No offense or no goaltending?
November 5th, 2008 by David JohnsonIn Steve’s absense I figured it would be a good time to step up and write a post about the Leafs. The Leafs are 13 games into the season and are seeing modest success with a 5-4-4 record and are in the middle of the pack in the eastern conference where, to be honest, almost every team is a middle of the pack team.
Going into the season everyone assumed the Leafs would be a team devoid of offensive ability. In the pre-season and early in the season that seemed to be the case but not any more. Over the last 8 games they have scored an average of 3.6 goals a game on an average of 38.75 shots a game and have scored 4 or more goals in each of the last 4 games inlcuding 5 goals each against the Rangers and Devils, both solid defensive teams.
Despite this offense, the Leafs have a just a 2-1-2 record in games they have scored 4 or more goals this season and one of those wins came in the shootout. In these 5 games the Leafs have given up a respectable 26 shots per game but have given up 4.2 goals per game resulting from a dismal (and that is being generous) 0.838 save percentage. With better goaltending the Leafs could have easily had another win or two.
The Leafs are suffering the same problem they have suffered in each of the past three seasons. Mediocre goaltending. As a team they have the fourth worst save percentage in the league at 0.880 ahead of only Nashville, Colorado and Dallas. One could blame the coach, except that Ron WIlson is supposed to be a defensive coach. One could blame the defensemen except that at least half the the defense has changed. Additionally, in limited action in Colorado so far Andrew Raycroft has a horrible 0.839 save percentage far worse than his save percentage in Toronto last year so it is not like one could argue that the Leafs are just a bad defensive team and elsewhere a goalie would perform better.
Last year the Leafs had the second worst save percentage in the league at 0.893 and Vesa Toskala had an barely mediocre 0.904 save percentage. This season Toskala has been far worse with a 0.887 save percentage. There are a lot of people who believe that Toskala is a very good goalie, some even think he is a great goalie, but the numbers don’t back that up. He appears to be a mediocre goalie at best.
I think people get the misconception that Toskala is a great goalie because he makes some great saves from time to time and rarely gives up the real stinker goals that he obviously should have had. Where Toskala falters is he just doesn’t stop enough shots. He is a small goalie at 5′10″ so maybe he just doesn’t cover as much net as some of the great goalies (Brodeur is 6′2″, Luongo is 6′3″, Lundqvist is 6′1″, etc.) but for whatever reason, he just doesn’t stop enough shots.
People have asked whether the Leafs should trade Toskala if someone put in an offer for him. Based on on what I wrote above, the answer to that question is absolutely yes. But I would definitely be cautious about trading Toskala too soon. As mentioned above, Toskala is a steady goalie who rarely gives up bad goals and I believe that is good for a young team. When goalies give up bad goals the team in front of them loses confidence and wonders why they work their butts off when a goalie just goes and gives up bad goals because of lack of concentration or whatever. Goalies who give up bad goals are demoralizing for their team and with a young rebuilding team like the Leafs, that could be disastrous for the development of their players. In particular I am worried about young Luke Schenn who has been good so far but still has a long way to develop to become the stud defensemen Leaf management and fans hope he will become. Putting him in the wrong situation with a sub par goalie who gives up bad goals could be bad for Schenn’s development. Toskala is not a bad goalie, just not a good one. Curtis Joseph at this point in his career is a bad goalie and Justin Pogge has not yet done enough to show me that he is ready to be a good, or even average, goalie at the NHL level.
I think the time will come when the Leafs will need to deal Vesa Toskala as he is not the goalie of the future for the Leafs. The timing of such a move will be critical though. The young team in front of Toskala needs to develop confidence themselves before we move Toskala.
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13 Responses to “No offense or no goaltending?”
By eyebleaf
on Nov 5, 2008
I would argue until I’m blue in the face that a .904 save percentage is by no means “barely mediocre.” It’s pretty damn impressive, especially considering how this Leafs team plays in it’s own end.
I’m not as sour on Toskala as you are - he’s not a mediocre goalie - but I would agree that he definitely needs to be better.
By David Johnson
on Nov 5, 2008
That is a common comment but it is simply not valid.
1. Toskala’s .904 save % was good for 32nd in the NHL last year.
2. Under a significantly different defense and team he is no better, in fact worse. Raycroft hasn’t shown any improvements changing teams either. In both cases it refutes your claim that the Leafs defense was horrible last year as opposed to the goaltending.
3. In San Jose the year before, a good defensive team, he had a .908 save percentage which was good for just 20th in the league.
4. His save percentage last year was below that of Kari Lehtonen (Atlanta), Jason Labarbera (Los Angeles), Manny Legace (St. Louis) who arguably played behind much worse defenses.
