Detailed Look At A-Pon And Why He Might Be A Keeper
January 13th, 2009 by SteveI was surfing over at MLHS earlier, and was glad to see an article about one of the best (and most under-rated players) on the Leafs this season, Alexei Ponikarovsky.
In the posting, Ron Guillet brings Ponikarovsky’s production, and his salary as follows:
“With a cap hit of 2.105 million dollars, Ponikarovsky is an affordable, young (28) sniper whose contract terms – 2 years remaining – will only sweeten the pot for potential suitors.
All things considered, I believe Ponikarovsky can garner the Leafs a…
Throw in some dramatic suspense…
2nd-Round Pick.”
Those are decent reasons, but I sincerely feel that a 2nd round pick is a HUGE undersale of Ponikarovsky’s talents and production.
Here are a few of the reasons Ron neglected to mention.
Consider that his goal and point production on a per game basis (0.33 gpg, 0.71 ppg) are on par with (or ahead of) players like Dustin Brown, Ryan Smyth, Keith Tkachuk, Milan Hejduk, Bill Guerin, Andrei Kostitsyn, Thomas Holmstrom, Pavol Demitra, Jason Pominville, Martin Erat, Joe Pavelski, Travis Zajac, Shawn Horcoff, Scott Gomez, and Alex Tanguay.
Then consider the fact that he is younger than 8 of those mentioned.
Then consider the fact that he is making less than every player on that list other than Zajac and Pavelski. He’s actually 5th on that list in +/- at +3, ahead of Tkachuk, Brown, Guerin, Hejduk, Erat, Smyth, Pominville, Demitra, and even Pavelski.
He has the 6th best shooting percentage, and is tied for the most Even Strength goals on the list with 11. He ranks second in Goals Created at 11.7, behind Ryan Smyth, who is making $6.25 million a year.
He also has fewer power play minutes this season than EVERY player on that list, and plays fewer minutes per game than every player other than Andrei Kostitsyn, and Tomas Holmstrom.
“On the other hand, if Ponikarovsky were to adapt as a consistent 50-60 point player, the Leafs would be wise in keeping the sniper. But, considering he’s known to be somewhat of an inconsistent player, this could be short-term.”
As for the consistency question, his longest pointless streak this season is 4 games. 11 of the 15 players I listed have pointless streaks of 4 games or longer (Tanguay went 7 without a point, and Kostitsyn went 6 - who is less consistent?). This despite being moved from line to line and getting less ice time to sort out what’s hampering his production.
Heck, let’s just ignore the fact that his production has increased every year he’s been in the NHL save one (last year). Yes his physical play leaves something to be desired, but he isn’t the complete shrinking violet the Toronto Media make him out to be. He is a relatively entrenched member of the local community, he and his wife and children make their home in Toronto year round. He often plays the role of translator for the younger Soviets on the club. In a year or two, I wouldn’t be shocked if he and/or Antropov would be a reasonable pick as solid Captaincy material. Both regularly deal with the media quite well, and they seem to be leaders on the club. Perhaps if the passion could rachet it’s way up a little bit that would go a long way to impressing their desire to make things work in Toronto on Brian Burke.
Seriously… why the hell would we trade a 28 year old who is producing like that? If the whole premise is to “sell high” perhaps people should be arguing he’s worth a lot MORE than just a second rounder? If you consider his salary, and production, and the fact that he’s quite likely capable of producing MORE if he gets more opportunity, you begin to wonder if he’s worth a highly placed first rounder on his own.
I sincerely hope the Leafs don’t under-sell assets again as they seem to do continuously. Ponikarovsky is one of the most under-rated forwards in the NHL… largely because the Toronto market doesn’t seem to realize what it has got on it’s hands.
Posted in Player Analysis, Stat Analysis
18 Responses to “Detailed Look At A-Pon And Why He Might Be A Keeper”
By eyebleaf
on Jan 13, 2009
I’m glad to see Poni getting some love from you, Steve. I’m a firm believer that you don’t trade him at that price. No way. He’s a bargain. And I love him.
By Yuri Suderov
on Jan 13, 2009
Ponikarovsky is nothing more than a 20 goal 40 point man at the best of times. His trade value is through the roof, if you package him with Antropov and trade them both you could get a HUGE return from the right team. Trust me, you kept around Tucker, McCabe after they had a great season, this is not Poni’s contract year but trust me, trading him is the best option.
By Ron Guillet
on Jan 13, 2009
Steve, nice rebuttal.
But, as stated in my blog, I do agree it’s a delicate situation.
