One Of These Clubs Is Doing It’s Own Thing
January 6th, 2009 by SteveOk… I liked to watch Sesame Street as a child, and that’s about as close as I’ll ever get to using it in a headline. That is unless I can somehow manage to fit in something comparing Burke or Wilson to Oscar the Grouch; only time will tell.
The reason I used the title has more to do with something I read in Howard Berger’s blog yesterday (*for the record I never said I was boycotting Howard’s blog… I find it far too entertaining to pick apart his viewpoints to ever ignore him).
…”that notion conflicts with the established method of building a contending team in the post-lockout NHL. The Boston Bruins, Washington Capitals, Chicago Blackhawks, Philadelphia Flyers and Pittsburgh Penguins [though struggling at the moment] have all recently ascended from the depths by drafting at least two players of world-class ability. The Detroit Red Wings have been stockpiling such assets – mostly via Europe – for more than a decade. And, there is no better un-drafted youngster on earth right now than John Tavares. Sadly for Burke, the Leafs unwittingly destroyed just about any chance of landing the Oshawa wunderkind before he assumed the reigns from Fletcher in late-November. So, what does double-B do now?”…
- Howard Berger
So apparently the established method of building a contending team in the post-lockout NHL is to draft at least two players of world-class ability. Really? Two? Has Howard even seen the rosters of those teams? Try 4-5 players Howie. Oh, and they weren’t all drafted, and the clubs didn’t all ply those deals post-lockout.
To quote another Howard… Cossell: Let’s go to the video-tape, or in this case, the info on those teams top draft picks currently playing on the team:
Boston Bruins
David Krejci - 2nd round pick, 63rd overall, 2004 entry draft - 14G, 27A, 41 points, +21
Phil Kessel - 1st round pick, 5th overall, 2006 entry draft - 24G, 16A, 40 points, +16
Milan Lucic - 2nd round pick, 50th overall, 2006 entry draft - 11G, 15A, 26 points, +16, 80 PIMs, 151 hits
Blake Wheeler - 1st round pick, 5th overall, 2004 entry draft (PHX pick) - signed as a UFA out of NCAA - 13G, 11A, 24 points, +22
Patrice Bergeron - 2nd round pick, 45th overall, 2003 entry draft - 4G, 14A, 28 points, +1
Team oddity: None of their top D men, or goaltenders, were drafted by the Bruins. They signed them all as UFA’s. How did they make their major improvements? Team D and goaltending.
Washington Capitals
Alexander Ovechkin - 1st round pick, 1st overall, 2004 entry draft - 27G, 26A, 53 points, +12, 132 hits
Nicklas Backstrom - 1st round, 4th overall, 2006 entry draft - 11G, 33A, 44 points, +6
Alexander Semin - 1st round, 13th overall, 2002 entry draft - 14G, 19A, 33 points, +20
Mike Green - 1st round, 29th overall, 2004 entry draft - 10G, 16A, 26 points, +14, 8 ppg
Team oddity: Again… lack of goaltending from within. Simeon Varlamov might change all of that in the future, but they’re relying on Brent Johnson and Jose Theodore at this point.
Chicago Blackhawks
Patrick Kane - 1st round, 1st overall, 2007 entry draft - 16G, 25A, 41 points, +5
Jonathan Toews - 1st round, 3rd overall, 2006 entry draft - 9G, 20A, 29 points, +5
Andrew Ladd - 1st round, 4th overall, 2004 entry draft (CAR pick) - 8G, 17A, 25 points, +17
Dave Bolland - 2nd round, 32nd overall, 2004 entry draft - 7G, 14A, 21 points, +10
Duncan Keith - 2nd round, 54th overall, 2002 entry draft - 5G, 16A, 21 points, +20
Cam Barker - 1st round, 3rd overall, 2004 entry draft - 3G, 14A, 17 points, -4,
Brent Seabrook - 1st round, 14th overall, 2003 entry draft - 4G, 7A, 11 points, +14, 92 hits
Team oddity: 3 of the team’s top 4 scorers were actually drafted by other clubs, and obtained through trades or as free agents (Patrick Sharp, Kris Versteeg, Martin Havlat). So was their top scoring D man, Brian Campbell. Goaltending is again an area manned by older free agent signings in Khabibulin, and Huet.