Toskala may be the 20th best starter in the NHL though if I thought about it I could probably argue could be lower than that.
By Steve
on Nov 5, 2008
I have to agree with David on this one. The problem many Leafs fans have in analyzing goaltending (especially the goalies in the crowd - you know who you are!) is they compare NHL goalies to all-around goalies from every level. Sure Toskala is a good goalie, he’s playing as a starter in the NHL. He’s probably better than 99% of the goalies on the planet. But that’s irrelevant in this discussion.
We’re not comparing Toskala to every goalie on the planet, we’re comparing him to the goalies in the NHL… and as far as the NHL and goaltending are concerned, Toskala has been “average” at best over the past few years. He has the ability to go through amazing stretches of shut down play, but his consistency is lacking, and he’ll go through just as frustrating stretches of mediocre to atrocious play.
Arguing that the numbers don’t tell the entire truth is fine, but it’s pretty hard to refute that goalies on WORSE teams, that have WORSE defenses in front of them, have BETTER numbers when it comes down to it.
I’ve written on this blog many times that Toskala needs to finish up with a .910 or better save percentage this season for the Leafs to be “competitive”. I’ve also written that I think this Leafs squad is capable of scoring 220 goals. So far I’m half right, but the half of me that’s right doesn’t seem to be the half most people would be expecting.
Right now, the Leafs are on pace to score 239.44 goals this season. I don’t expect that to continue, but I’m not as shocked as many analysts seem to be. Hell accoring to Damien Cox, I should be down in Vegas based on my ability to predict the Leafs offensive abilities.
Grabovski is the only player on pace for a 30 goal season, but after him you’ve got Antropov and Hagman on pace for 27 goals apiece, and Ponikarovsky, Stajan, and Moore all on pace for 20 or so. The Leafs might not be chock full of All-Stars, but they have enough horses to get the job done on the offensive side of things.
Goaltending is still their major problem, and I don’t really think you’d get much for Toskala right now… despite what Leafs fans believe.
By koopa kid
on Nov 5, 2008
“I would argue until I’m blue in the face that a .904 save percentage is by no means “barely mediocre.” It’s pretty damn impressive, especially considering how this Leafs team plays in it’s own end.”
But how much longer can we excuse our goalies based on the guys in front of them? If we can agree that we probably have the best dcorps on the team since the lockout, and a coach much better suited to coaching said defense, then how is it that the numbers are staying the same? Even our forwards corps has been revamped with an eye towards responsibility.
I think it’s too early in the season to get on Toskala’s back, he took until late December to get into his groove last year and once again there’s a bunch of new guys and a new/old system in front of him. But our goaltending is worrying right now.
The coming months are going to be make or break for Toskala and the Leafs. If, by January, his numbers are still trending the same then we’ve got some problems, ones I don’t think we can blame on talent, learning, or process. Toskala had every opportunity to only let in 3 or two goals last night. If we get our shit together we’re golden.
By Steve
on Nov 5, 2008
Ok so since I had a bit of down time I did a tiny little analysis of the starting goalies in the NHL. Basically I compared average shots against for each franchise to the save percentage for their top starting goalie. I then graphed the two values against eachother and added a linear trend line of best fit. Using this method, the “average” performance indicated by save percentage should improve as the number of shots faced goes up.
At this point Toskala is pretty far below the “average” line.
The most “average” goalies (i.e. those closest to the trend line) are Cam Ward, Manny Legace, Jason LaBarbera, and Roberto Luongo.
Toskala would need to have an .894 save percentage to be AT the trend line (or be “average” using this analysis). Since he’s sitting at an .887 at this point, he’s been sub-par for NHL starting netminders.
By eyebleaf
on Nov 5, 2008
A .900 save percentage is quality NHL caliber goaltending. It may not be high enough for you guys, but to say that it is “barely mediocre” is, in the words of Bob McCowan, “poppycock.”
Again, I’m not defending Toskala’s play this season. He’s been inconsistent. But it’s a team game. I don’t know, maybe Cujo and Eddie really spoiled you guys when it comes to goaltending and save percentage in this town, but Wilson will be the first to tell you that this team just isn’t that good in its own end. Half the time they’re screening Toskala and he can’t see a damn thing.
Perhaps I take this Toskala bashage to heart because I’m a goalie. I don’t know.
Do we need to hug it out?
By David Johnson
on Nov 5, 2008
A .900 save percentage is quality NHL caliber goaltending.
Poppycock. Of the 44 goalies who had enough games to qualify, only 7 had a sub .900 save percentage. That is not good.
