Toronto Maple Leafs

It Takes A Lot More Than 2

Ok so I was listening to Howard Berger’s ranting on Hockey Central today at noon, while driving around town, and I couldn’t help but pick up some points of contention. Howard talks a good game, but his facts are a bit out of whack.

“The feeling I get from many Leafs fans is that they wanna see the Leafs play just well enough to lose most nights this year… You get yourself somebody to go along with Luke Schenn, both those players begin to develop in the next few years, you get yourself a solid foundation and you’re on your way.”

I’m going to come back to this sentiment but it is quite horribly, abominably, flawed. Just look at the Quebec Nordiques and the players they drafted after finishing at the bottom of the NHL perennially, and how long it took them to make it to “respectable” status.

From 1987-88 through 1991-92, they never had more than 69 points in a season. They finished dead last in the NHL 3 consecutive seasons, and they had the 2nd worst season in 91-92. They had 3 consecutive 1st over all picks, paired with the first pick of the 2nd round in those years (89-91). They also picked 2 players in the first round in the 87, 88, and 93 drafts. Throw in the Eric Lindros trade with Philadelphia and THEN you have a “respectable” team built from the rubble of failure.

What Howard is preaching is ridiculously over-simplistic. For the Leafs to emulate teams like the Colorado Avalanche/Quebec Nordiques, or the more recent Phoenix Coyotes, or Chicago Blackhawks, they’ll need to suck for about 6 straight years, and hold on to their draft picks. I’ll come back to discuss the latter two situations in a minute though.

First I’ll take you on a detour through the ridiculous Howard Logic on the McCabe trade as is being discussed with Florida currently:

“Right now I don’t see the Leafs wanting to plug too many holes with veteran players. I wouldn’t trade Bryan McCabe for another player who might be construed in some circles as baggage. Now Mike Van Ryn is a good player, was a very good prospect… but he’s had, for the past two or three years, some pretty bad wrist problems , had some surgery, didn’t play much last season. His contract - I don’t have the number right in front of me - but it’s not a cheapo, it’s a pretty steep stipend that he’s making this season. So again, to me that goes against what the Leafs are trying to do, in terms of trying to be a bit younger and cheaper…”

Ok so Howard wants you to think the Leafs should be dealing Bryan McCabe for a young potential All-Star? As he so correctly stated moments after tossing out this gem, the Leafs can’t expect someone to take their garbage if they won’t take anything in return.

What they get out of the deal is a reduction in their cap hit going forwards, and a player you can actually move to another team, without consulting him or his agent first. Van Ryn is on the docket for $2.9 million for the upcoming season and another one after that. McCabe is going to cost whoever pays him another $5.75 million for each of 3 seasons. That means the Leafs would be paying NOTHING 2 seasons from now, and over the next two years will be saving $2.85 million in cap space each year. If $2.9 million a year qualifies as a “pretty steep stipend” to Howard, than doesn’t it follow from a $2.85 million savings that the Leafs are providing themselves with the room to sign a non-”cheapo” player in the near future should they choose to? I guess logic is a bit too much to ask.

Now back to Howard’s discussion of how the Leafs build themselves into a contender. I don’t disagree with the idea of going forward with youth, my problem is with what Berger thinks the time frame looks like, and the number of draft picks it requires. He’s estimating the Leafs “need 2″ foundation players. I would argue that building through the draft requires a team to scramble around the basement for a while until it can cobble together at least 5 solid players… at the minimum. Then it needs to add functional role players, who fit into the team mentality going forwards. This won’t be done in a year or so folks. Here’s what Howie had to say in comparing the Leafs situation to that of the Phoenix Coyotes:

“You need one more year to get yourself in a primo drafting position, and then again you’ve got a foundation, and you can build around young players. Unequivocally that is the way to do it in the post lockout NHL. You can’t plug holes. Teams have tried to do it, the Leafs… the Phoenix Coyotes tried to do it… they’ve started now to bring along some young players. Peter Mueller is gonna be a very good player, he started last season. Kyle Turris is coming up, Dan Carcillo is one of the premiere s*** disturbers in the game, and he can score a little bit, they’ve got some good young players, [Daniel] Winnik on that team. They’re gonna move forward, that’s the way you move forward in the NHL. You’ve gotta move forward with youth, you’ve gotta get… every time you get a front line or a player that has the possibility of mid or front line status, playing at the entry level contract area, $850,000 a year plus some - i guess bonus money or whatever you wanna call it - that’s just extra. You’re getting a guy playing for virtually peanuts, who could be your best player very quickly. That’s the way to do it.”

Lets just ignore for the moment the fact that the Coyotes traded away Nick Boynton, and Keith Ballard (one of their best young D men, who had picked up 20+ points in all 3 of his first seasons in the NHL, and was only making $2.275 million and heading for restricted free agency next year) to Florida in exchange for Olli Jokinen (who is still fairly young at 29, and has scored at least 30 goals for the past 3 seasons on a weak Florida team, but is going to cost the Coyotes $5.25 million each of this year and the next).

Phoenix COULD BE improving. Slowly. Last season they finished out of the playoffs, with 88 points. They haven’t actually been in the playoffs for 6 years (including the lockout season). Prior to that, they were in the playoffs 6 of the previous 7 seasons, though they exited in the first round every time they made it.

Unfortunately I think the theory that Berger throws out to Leafs fans about the Leafs ‘patching holes’ with veterans in a manner similar to how the Coyotes conducted business in the past is a bit off base. It’s also entirely illogical when you consider how things progressed in Phoenix.

When the club moved from Winnipeg to Phoenix, they had Keith Tkachuk, Jeremy Roenick, Mike Gartner, Teppo Numminen, Oleg Tverdovsky etc. They weren’t really plugging holes at that point. Tkachuk, Numminen, and Khabibulin were all drafted by the team. Teemu Selanne moved on to Anaheim after the team’s last year in Winnipeg, but Roenick and Gartner were brought in to replace the scoring, and generally the team wasn’t that bad. Shane Doan was drafted in 1995, and the team remained average at best through the 01-02 season - the last time they made the playoffs.

In the 2000-01 season, the team finished with 90 points, but failed to make the post season. During some internal upheaval (including the entry of Wayne Gretzky as part owner, and Cliff Fletcher and Mike Barnett in management roles) the Coyotes decided to jettison Tkachuk to St. Louis mid-season in exchange for Michal Handzus and Ladislav Nagy, and they let Roenick walk as an unrestricted free agent to Philly in the off season. The team also made deals to acquire Daymond Langkow from Philly in exchange for draft picks, and finally settled on giving Daniel Briere some playing time.

The trade for Handzus and Nagy was made in an effort to get younger. Paul Mara was obtained in a trade from Tampa Bay in an effort to improve the offensive abilities of the Defense. In 2001-02 the team’s fortunes improved as young Daymond Langkow and Daniel Briere helped out with an increase in scoring. The team was in the midst of a youth movement, and in recording 95 points en route to making the playoffs, most NHL pundits would have told you they were doing the “right things”.

Then somehow in 2002-03 the wheels fell off. All of a sudden Mike Johnson was the team’s leading scorer as players like Doan, Nagy, Langkow, and Briere struggled. Nobody on the team scored 30 goals. Briere was shipped to Buffalo in exchange for Chris Gratton in an effort to get “tougher” up the middle. Tony Amonte had been signed in the off season as a UFA to add scoring, but was shipped to Philadelphia in exchange for draft picks, mid-season for failing to produce. The team was still largely led by younger players, and they were still finding their way. The problem seemed to be the constant turn-over of role players. Those being added for scoring punch or toughness were either incapable of reproducing previous numbers or were given up on quite early in an effort to change direction.