Philadelphia Flyers
Jeff Carter - 1st round, 11th overall, 2003 entry draft - 27G, 16A, 43 points, +7, 8 ppg, 4 shg
Mike Richards - 1st round, 24th overall, 2003 entry draft - 15G, 27A, 42 points, +16, 4 shg, 74 hits
Simon Gagne - 1st round, 22nd overall, 1998 entry draft - 18G, 22A, 40 points, +18, 4 shg
Team oddity: On this list they don’t really fit very well… they’ve only got 2 recent high draft picks that contribute. Other than Gagne, pretty much every major contributor on the team was drafted by another organization. Carter and Richards are great, but they were both taken in 2003… somehow I don’t think the “plan” in Philly revolved around one draft year? Or maybe there was no plan - the two players were taken 11th and 24th overall each… nobody was asking the team to tank so they could land the 11th and 24th overall picks in 2003 were they?
Pittsburgh Penguins
Evgeni Malkin - 1st round, 2nd overall, 2004 entry draft - 15G, 45A, 60 points, +14
Sidney Crosby - 1st round, 1st overall, 2005 entry draft - 15G, 35A, 50 points, +5
Jordan Staal - 1st round, 2nd overall, 2006 entry draft - 11G, 10A, 21 points, -5
Ryan Whitney - 1st round, 5th overall, 2002 entry draft - 0G, 1A, 1 point, -6
Alex Goligoski - 2nd round, 61st overall, 2004 entry draft - 6G, 13A, 19 points, +7
Kris Letang - 3rd round, 62nd overall, 2005 entry draft - 1G, 12A, 13 points, -6
Brooks Orpik - 1st round, 8th overall, 2000 entry draft - 2G, 7A, 9 points, -4, 141 hits, 81 blocked shots
Marc-Andre Fleury - 1st round, 1st overall, 2003 entry draft - 11-9-2, 3.01GAA, .902 SV%
Team oddity: They’re playing like crap. They roared into the post season last year and played like potential champs, but they’ve fallen off the tracks early this year, despite having the top two scorers in the NHL in Malkin and Crosby. Losing Whitney, Gonchar, and Fleury early on may have caused most of the problems, and counting on an aging supporting cast of scoring wingers may also pose an issue. Depth down the middle, on the blue line, and in net though should make them contenders for a while if they can hold it together.
Detroit Red Wings
I’m not exploring the depth of the Red Wings and their drafting in this blog. Everyone knows the Red Wings are draft geniuses for grabbing Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Lidstrom, Kronwall, Franzen, Hudler, Holmstrom, etc. in the later rounds. The part that blows my mind is that any moron (read Berger) would ever trot the Wings draft record out as an excuse to implode the Leafs’ season and shoot for the first pick overall.
The only lesson one should take from the Detroit draft record is to have as many trust worthy eyes and ears scouting around the edges of leagues across Europe. Tanking has absolutely zero to do with what they’ve done, and in fact is the complete ANTITHESIS of what they’ve done. They did not get great by tanking to get Fedorov and Yzerman… I mean sure it helped… but it took em a damn long time to realize any success that way didn’t it? It also has nothing to do with their recent drafting success.
This brings me to the final team in my “analysis”… the local boys in blue:
Toronto Maple Leafs
Nik Antropov - 1st round, 10th overall, 1998 entry draft - 13G, 17A, 30 points, -7
Matt Stajan - 2nd round, 57th overall, 2002 entry draft - 9G, 21A, 30 points, -7
Nikolai Kulemin - 2nd round, 44th overall, 2006 entry draft - 7G, 7A, 14 points, -5
Luke Schenn - 1st round, 5th overall, 2008 entry draft - 0G, 2A, 2 points, -6, 83 hits, 41 blocked shots
Jiri Tlusty - 1st round, 13th overall, 2006 entry draft - 0 points in 10 GP, -2
So what can we take out of all this? Well… first of all… the whole “post lockout” pattern of success is a bit all over the map from a timeline perspective. Consider the spread on the various teams mentioned.
All of Boston’s top draft picks were taken since 2003, with four of those top 5 players taken in 2004, and 2006 respectively. Washington is basically in the same boat, with Semin being the lone player to predate 2004 in their top group. Chicago has 5 players at the top end that were taken since 2004 in the first or second round. The other thing all three teams have in common is a complete lack of top end goaltending inside their system. Boston, Washington, and Chicago all went out and signed high priced free agent netminders… to the tune of $5.4 million, $5.3 million, $11.4 million respectively. Those three “success stories” seem to have followed the pattern Howard is referring to. Of course you then have to include the fact that all 3 clubs have added high priced free agents in the form of Brian Campbell, Zdeno Chara, Michael Nylander, Marc Savard, Martin Havlat, etc. The teams didn’t suddenly turn into winning programs BEFORE those guys were added… as is often assumed. Most of the top free agents were brought in WHILE the club developed it’s youth.