Let me be clear. Toskala is an NHL caliber goalie, just one of the lower quality NHL starters in the league. I don’t believe he is good enough to win a Stanley Cup, except maybe on a stacked team like the Red Wings, and I believe he, and Raycroft, was the main reason the Leafs missed the playoffs last year (and the year before in Raycrofts case). With good goaltending (i.e. a goalie ranked in the top 10 or maybe even top 15 in the league) the Leafs would have made the playoffs in any of the past 3 seasons.
By puckbuddy
on Nov 6, 2008
I think the point he was trying to convey is that anything over .900 is NHL caliber save percentage and the higher up the .900 you go the better. Toskala is a good goalie that has slow starts, like many goalies and with a team like the young Leafs learning to play together for the first time, you would expect them to hinder the stats of the goalie.
By Steve
on Nov 6, 2008
He said “quality NHL caliber” not “NHL caliber”.
My not so robust analysis of the numbers indicates that for the number of shots Toskala is facing, an AVERAGE level of NHL goaltending would be an .894 save percentage.
He’s sitting at .887 - so he’s not putting up “quality” numbers either way.
I would agree that a .900 or better save percentage is pretty decent, but basically in Toskala’s case this isn’t a situation where the Leafs (or by extension their fans) should be happy just because we like Toskala and the newspapers keep telling us how “unflappable” he is.
As for Wilson thinking Toskala isn’t responsible at all, then this quote might lay that idea to rest:
Yes he thinks they’ve been porous defensively, but Toskala needs to step up too.
By David Johnson
on Nov 6, 2008
Realistically, I think you want a goalie capable of a .915 save percentage and I think if you look back most goalies that win Stanley Cups are that good. Here are recent goalies regular season and playoff save percentages.
2007-08 Osgood .914, .930
2006-07 Giguere .918, .922
2005-06 Ward .882, .920
2003-04 Khabibulin .910, .933
Before Khabibulin you have Brodeur, Hasek, Roy, etc.
Any goalie can get hot and with some luck take a team deep into the Stanley Cup playoffs (see Ward) but generally you need a top tier goalie to win a Stanley Cup. Toskala is not that guy. He has not proven himself to be anything but an average at best NHL goalie. Goaltending is the most important position in hockey and he isn’t the building block the Leafs need here which makes him more than expendable.
With a top tier goalie, the Leafs likely make the playoffs. With a top tier goalie and an elite centerman and a bit more development from some youngsters and they could be contenders to go deep in the playoffs, particularly in the weak eastern conference.
But so long as the Leafs (or any team for that matter) have average goaltending they have zero chance at achieving much success.
I guess my main point is that I just don’t think many fans realize how average (or at times well below average) the Leafs goaltending has been. Everyone blames the defense or lack of scoring (which is a myth since they have been in the top half of the league in scoring if not top 10 in recent years) but in reality the Leafs #1 problem has been goaltending. JFJ tried to fix it twice but failed miserably with Raycroft and only had modest success with Toskala. I hope the current management team realizes that goaltending is key and will make it a top priority over the next year.
By Steve
on Nov 7, 2008
I think the problem on that front is what it takes to obtain a top flight goaltender.
There are only so many top netminders in the NHL, and once a team has one, they are very unlikely to deal him unless he becomes unhappy with his surroundings (see Luongo, Roberto).
Last year the Ducks put Ilya Bryzgalov on waivers, and the Leafs did not do much to inquire about his services to my knowledge.
Obviously a goalie like Mike Smith was available on the open market, though it took a Brad Richards to obtain him.
I think the Leafs should be scoping out younger talents, and back ups that are pushing for starters minutes in an effort to find out who the next best thing will be in the net minding… heck it’s what they did with Toskala. But as you say, I don’t think they’ve gotten their guy just yet.
By David Johnson
on Nov 7, 2008
Most of the top NHL goalie are locked up on long term contracts (though if you are dreaming Luongo’s contract ends after next season). But there are some young goalies that are coming up that may be available via trade that I would take a chance on over Toskala because I don’t think Toskala is a long term answer.
Columbus has Steve Mason who has good potential. Maybe you could pry him away from Columbus or maybe even Pascal Leclaire if they are looking to cut costs and believe Mason is ready.
If the Cancucks hold on to Luongo, they don’t need young Cory Schneider. Go and try and make a trade for him.
I’d even take a chance on Ray Emery next season. If he gets his head on straight he could be a pretty good goalie and I believe he is playing well in Russia after a slow start.
By JH
on Nov 10, 2008
The Leafs are surprising everybody this season. Majority of the people thought they would be at the bottom of the league, but this team is raising eyebrows.
I think this success is the worst thing for the Leafs. THey will be a crappy team in the league for years to come. my thoughts. http://jib-sports-culture.blogspot.com/2008/11/problems-leafs-will-face.html