In 2003-04 the team fell even further off the map with coaching changes and a complete reshuffling of the decks on the 2nd and 3rd lines. Ossi Vaananen, Landon Wilson, Branko Radivojevic, Jan Hrdina, Mike Sillinger, Brian Savage, Sean Burke and Chris Gratton were all shipped out in an effort to clean house.

Following the lockout, in 2005-06 Mike Comrie was still around, Mike Ricci, Brett Hull, Curtis Joseph, and Boyd Devereaux were all signed. Oleg Saprykin was brought in, and Steven Reinprecht and Geoff Sanderson were traded for. The Coyotes shipped out Peter Nedved, Denis Gauthier, Sean O’Donnell, and David Tanabe, during the season. The aging following the lockout - and the import of friends of Gretzky led to some pretty crappy hockey in Phoenix. The team still sucked in 2006-07 despite the fact that Owen Nolan, Yanic Perreault, Ed Jovanovski, Jeremy Roenick (again), Derek Morris, George Laraque, and Nick Boynton all collected pay cheques from the Coyotes. On paper, that really isn’t that bad a team, but it is getting older, and not a lot quicker.

Last year they gave more playing time to Radim Vrbata, Peter Mueller, Martin Hanzal, Daniel Winnik, Daniel Carcillo, Keith Ballard, Zbynek Michalek, and other younger players… and they still missed the playoffs. Now Vrbata is gone, Ballard and Boynton were traded for Jokinen, and frankly I’m not sure the team IS making themselves so much better. Mueller, Turris, Jokinen, Doan, Hanzal, Winnik, and Carcillo are all good offensive players, but the team’s D now consists of Derek Morris, Ed Jovanovski, Keith Yandle, Zbynek Michalek, and Freddy Mayer. Their top goalie Ilya Bryzgalov will make a big difference, but I’m still not sure they’re going to be much improved… despite what Howard wants you to believe. Their D will be spotty at best, but they’ll likely make the playoffs again.

Now on to the Chicago comparison:

“The Chicago Blackhawks are a good example right now, with Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews… I mean they’re a little bit lucky there to get two players of that caliber in the same year, but you see how a laughing stock like the Blackhawks was turned into a very good team in the span of one short year.”

Really? They turned into a good team in ONE SHORT YEAR? Let’s review. The Blackhawks have made the playoffs once since the 1996-97 season. That was in the 2001-02 season, and they lost in the 1st round. Since the 1997 draft they have drafted the following players in the 1st round:

97 - Daniel Cleary; 98 - Mark Bell; 99 - Steve McCarthy; 00 - Mikhail Yakubov, Pavel Vorobiev; 01 - Tuomo Ruutu, Adam Munro; 02 - Anton Babchuk; 03 - Brent Seabrook; 04 - Cam Barker; 05 - Jack Skille; 06 - Jonathan Toews; 07 - Patrick Kane. Then this past draft they picked Kyle Beach in the first round 11th overall. If you add in Duncan Keith, and James Wisniewski from the 02 draft, and Dustin Byfuglien from the 03 draft, you begin to realize that the Blackhawks took a lot more good drafting than just Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews. If anything I would argue that they were the finishing touches on a well built DEFENSIVE foundation of Seabrook, Barker, Wisniewski, and Keith. Lets just say that building a team through the draft that can get you 88 points and STILL not make the playoffs will take you at least 7 seasons… but it’s more likely you’ll need 10 or so… if you follow the Chicago model at least.

I guess my point is, developing through the draft is NOT as simple - or easy - as Howard Berger makes it sound. He’s telling everyone the Leafs will get a pass for not making the playoffs for next season. How about another 5 straight seasons? I doubt he’d be ok with that.

So there you go Leafs fans, either we build this team from the ground up - SLOWLY OVER TIME - through the draft, or we go for the quick fix. Personally I’d rather see the team built for the long haul, but I don’t know if anyone should expect patience from the majority of Leafs fans… or their ownership.