Philadelphia’s famed turn around had virtually nothing to do with drafting. It peeves the crap out of me how everyone insists the Leafs should “imitate” Philly and shoot for the top of the draft table. Philadelphia never did that… they had one really crap year - that those high picks were a part of… a lot of the high picks they drafted have since been traded away. They brought in extremely expensive free agents like Daniel Briere, Peter Forsberg, and Kimmo Timonen. They have never really found stability in net, but Biron and Nittymaki have stemmed the tide recently. The “centre pieces” of their resurgence, Carter, Richards, and Gagne are a unique instance in idiot’s luck. Gagne was drafted 10 years ago… he’s been through the glory and the dregs of recent Flyers history. Carter and Richards were taken in the same draft, and neither one was touted as the top pick IN that draft. This case of serendipity has no resemblance to anything fans and media regularly trot out as an excuse to tank this season.
Pittsburgh is also unique. Of all the turn around clubs mentioned above, they have the most recent playoff success, and they are currently the worst of those listed. They were drafting near the front of the line for 7 seasons. They also added high priced talent before the turn around in Gonchar, Sykora, and last season they brought in Hossa. Trading away recent talent for Hossa may have broken the team to an extent long term. They will have a hard time keeping slots filled as they increase the salary of their top players, and without an infusion of youth, they’ll have to try to stave off the fate of teams like the Tampa Bay Lightning and more recently the Ottawa Senators. Unlike the other clubs, they spread their talent around more evenly, drafting skilled forwards, Top D men, and a number 1 goaltender. Their extended pause at the bottom of the standings inevitably landed them some talent… and should maintain their fortunes if they can keep everyone happy and in the fold.
So where does this leave the Leafs? Well obviously there’s a huge gap in their top draft history. From 2002 to 2006, the Leafs don’t have a single top pick that’s doing anything in their development system. If you’ll notice, of the players I’ve listed (32 of them) fully half of them… 16… were drafted during that stretch. Only 7 of them were drafted before 2002, and 2 of those are on the Leafs. Of the remaining 9 taken in 2006 or later, the Leafs have 3, and only 2 of those are playing in the NHL right now. Obviously the majority of producers on the top “drafting” clubs were taken during that 4 year stretch. Trading away “top” draft picks in an effort to find the right solution was not a great idea.
The other obvious conjecture one can make is, there is NO obvious reason to tank JUST for the sake of tanking. Of the top players listed, the vast majority were first rounders (23 of them), but 12 of those were taken with the 5th pick or later. The closer one gets to the top, the better the chances of being a game breaker - 8 of the picks were top 2… but that goes without saying. Pittsburgh, the team with the most first and 2nd overall picks also has the worst record of the group… and the most problems forthcoming in salary management.
If I was Brian Burke, I’d try to get as many first rounders as possible, and worry a lot less about WHERE in the first round they’re located. This is a deep draft, and obviously Burke is aware of that. It would be nice if some of the media recognized it and ignored the clarion call for John Tavares.
Posted in Player Analysis, Prospects, Stat Analysis
13 Responses to “One Of These Clubs Is Doing It’s Own Thing”
By eyebleaf
on Jan 6, 2009
Great post, Steve.
By Starved
on Jan 6, 2009
Great post. Looking at teams like Anaheim and Philly on one hand and Tampa and Pittsburgh on the other, one thing I’ve been wondering is if it isn’t more advantageous to build around high end players such as Carter, Richards, Getzlaf or Perry than super stars such as Lecavalier, Crosby or Malkin.
Obviously you get into problems of definitions, but for ease of discussion, say top 5 draft pick versus the rest of the first round.
The thing is, Crosby or Lecavalier will cost you pretty much the max against the cap. Carter or Getlaf may never win the Hart, but both will cost far less and will therefore be much easier to build around.
So bottom line, I’m not convinced the Leafs won’t be better off long term without Tavares. A greater quantity of high end, but not top end, players may be the best way to compete effectively under the cap.
Of course, at least Tampa won their one cup and Pittsburgh may still have their dynasty, but I can’t help thinking Detroit with Datsyuk and Zetterberg fits the bill quite nicely.