”On the other hand, if Ponikarovsky were to adapt as a consistent 50-60 point player, the Leafs would be wise in keeping the sniper. But, considering he’s known to be somewhat of an inconsistent player, this could be short-term. I will admit, though, that it’s a delicate situation, and keeping him could end up being the logical choice. It’s in Burke’s hands now.”
I’m just not sure if he can keep up with 50-60 points on a consistent basis. If so, I’ll gladly eat my words. But, if he falls back to a 40-point player, a 2nd won’t even happen.
I will agree, though, that the Leafs may be able to get more than a 2nd. It depends on what Poni does in the month and a half that’s left until the Deadline.
By Doug
on Jan 13, 2009
Poni is an excellent player. He is ready to help a team right now. That’s why, if you can get a solid return for him you move him for high picks or prospects who will help the Leafs when they are ready to win. I agree with Yuri, that, because of his Anonymity Toronto could get better value in a package deal.
By Ron Guillet
on Jan 13, 2009
Just to add to my previous comment..
While all those stats are good and dandy, let’s not forget that Poni, before this season, was a 3rd liner playing on the 1st line. Up until now, the majority of Leafs fans (now there’s an interesting dilemma whether to trade him or not) wanted him traded, and the word ”overrated” was not used sparingly.
My point is, while he may be in the midst of a career season, we can’t assume he’ll establish himself as this kind of player. But, on the other hand, we can’t assume he’s going to drop-off either..
Which is why this is so damn difficult.
Good luck, Burke.
Whatever he decides, it’s the right decision….for now.
By Jason Chen
on Jan 13, 2009
“Dustin Brown, Ryan Smyth, Keith Tkachuk, Milan Hejduk, Bill Guerin, Andrei Kostitsyn, Thomas Holmstrom, Pavol Demitra, Jason Pominville, Martin Erat, Joe Pavelski, Travis Zajac, Shawn Horcoff, Scott Gomez, and Alex Tanguay.”
Except all these guys come with a higher pedigree than Poni. If you ranked all those players on a list, Poni would probably be ahead of only two guys: Kostitsyn and Pavelski. You can’t compare his PPG averages to players that are 8 years older than him because it’s not a good comparison. 8 years ago, all of those “oldies” outscored Poni at his age by a country mile. There’s just simply no comparison. Poni may be outperforming them so far this year, but all of these guys may also put up better numbers than him next year.
At 28, Poni’s probably already peaked as a player - he won’t be any more than a 50-point guy at best. He might be worth keeping, but I’d say a second rounder is a good price for a guy who’ll never be a first line forward. He’s producing well because the Leafs currently have no legitimate first line forward and Poni would be stuck on a second or third line on a better team.
I think you’re over-valuing Poni’s value here - I don’t think ANY team would give up a first for him. It just doesn’t make sense.
By Max Power
on Jan 13, 2009
The situation regarding Poni is an interesting one, mainly because I think this years trade deadline has the potential to be one of the busiest and also one of the best for those with assets to peddle. If it does indeed turn out to be a sellers market, the value of and return for a player who fits on a teams top two lines will be surprising–mainly because there will be so many clubs looking to upgrade and consequently bidding against one another. Poni may not use his size as effectively as other power forwards in the league, but he is far from soft. And at age 28, he still has room to improve. His size combined with a decent scoring touch is very attractive in the more physically intense post-season, where the smaller skill players are sometimes physically over-matched, become worn-down, and are non-factors. I do agree that packaging Poni with someone else (ie; his pal and linemate Antropov) could make sense in the right situation, but I also fear it might make him appear as the less-valuable “throw-in” piece of the deal, which he certainly is not–on the contrary, if Burke is patient and allows the offers to come to him, I think there will be no shortage of teams looking to do business, which will create an ideal situation for maximizing Poni’s value in a potential trade. I’m thinking at least a decent prospect and a draft pick, with the potential quality of the pick depending on the quality of the prospect also included in the deal.
By Mike
on Jan 13, 2009
Poni is a keeper..can’t believe I said that…most often after a Ponikarovsky goal I yell out nice shot, because he does have one and his Tomas Holmstrom type goals between his legs with his but in the crease were nice to see. My biggest gripe over Ponikarovsky is he didn’t go to the net enough. I cant say that this year he is provided a great screen on a couple of Kubina blasts. Poni is a goal and an assist better this year than Holmstrom granted in 8 more games but what would Poni do with Datsiuk and Zetteberg.And who would you rather have. The key thought to wether to keep him or trade him is to think of him as a 2 million, 20 goal, 2nd line winger. Once you think he is top line material he gets the inconsistent label. He is a solid 2nd line winger and there is nothing wrong with that.
