Nashville Comparisons
January 13th, 2009 by SteveOk, so during the loss against the Preds earlier tonight, Leafs TV flashed up some names of Predators who have only ever played for the Nashville organization in their NHL careers, right after Joe Bowen had mentioned the fact that Nashville had 8 Predator Draft Picks in their line up. Craig Millen and Bowen then waxed philisophically about how the Preds really “dedicate themselves to building through the draft.”
To be fair, this is a reasonable assessment of the Predators. What is unreasonable, is the fact that the commentators on the Leafs failed to mention the fact that many of the top scorers on the Predators, were NOT minted in the Nashville organization. In fact, the make up of the Leafs and Predators is really not all that dissimilar - yet Nashville is a virtuous drafting hotbed of hockey… and Toronto is slowly coming out of it’s skin as a backwards thinking holdover of an organization from a bygone era of Free Agent signings and failure.
Here is a list of the Nashville players who have played for them this season, that were either drafted by or signed by the Predators without having played any games for another organization at the NHL level:
Shea Weber, Martin Erat, Ryan Suter, David Legwand, Joel Ward, Dan Hamhuis, Vernon Fiddler, Rich Peverley, Greg Zanon, Ryan Jones, Ville Koistinen, Patric Hornqvist, Jordin Tootoo, Kevin Klein, Antti Pihlstrom, Mike Santorelli, and Pekka Rinne. (16 skaters, 1 goalie)
You’ll be forgiven if you don’t recognize anyone after the first 5 or 6 names. Now here’s a list of the players on the Preds that were brought in from other franchises:
J.P. Dumont, Jason Arnott, Steve Sullivan, Radek Bonk, Greg de Vries, Nick Tarnasky, Wade Belak, and Dan Ellis. (7 skaters, 1 goalie)
So their top 2 or 3 offensive forwards, their top faceoff man, their top veteran D man, two of their main checking forwards, and their starting goaltender.
Now let’s look at the Leafs lineup. Here are the Leafs from this season, that were either drafted by or picked up before ever playing for another NHL franchise:
Nik Antropov, Matt Stajan, Alexei Ponikarovsky, Tomas Kaberle, Nikolai Kulemin, John Mitchell, Ian White, Anton Stralman, Jeremy Williams, Jonas Frogren, Luke Schenn, Jamie Sifers, Andre Deveaux, Jiri Tlusty, Kris Newbury, and Justin Pogge. (15 skaters, 1 goalie)
I’m not including Alex Steen or Carlo Colaiacovo on the list, but they did suit up for the Leafs this year, and they were both drafted by the Leafs in the first round. If I were to include them, the Leafs would be up to 17 skaters.
Now here are the Leafs that originated with other franchises:
Jason Blake, Mikhail Grabovski, Niklas Hagman, Dominic Moore, Pavel Kubina, Jeff Finger, Mike Van Ryn, Lee Stempniak, Jamal Mayers, Ryan Hollweg, Brad May, Vesa Toskala, and Curtis Joseph. (11 skaters, 2 goalies)
While that list includes 4 of the Leafs top offensive forwards, 3 of their top 4 veteran D, both of their veteran goalies, and almost all of their toughness, I still think it deserves notice that the Leafs entire top line was developed internally.
Stajan, Ponikarovsky, and Antropov are products of the Leafs organization, and despite the nay saying the Leafs often hear about those types of players, the three of them have produced a combined 37 goals and 95 points. Toss in Tomas Kaberle, the Leafs top offensive D man, and you have the top 4 point producers on the club, all developed by Toronto, combining for 40 goals and 121 points.
The top 4 internally developed Nashville players from an offensive perspective are Shea Weber, Martin Erat, Ryan Suter, and David Legwand. They have combined for 37 goals and 103 points.
Considering that the top Nashville offensive prospect bolted for Russia, and may or may not be heard from in the near future, they don’t really have much in the way of up and coming scoring threats.
The Leafs have some decent offensive options at this point, though much of it may be on it’s way out, due to problems keeping the puck out of the net.
I do find it a tad ironic that the Leafs current plan of attack seems to revolve around trading away players that the Leafs drafted and developed. Blasting a club for not developing any players, while ignoring the fact that the team has almost as many internally developed players as the teams you hold up as an example is a bit ludicrous.
Is the problem a failure to stick with the talent the Leafs draft or to attempt to “build” from within as Leafs fans are often told? OR is the problem a failure to identify the right talent, and/or a failure to develop it adequately?