By Katshockey
on Jan 6, 2009
Great stuff .. totally agree, it doesn’t matter where you draft, it’s how you draft (and especially develop).
By Gerald Norton
on Jan 6, 2009
The key is 2 things, young talent and what they deliver on the ice, and young talent, and what they don’t deliver to the cap, allowing the team to buy more talent.
The downfall, as is now being suffered by Ottawa, is choosing what talent to keep, and then building a team around the new inflated salary structure.
Detroit will hit this next year, and it may be further compounded by a stricter internal budget. Next on the cash crunch comes Pittsburgh, and I suspect Staal is either available, or soon to be, if things don’t rapidly turn, with him playing a key roll.
Great blog.
By TeddyDupuis
on Jan 6, 2009
haha, Steve that’s awesome. Some ones got to keep those guys accountable. Berger, Cox, and those of their ilk arejust bitter people who think they are part of the game in some odd way.
Another thing that ticks me off is journalists’ actually believe that they should tank the season. Completely ignorant of the fact that this NEVER crosses the players or coaches minds. They’re are athletes, all they do is try to win, always. It’s actually distgustinhg that the journalists’ think we should tank. As much as placing 9th sucks, the Leafs have always worked hard enough to play above their skill level.
By Doug
on Jan 6, 2009
Good article Steve. Some teams have been quietly stockpiling lottery picks since the lock out. I guess they saw the writing on the wall. I do agree that management ultimately does require a strategy to be able to pay this high priced talent. Ottawa was squeezed badly by the first cap level. They made a significant error by letting Chara go. Detroit is an excellent example of how to maintain a deep and talented base of players and prospects. However, they had a very strong team in place before they got on their roll of adding at least one strong prospect virtually every year. Their core 7 players you mentioned above were drafted by the wings over a ten year period. At that rate, I don’t need to mention how long it would take to build a contending team from scratch. Lidstrom was drafted in 1989. The next player in that group (Holmstrom) was drafted in 1994, and so on up to 2004. I think it is important to first have a strong team in place then keep the development system going strong after that; like Detroit does. The other teams you’ve mentioned seem to be doing the right things to build a strong core of players in a relatively short period of time.
By Dan
on Jan 7, 2009
One must not forget that the landscape of the NHL continues to change. Pre lockout, the Leafs spent 70+ million, the cap was reduced to 42 million and has now ballooned to 54 million. The Leafs had to cut a ton of payroll and re-evaluate how to run a ‘new NHL’ franchise. Now, again, we are going to see a drop in the cap, and a lot of teams are going to have to shed salary to get under the cap. This time, the Leafs will be in a position to be buyers, which will hopefully help their turn around. There are trades to be won because GM’s around the league are realizing that those long term contracts for ‘core’ players are going to make it diffucult to win in a recession/depression based NHL…
Should make for an interesting off season.
By Gerald Norton
on Jan 7, 2009
Burke begins the re-build…by trading a pick away for a 37 year old buddy.
Is this why he wanted autonomy?
If I was a Leaf fan, I’d be pissed, and a little bit worried about what this ego maniac has in mind.
By Gerald Norton
on Jan 7, 2009
That now makes the Leafs without their 2010 2nd, 4th and 6th picks…what the hell?
Am I missing something here?
By Doug
on Jan 7, 2009
You’re right Gerald they should be stock piling picks and prospects. not getting rid of them.
By Cunhell69
on Jan 7, 2009
Gerald “Am I missing something here?”, Yes……CONDITIONAL look it up. He makes the Leafs tougher this year and retires. Keeps opposing players from running the younger Leafs and stops our rookie d-man from doing the fighting. Conditional could mean it cost BB nothing.
By Steve
on Jan 7, 2009
We have no idea what the conditions are at this point, and postulating that Burke somehow got away with a trade of May for nothing is a bit premature.
Right now, it’s May for a 6th round pick in 2010. If we found out later that it’s NOT a pick in 2010, then great. Otherwise, let’s not just treat everything with Kid Gloves.
By d.e.b.
on Feb 2, 2009
burke did a solid job in vancouver until colorado showed them how much they overrated themselves. yes they were good but not great crawford, bertuzzi and especially naslund cost burke his job in vancouver . burke bailed out of hartford was fired in vancouver bailed out of anahiem leaving what will likely become a quagmeyer due to his
burke does not have a great drafting record other than pronger in hartford not much success at all no the sisters are not elite they are good but not superior players.expect the same old same old in toronto for the next few years. not bashing leafs or burke just an opinion .