By Dan
on Jan 13, 2009
Poni is a keeper because he’s in company with Brodeur, Elias, Miller, Modano, Ovechkin, Pronger, and Zetterburg as NHL players having their own websites. http://www.poni23.com/
Pretty good company if you ask me……..
By Steve
on Jan 13, 2009
Jason, your argument isn’t going to hold up to 5 seconds of analysis. It also ignores the point about pay scale.
While I concur that Tkachuk, Guerin, Hejduk, Tanguay, Gomez, and Demitra have higher “pedigree” based on past performance, I sincerely disagree when it comes to Dustin Brown, Ryan Smyth, Shawn Horcoff, Tomas Holmstrom, Travis Zajac, Jason Pominville, and Martin Erat.
Zajac is in his 3rd year, and had a solid rookie campaign, but his ppg and gpg averages declined last season as a sophmore. He has yet to show he can surpass his current totals, so I’m not sure the “pedigree” fits in his case. Yes he was a first rounder, and yes he’s 5 years younger, but he’s also playing way more minutes on a much younger club than Poni did 5 years ago.
Dustin Brown is in his 4th full season with the Kings, and his numbers have declined slightly from last years. He put up 33 goals and 60 points a year ago, and that’s likely about where he’ll plateau. He’s 4 years younger than Ponikarovsky, and he was taken 13th overall, but again, younger team, larger role, bigger salary.
Ryan Smyth in 14 years in the NHL AVERAGES 0.71 PPG, and 0.33 gpg. He hit the 60 point plateau at the age of 20, but he was also taken 6th overall and given a big role on a team at a very early stage in his career. His numbers declined drastically in his second and third years in the NHL, and then started to rise again. He’s had up and down years, but like I said… his averages are about where Poni is now… and he’s making about $4.5 million more a season.
Horcoff is a similar story to Smyth. Two great seasons where he was almost a point a game player, and then a bunch of middling seasons where he averages below half a point a game. He is also 2 years older than Poni, but when he was 28 he actually scored fewer goals and had fewer points per game… if that makes any difference to you.
Pominville burst onto the scene last year with the Sabres with 80 points in 82 games. This year he’s come back down a bit with .74 ppg and .29 gpg. Those numbers sit right around Poni’s, and yes he’s 2 years younger… but I don’t really think you can argue that Ponikarovsky has been given the SAME opportunities at the same time.
Holmstrom has had ONE season where he produced more than 0.7 ppg prior to this one, and now he’s at 0.80 ppg. Suddenly he has a higher pedigree? He’s a winner, I’ll grant you that, but he has put up far fewer points in the past than he is this year. He averages 0.52 ppg, and 0.24 gpg.
A lot of the point I am making is that Ponikarovsky produces with LESS ice time than all of the players I’m comparing him to aside from Kostitsyn and Holmstrom.
Poni AVERAGES 0.49 ppg, and 0.23 gpg for his career. Not far from Holmstrom’s numbers, and he is only beginning to hit his stride as an NHL first line regular.
Martin Erat has scored 20 or more goals twice in his career, and never had more than 25. He has never had over 57 points. He’s 27 years old. Those numbers remind me of Ponikarovsky frankly. But he’s making a hell of a lot more money.
I honestly don’t know how you can say he’s “plateaued” when his totals have risen in 4 of his 5 seasons in the NHL as a regular. He’s obviously playing decently and I don’t think it makes sense to dispute the fact that he’s doing it for a lot less money.
By Steve
on Jan 13, 2009
Oh and here’s a list of players that peaked at 28 or later:
Marty St Louis, Tomas Holmstrom, Johan Franzen, Pavel Datsyuk, Markus Naslund, Daniel Alfredsson, Doug Gilmour, Dave Andreychuck, Brian Rolston, Marc Savard, Vyacheslav Kozlov, Chris Drury, Daniel Briere, Ryan Malone, Niklas Hagman, Brenden Morrow, Kris Draper, Olli Jokinen, Bill Guerin.
Oh and I should probably point out that Bill Guerin didn’t break the 30 goal, 60 point plateau until he was 28 and playing for the Edmonton Oilers. He didn’t score 40 goals until he was 30, and he didn’t score above 0.66 points per game or 53 points before the age of 28.
Obviously the idea that Ponikarovsky can’t develop further as an NHL player is a bit silly.