I guess we’ll get Brian Burke’s take on the situation soon enough. All I know is, we have to put a couple more of our own players in place to be considered a team that’s “developing through the draft”… or perhaps win a couple of games?
Posted in Player Analysis, Prospects
17 Responses to “Nashville Comparisons”
By Flaco
on Jan 14, 2009
Dear Maple Leafs,
Can you please beat some of these west teams we’re chasing?
-Dallas Stars
By BeLeafer11
on Jan 14, 2009
Great blog Steve. Thanks
By daoust
on Jan 14, 2009
great work. i actually said “give me a f8cking break” out loud last night when they put up that preds list. i’m supposed to be impressed that a team that’s trying to scrape into the playoffs drafted most of their 2nd tier players? ridiculous.
By Marco
on Jan 14, 2009
Forgive other fans for not knowing who most of our players are after the first few. Frankly our best players are 2nd tier…
By Jason Chen
on Jan 14, 2009
I actually really admire the Preds and what they’ve done. They lost Ryan Parent, Vokoun, Hartnell, Upshall, Kariya, and Forsberg, all key or major players, because of ownership troubles. Yet Poile and Trotz have clinged onto their jobs and still ice a fairly competitive team. They were probably Detroit’s toughest opponent last year in the West.
Their strength in drafting isn’t at drafting forwards, but defensemen. The list is just amazing and trounces any of the other 29 teams in the league. However, their lack of a drafted marquee forward can’t be attributed to their poor scouting or development, but rather because they really don’t pick forwards with their first rounders too often. Over the past ten drafts (of their entire drafting history) only 5 forwards have been taken in the first round. Two of them are currently in Philly (Upshall and Hartnell), one is in Russia (Radulov) but the last one really seems to be a keeper (Colin Wilson).
By Max Power
on Jan 14, 2009
Agreed. We consistently hear from the so-called experts and assorted hockey pundits about the merits of “building through the draft”, and subsequently hear them sing the praises of an organization like Nashville–who have a playoff pedigree only marginally more impressive than the Atlanta Thrashers. These wizards of hockey knowledge are always criticizing the Leafs for their poor record on draft day, the “mortgaging of the future” and blah, blah, blah. It somehow escapes their attention that while Nashville was hoarding draft picks to accomplish their goal of scoring big at the draft table, the team on the ice was wallowing in mediocrity….which is hardly surprising when management is exchanging any decent, useful players for draft choices! And during this time, those foolish, short-sighted Leafs are piling up playoff appearances and contending for the Stanley Cup while also managing to use the draft to produce, as the previous blogger Steve astutely pointed out, 15 of the players currently on the club. This record compares quite favorably with Nashville’s 16 + 1 goaltender–and little to no playoff success. I point this out not to beat on the poor ol’ Preds, but to give some well deserved props to our much-maligned Maple Leafs. Say what you will about the teams management in recent years(I know I have), but they can’t be faulted for at least aggressively looking for ways to improve the club with the goal of competing for the big prize. That approach will always have an element of risk and reward, and unfortunately for the teams of the past 4-5 years, it hasn’t proved successful(though I do believe we are now headed in the right direction). So, while I do believe that draft success is a vital part of any winning organization(especially now in the salary capped era), it is not the only part–and in any case, the goal remains the same–to hopefully have the opportunity to compete for Lord Stanley’s Cup.
By Jason Chen
on Jan 14, 2009
Max, the Preds have made the playoffs 4 straight years. Atlanta once since the lockout (I believe) and the Leafs none. I would say the Preds, by virtue of even making it into the playoffs, deserves more praise than being compared to the Thrashers.
However, I do agree that the Leafs’ drafting isn’t as “awful” as everyone makes it out to be, and that the Wings drafting isn’t as “great” as it’s made out to be either. Say what you want, but there’s an element of luck when you can unearth Datsyuk and Zetterberg in the later rounds. Everyone knows that after round 3 it’s literally a crap shoot.
By Gerald Norton
on Jan 14, 2009
“Greg” Millen.
To be fair Steve, the Leaf list *might* include 2 names western conf. fans would recognize (Kaberle, Schenn).
The absence of any elite players on the Leafs list is the issue, and that is why the franchise is trying to retain, and aquire draft picks going forward.
The fact remains that the Leafs have done a poor job of drafting , and or retaining good players.
This is likely more a result of a different paradigm, namely, the org has cash, and could spend to bring in UFA’s, and trade picks for players.
With the cap this advantage has been mitigated, and now the Leafs are reacting (theoretically).
By Polecon
on Jan 14, 2009
Incidentally, Rich Peverley was waived to Atlanta this week so Nashville’s list of keepers would be also 15 +1.
