Toronto Maple Leafs

Playing Down Expectations

Cliff Fletcher is tempering expectations for his club’s offensive output in the coming season.  Apparently, he wants us to think the Leafs have nothing but 3rd and 4th liners on offense, with no hope of a productive top-line, or even a decent second option.

“If you look at our club, we really have only one player you can consider a top-six forward, and that’s [Nik] Antropov,” said Fletcher. “We have a couple others [including Alexei Ponikarovsky] that are on the fringe of the top-six, but no one else.”

Frankly, the comment is disingenuous.  Ironically though, it plays right into the expectations and evaluations of the vast majority of the Toronto Sports Media throng.  The Leafs suck they say, the Leafs will be playing for last place.  The Leafs will be trotting out has beens and also-rans who have no chance of decent production.

I do realise that many will paint me with the brush of overly optimistic, and potentially delusional Leaf booster for this but, I would contend that the Leafs actually posess 4 if not 5 options who are legitimate top 6 forwards in the NHL.  Lets look at some numbers to see if they bear that out.

Nik Antropov - I recently posted about Antropov, and how his production last season was comparable to players such as Vrbata, Erat, Dumont, Hemsky,  and Perry.  Obviously with players of that ilk to compare him to, we should all reasonably agree with Fletcher that Antropov is capable of top 6 production.

Alexei Ponikarovsky - Alexei has had up and down seasons recently, which has led to him being promoted as a future top line player at one moment, and then demoted to 3rd line minutes the next.  Lets examine his output over his past 3 seasons and try to figure out where he fits into the rest of the NHL.

If we compare these numbers to other players in the NHL, here are some interesting things that crop up: His even strength point total of 34 points in 06-07 put him on par with players like Jason Arnott, Marion Gaborik, Steve Sullivan, Brad Boyes, Pierre Marc Bouchard, Markus Naslund, Rick Nash, Mike Ribiero, and Shane Doan.

In 07-08, he produced 28 points at even strength, which puts him on par with Scott Hartnell, Valtteri Filppula, Saku Koivu, Chris Drury, and many others.

Obviously Ponikarovsky’s production at even strength is quite reasonable… and would put him in top line category on many teams.  What he seems to suffer from is a lack of production on the Power Play.

In fact, that may be more than a bit related to a lack of opportunity.  His time on the power play last season was  comparable to Jochen Hecht, Mike Sillinger, Alex Steen, R.J. Umberger, and Brendan Morrison.  Those players produced 3 PP goals, 3 PP goals, 2 PP goals, 4 PP goals, and 3 PP goals respectively.  Ponikarovsky got 1 PP goal, and 6 PP assists.  7 points in 135 minutes on the Power Play works out to roughly 0.44 points per 60 mins on the power play.

His production was better in the previous season (06-07) when he played about 45 more minutes on the PP over the course of the season, and he scored 6 PP goals, and had 11 PP points.  Obviously his confidence was improved, and he played a generally more aggressive game.

One noticeable decline in his game last season was his physical play.  He dropped from consecutive years with 133 hits, to 77 hits last year.  Hopefully with a more rambunctious set of team-mates, that total will return to previous levels.

Overall, Ponikarovsky is likely capable of top 6 production if he were to be given top 6 minutes.  His numbers are comparable to many top 6 players and prospects around the league.  He’s 28, which puts him in a decent place to step up and take on more of a productive role with the club.  Improvement should be expected out of him this season, and I would expect Wilson to give him more consistent minutes on both the power play and the PK.  Hopefully his confidence will be boosted also.

Alex Steen - I posted about Alex the other day also, and personally think he is due for a bit of a breakout season.  I would not be surprised if the Leafs go with a top line of Antropov, Ponikarovsky, and Steen.  Antropov and Ponikarovsky have played together a lot in previous seasons, and displayed large amounts of defensive chemistry over past years.  During the stretch where Sundin was out with injury last year, Ponikarovsky and Steen played together and both of them went on very productive scoring streaks.  It may have been a flash in the pan kind of result, but it’s definitely something for the club to build upon going forward.  I’d give it a chance and see what comes out of it.

Jason Blake - I don’t really know if anyone should expect Jason Blake to score 40 goals again anytime soon, especially considering his 15 goal output of last season.  Finishing in the top 5 in the NHL in shots taken, but having by far the worst shooting percentage of that group, definitely puts a crimp on how people percieve you as a player.

Blake has been accurately described as a selfish performer at times in his career.  His tendency to shoot from all angles, and ignore linemates in trying to do his own thing will likely not sit well with Ron Wilson, so if he again looks poised to regularly waste chances with idiotic wristers from 50 feet out, don’t expect him to see a lot of ice time in the coming year.

That being said, Blake DOES possess the skill to play at the level of a top 6 forward in the NHL.  With the right line mates, and the right amount of restraint, Blake can be one of the premier scoring pests in the NHL.  This season will be a toss up for him, and it could come down on either side.  At least he’s making the right noises heading into this season about improved play.

Niklas Hagman - Hagman finished last season with 27 goals, which tied him for second most on the Dallas Stars last year.  He also had very limited PP minutes, playing predominantly at even strength and on the penalty kill.  Other players that finished with 27 goals include his former Dallas team mate Mike Ribiero, Nathan Horton, Keith Tkachuk, Radim Vrbata, Jason Pominville, Ryan Malone, Chris Higgins, Johan Franzen, and Marco Sturm.

Where Hagman typically comes up lacking is in his play making ability.  He only had 14 assists last season, and his career high came in his rookie season when he had 18.  He’s more of a trigger man than a passer, so don’t expect him to put up over 50 points ever.  I think the Leafs brass will be pleased if they get 30-35 points out of him this season.

Thus, he’s not really likely to produce like a top 6 player, but considering his potential output, he has to be considered a reasonable contender for one of the top 6 line positions.

Nikolai Kulemin - I know, I know… the kid has yet to play in the NHL.  That being said, I seriously don’t think it’s unrealistic to slot in the leading goal scorer from the RSL 2 seasons ago, who is a former line mate of Ovechkin and Malkin (and was never a liability in such a role) as a top 6 player for the Leafs.

Assuming Antropov, Ponikarovsky, and Steen play together on the top line (I have no idea if it will work out that way), it makes some sense to think Grabovsky, and Kulemin will see scoring line minutes, possibly alongside Jason Blake, or Jiri Tlusty.

This will be a season of exploration and determination.  The Leafs need to know who can swim at this level, and who is going to sink.  Typically players will rise to the level of their ability within the role they are handed.  If a player is given top 6 minutes, and they produce like a 4th liner… then they should be playing 4th line minutes.

The other thing that should be considered with all of the aforementioned players (aside from Blake) is that they are quite well regarded in terms of their defensive awareness.  Antropov, Steen, Ponikarovsky, Kulemin, and Hagman have all earned solid reputations as being responsible in their own end.  That bodes well from the perspective of Ron Wilson, and his efforts to improve the goals against totals for the Leafs this season.

I don’t honestly think the Leafs suffer from a lack of potential up front.  They just have a lot of unproven commodities.  Having reduced expectations makes more sense than having some sort of crazy over-estimate that pretends the Leafs are going to lead the league in scoring.  At least we’re done with the “Cup bound” kinda crap we’ve been hearing the past few seasons.