By Jason Chen
on Jan 14, 2009
Zajac is playing a key role in the Devils’ offense this year. He is only in his third year, as opposed to Poni’s 5th full season. Zajac is on pace to shatter his previous highs and may very well end up with 60+ points, which Poni has yet to even come close to (but they may still end up with very similar point totals by year’s end). I would hardly call an 8 point difference a “decline” otherwise Sam Gagner might as well retire right now.
What Dustin Brown doesn’t do with his stick he does with his body. He’s a very young captain on a very young team and that should say something about his leadership ability. He’s a NHL leader in hits and a consistent physical force. Poni is not.
Ryan Smyth is overpaid for his ability, I’ll concede that point. However, that has already been widely accepted in the hockey world. When teams pay Smyth that price, they’re paying for grit, leadership, and a hard-nosed style of hockey that not many players in this league can play. Poni will NEVER land the Leafs two decent prospects AND a first rounder. Smyth, barring a Cup ring, has also won at almost every level of competition.
Horcoff isn’t too consistent, but since the lockout, his production has really outpaced Poni’s by quite a large margin. Horcoff - 212 GP, 174 points. Poni - 218 GP, 118 points. Tell me you don’t see the difference there. Even if you take out Horcoff’s last two seasons and compare production by age, I believe his production still exceeds Poni’s.
Pominville really surprised this everyone last year but he’s doing so-so this year - he’ll still end up with around 70 points. The entire Buffalo team has been just awful this year though, with Afinogenov disappearing and the only bright spot really being Vanek and he’s quite a one-dimensional offensive talent. Even when Pominville’s ice-time mirrors Poni’s current ice-time, which would be the 05-06 season, his rookie season, in which he tore up the AHL in the short time he was done there, he was still on pace for over 0.5 ppg. Pominville worked his way up the Buffalo depth charts and even if Poni was handed the same “opportunity” I’m not convinced he would do better. There’s no evidence that Poni can keep up his PPG average if he’s given 5 extra minutes a night. Poni’s production is much, much better in games where the Leafs beat their opponents by at least 3 goals. In games decided by at least one or two goals, his production isn’t very satisfying.
You said it, Holmstrom’s a winner. I’d pay more money for a proven winner than a guy who may or may not be better 2-3 years down the road. The price for a veteran leader with Cup experience sky rockets come playoff time. Why do you think such marginal players like Recchi, Weight, and Roberts get their names tossed around so much and have such great trade value?
Of course “peak” is relative terms, but I’ll play along. I’m sure there are many more players that have peaked after age 28 but also a very large number of players that didn’t do anything after age 28. There’s a flip-side to that coin. Here’s a list of players that peaked at ages 28-30 (or perhaps even younger), then really didn’t do much:
Todd Bertuzzi, Sergei Fedorov, Ed Jovanovski, Radek Bonk, Dan Cloutier, Jose Theodore, Martin Straka, Sergei Brylin, etc. The list kinda goes on. There are lots out there.
I actually find the idea that Poni will somehow land the Leafs, if traded, something higher than a second rounder, or that he will someday become an 80-point guy, a bit silly.
By Steve
on Jan 14, 2009
I don’t really know how one can argue that the player hasn’t shown he will “improve” if given greater opportunity. Since he has yet to be given that opportunity you aren’t really basing that on anything.
He plays marginal PP minutes, and he produces VERY well at even strength. In fact he produces more at even strength than pretty much 95% of the players in the NHL. So why exactly would you assume he wouldn’t produce more if given increased ice time and PP opportunities?
This is basically a complete refusal on your part to consider the fact that he is better than your estimations… cognitive dissonance strikes again!
By Jason Chen
on Jan 14, 2009
I’m sure Poni has the will to improve, but merely having the will doesn’t quite get you there. I’m questioning whether he CAN. I’m basing my argument on the fact that there is as much evidence to show that Poni is NOT worth more than a second rounder and/or NOT being able to reach your dreams of Poni being some sort of “elite” player or 80-point guy.
I am no professional scout, but I can say that I would trust Burke/Wilson/Fletcher/Maurice’s judgment than yours, and say that if neither of those guys are willing to give Poni those minutes, then obviously he’s not that calibre of player. On an average Leafs team he’s still only averaging second/third line minutes. Poni is averaging nowhere near top minutes for his team. Are you saying Wilson is completely wrong by not utilizing him more? He has done nothing specific to prove that he is better than the Browns, Smyths, Holmstroms, or even Horcoffs. He is a decent NHLer at best.