Great post
By bkblades
on Jan 14, 2009
Gerald,
Wouldn’t the lack of elite players be an issue of the Leafs not retaining many of their first rounders, let alone a high first rounder, than an issue with poor drafting? Frankly, the ability of the Leafs to produce that many regulars (and they are NHL regulars on any team, considering the rumblings and increased scout presence in recent Leafs games of potentially trading for them) is pretty good considering the lack of draft pick hoarding by the Leafs. Furthermore, if the Leafs are incapable of drafting elite players, why would it be an issue that the Leafs can’t retain good players? Who are these players are we talking about? Alex Steen? Alyn McCauley?
By Steve
on Jan 14, 2009
Ok Gerald,
Apologies to the Millen clan.
Couple of problems I’ve got with your statements. Firstly, I sincerely doubt Western Conference followers would have a hard time identifying Antropov, Ponikarovsky, or Stajan. Frogren was in the news all summer as a result of his contract issues (he was originally drafted by the Flames). Pogge was a former starter for the Canadian World Junior club that won a gold medal… I’m guessing most Canadians are aware of his existence.
Secondarily… you argue that the Leafs have zero elite players. Tomas Kaberle is fairly elite. Luke Schenn is considered elite. Antropov and Ponikarovsky aren’t far off… despite what people keep saying. They might not be “elite” but they certainly aren’t the bottom of the barrel either.
Lastly, I have to agree with bkblades here… if the Leafs suck at drafting high caliber players… then how can they suck at retaining them? Don’t they have to have them in the first place in order to retain them?
If you admit that Kaberle is an “elite” player, then haven’t they done well to “retain” him for his entire career thus far? They’ve kept Antropov and Ponikarovsky… two of their best draft picks of the last decade. Stajan is still in the fold. Steen and Colaiacovo were let go after sub-par starts to the season, and they had seemingly stagnated in Toronto, so I doubt most fans would disagree with that idea. The only one I can think of in recent memory is Tuuka Rask
They need more HIGH draft picks… agreed. They need to keep them… they’re already doing that.
The original point of the article was that they aren’t that different from Nashville. If we’re worried about teams retaining top picks… shouldn’t Nashville enter the conversation with Radulov? Just wondering.
By Gerald Norton
on Jan 14, 2009
O.k. Leaf media saturation not withstanding, there would likely be no more then 2 players on your list that would, on their own merits, draw the attention of non Leaf followers. Just because Leaf players receive 10x the media coverage of 90% of the reamaining players, does not make them more skilled, or noteworthy.
Outside of Leafdom, neither Schenn nor Kaberle are considered “elite”. Very good, yes, but not elite.
Draft/retain. This relates to 2 things;
1. They give away picks, thus fail to draft well. You cannot draft well, if you don’t draft!
2. When they do draft, they have been shown to make poor decisions both in quantity, and quality. The teams record in the 2nd round is abysmal.
Since 1997 to 2003, 64 picks - 11 proven NHL calibre players, 1 star, 0 elite. Of those 11, 4 remain with the team (not the star).
That’s not a good showing.
By Steve
on Jan 14, 2009
Who pray tell is the star?
Brad Boyes? He of the 35 points and -23 rating? I don’t know if those are star like numbers. Hell, Stajan has 32 points in 5 fewer games, and he is only -6. Ponikarovsky has 30 points and he is +3.
Or maybe we’re referring to… Steve Sullivan? While he didn’t play for two years, I would say he was a “star” before the back problems felled him. But he isn’t one now.
And are you seriously arguing that Schenn and Kaberle are not considered either an elite prospect (Schenn) or player (Kaberle)?? Talk about a Sens fan with anti-Leaf bias.
Schenn was taken 5th overall… and was considered the best defensive prospect in last year’s draft. He is an “elite” prospect… according to both biased and unbiased observers.
Kaberle is considered one of the top D men to ever come out of the Czech republic… BY the Czech republic. They’re not exactly Leafs fans necessarily. He captained their most recent outfit at the world championships, and is normally ahead of players like Kubina, Zidlicky, and Roszival on their depth chart.
Offensively he is one of the top 4 point producing D men since the lockout… and he plays big minutes.
I really don’t know what “elite” amounts to in your mind… sounds fairly arbitrary to me on your part…
As for the 11 proven NHL caliber players? What proves someone is NHL caliber? I’m quite certain there are NHL caliber players in the minors on deep teams, and players in the NHL on weak outfits (like Toronto) that would be in the minors on another club. That doesn’t mean they aren’t NHL caliber though.
