next two seasons.
A few problems with the analysis you were making in regards to the 82 game schedule projection. A fair number of his points were scored early in the season when he was playing as a Winger (3 of his goals and 4 of his assists) when he was producing 7 points in his first 8 games of the season.
As a D man this year he actually has 16 points in the remaining 56 games he has played this season (1 of those came when he played as a forward, but I’m trying not to be TOO pedantic here). Anyway, that actually projects to a 23 point season as a defender, not a 30 point season. For him to suddenly go from 21 points in 81 games last season as a blue liner, to a 23 point “pace” in his 64 games as a blue liner, I don’t really understand what he’s doing in your eyes to warrant the projection of a 16 point increase over the next two seasons.
If you think the Leafs are dealing Kaberle and Kubina, then yes he’ll likely get more PP time, but he isn’t producing on the power play particularly well, so that won’t have a huge effect. He’s been the Leafs minute leader with Kaberle out of the line up, and he hasn’t suddenly produced a tonne of points… so yeah I’m still not sure if I follow the logic on all of this.
In the new year, he has 4 goals and 10 assists in 38 games, to go along with a -6 rating. Saving him was one game against Pittsburgh where he had a +5 rating. He really hasn’t played that amazingly well since January 1st, and yet the Leafs have been on their best stretch of play, since the All-Star break, all season long.
If he’s a 30 point a year D man, that’s FINE, and for what he costs, it’s actually quite excellent. What he is not, is a top pairing guy who should be playing 24+ minutes a night though. He’s not strong enough defensively to warrant the ice time at this stage of the game… but that’s just my opinion.
In 2 years, if he improves in his own end some more, then maybe that goes away, and he can play 24+ minutes and I won’t care one way or another, but right now he’s benefitting from playing for a weak Toronto side and getting big ice time.