This is clearly a refusal on your part to consider the fact that he is not better than your estimations. There’s obviously a bias here - Canucks fans have been high on Schneider and I would say a good majority of them consider him a valuable trade chip, but he really just isn’t. Same thing with Ponikarovsky - he’s just not as valuable as some people make him out to be I would be completely shocked if the Leafs got anything better than a second rounder for him.
By Jason Chen
on Jan 14, 2009
Just to add, according to behindthenet.ca, Poni’s stats show him still to be merely decent, nothing abysmal, but nothing great either. On the PP, his production (0.49) ranks 5th on the PP amongst those that have played at least 30 games, just slight ahead of Grabovski (0.47) but a good distance away from Dominic Moore (0.74)
Even strength-wise, I didn’t count how many bars he was down, but a rough estimate of being in the top 100. Again, nothing great, but nothing really bad either.
By Steve
on Jan 14, 2009
Following the logic of “NHL coaches/management must always be right” or at least more right than other people… implies that they never make mistakes by limiting a player’s role on a franchise.
I’m not sure if Niklas Hagman’s improved offense this season is related to a more offensive role on the Leafs than he had in Dallas but I’m willing to bet that the arguments against using him on the top line in Dallas relate to who was playing ahead of him.
Mike Ribeiro of course had something to do with that, but he wasn’t getting quite the same opportunities in Montreal than he’s gotten in Dallas.
Grabovski would be another player who is doing well in increased minutes with his new team.
Michael Ryder would be another good example of a player who suffered under a reduced role last season, who is obviously playing QUITE well with his new club under his OLD coach in Claude Julien for Boston.
Alex Tanguay was well over a point per game player with Colorado playing alongside Forsberg and Hejduk… now he’s a peer of Ponikarovsky’s while he gets 2nd line minutes for Montreal.
As for the Behind The Net Ratings… according to those, Jason Blake is AMAZING on the PP… and the next two best forwards on the PP for the Leafs are John Mitchell and Jeremy Williams. Does that mean they should be the Leafs top PP unit?
Oh and if we’re comparing Ponikarovsky to other players… and since we’re mentioning Vancouver… why don’t we bring in the fact that he has a higher rating than the Sedin twins? Daniel has a 0.26 and Henrik is a 0.21. Would you say Ponikarovsky is superior to them?
Oh and as for the Even-Strength ratings on Behind The Net… Pavel Datsyuk is right beside Ian White… I guess they’re similar players?
By Jason Chen
on Jan 14, 2009
Who says anything about never making a mistake? I don’t think when I said “I trust their judgment better than yours” meant that they never make a mistake and the blogging fan is always right. But let’s face it, in the hockey world, what Wilson says has stock, even if it’s wrong clearly wrong, because he’s part of the pro hockey sphere. He has a much better feel and idea what players are like better than we do.
It’s quite obvious that we’ll never agree on Poni’s value or worth, so let’s drop that. Whether he can seize the opportunities or blow it depends on opinion. I’m saying that even if he does he’ll never reach the 80-point plateau or garner some “elite” title. I think he’s not talented enough to play that role. The players that you pulled out I have shown are playing a) major roles on their teams, or b) better than Poni.
You’re not looking at all the stats. You can’t look at just one category and decide a player’s value. If you look at quality of competition, Dan and Henrik draw the opposing team’s top pairing all the time. Poni doesn’t, I checked. His quality of competition is much, much lower than the Sedins. And no, Poni’s not superior to THEM twins, although INDIVIDUALLY I think you may have a case, but that’s a whole other ballgame.
Again, when looking at those stats you can’t compare defensemen and forwards, they patrol different areas of the ice and play significantly different goals. There’s just no comparable between forwards and defensemen. Same goes for the Datsyuk-White comparison - you’ll see clearly that Datsyuk trounces White in every other stat. You have to look at the big picture.
By Steve
on Apr 29, 2009
In re-reading the original posting I do find it a tad odd that you’re arguing that I’m not looking at “all the stats”. I quoted points, plus-minus, minutes played at ES and on the PP, his consistency of production, just for starters.
That somehow leads to the conclusion I’m looking at “one category”… not sure how.
In the end Ponikarovsky ended up with 23 goals, and 61 points along with a +6 rating.
His offensive numbers match up very well over the past few years with Erik Cole, Brad Richards, and Chris Kunitz. I think it should be obvious he’s played with inferior players, and less minutes than those three. If you want to discuss the quality of competition, that is fair.
That being said I think it’s a distortion of reality to pretend that his +/- number isn’t a hugely positive reflection of his defensive abilities considering the team he has played on for the past few years, and the quality level of his team-mates.