If they’re playing a regular shift in the NHL… they are NHL caliber. If we’re following that logic, you’d have to include Steen, Stajan, Ponikarovsky, Antropov, White, Mitchell, Colaiacovo, Williams, Adam Mair, Brad Boyes, Mikael Tellqvist, Kyle Wellwood, Karel Pilar (heart problems derailed his career but he was NHL caliber). You could probably toss Pogge and Rask in there to boot, since the main reason neither is in the NHL has been the salaried netminders in front of them with experience. That’s 13 before I even get into the two goalies. If you’re excluding Williams, that’s a bit harsh on your part as he has played at the NHL for extended periods… and has not looked horribly out of place.
Following a similar tack with Ottawa we find they have drafted 66 players over the same stretch. Of that number, 20 played as NHL regulars… so yes they’ve obviously had superior drafting. Doesn’t that make it a bit more ironic that they are currently BEHIND the Leafs in the standings? Just wondering.
By Starved
on Jan 15, 2009
Even the difference of 20 to 15 can be explained pretty much by the number of 1st round picks the two teams have had since ‘97. The Sens have had 13, the Leafs have had 8.
Furthermore, one of the Leafs’ picks was Luca Cereda, who may have turned out just fine if it wasn’t for his heart condition.
By Gerald Norton
on Jan 15, 2009
I would not consider a one dimensional player as being “elite” (Schenn). I like Schenn, a lot, wish he was a Sen, and he’ll be a great player, but he lacks a complete game. Kaberle has benefited greatly (hype) by being on the Leafs, he’s good, but not elite. Accuse me of being biased, fine, but consider your myopathy too.
Boyes would be the only star, albeit, he’s had a poor season. I was actually trying to be generous.
Herme, Hossa, Arvedsson, Rachunek, Langfeld, Fisher, Neil, Schastlivy, Havlat, Kelly, Prusek, Volchenkov, Vermette, Zanon, Spezza, Gleason, Emery, Schubert, Laich, Bochenski, Eaves. 21 players, all drafted by Ottawa between ‘97 and ‘03, and all played, or play regularly in the NHL. Possibly add Elliot by the end of the year, for 22. Mattias Karlsson will likely make the jump next year, for 23. 68 drafted, 22 played or playing regularly in the NHL, for 32.4%. 87.5% in the 1st round (8), 27.5% from the 3rd rnd (51)or later. 11.1% in the 2nd round.
In that same period the Leafs drafted 64 players, with 11 players who have played or play regularly in the NHL, for 17.1%. 80% in the 1st rnd (5), 22.6% in the 3rd rnd (31)or higher. 16.6 % in the 2nd rnd.
As for the Sens current points standing, no defense available, whatsoever.
BTW, Pilar is still playing professional hockey.
By Starved
on Jan 15, 2009
How does 2 of 6 equal 16.6%?
So Pilar with his 90 NHL games cut short by medical condition is out, but Brandon Bochenski is in with his 120?
You don’t make allowance for Cereda either. If it wasn’t for heart conditions Toronto’s 1st and 2nd round records would better Ottawa’s.
Maybe your numbers aren’t really significant?
And isn’t Brendan Bell taking a regular(ish) shift with the Sens this year?
By Starved
on Jan 16, 2009
So, taking my own look at the DB Hockey Draft history, I get the following results:
Between ‘97 and ‘03, the Leafs drafted 14 players who have played at least 40 games in a single season in the NHL. Over the same period, the Sens drafted 21. I’ve included backup goalies that have played less than 40 games in any given season, but are, or were, full time members of an NHL club for at least a season (Prusek, Hurme and Tellqvist).
Mair, Thornton, Hedstrom, Antropov, Poni, Boyes, Tellqvist, Carlo, Pilar, Wellwood, Steen, Stajan, White, and Mitchell for the Leafs.
Hossa, Hurme, Arvedson, Langfeld, Rachnek, Fisher, Schastlivy, Neil, Havlat, Kelly, Volchenkov, Vermette, Zanon, Spezza, Gleason, Emery, Schubert, Laich, Bochenski and Eaves.
Toronto’s stats are:
1st round 80%, 4 of 5 (100% if you discount the Cereda pick).
2nd round 33%, 2 of 6.
3rd and higher 15%, 8 of 53.
Ottawa’s stats are:
1st round 75%, 6 of 8.
2nd round 29%, 2 of 7.
3rd and higher 25%, 13 of 51.
Ottawa has definitely had more success in the 3rd round or higher categorie. All in all, I doubt the difference is statistically significant.