Howard Berger’s Analysis Is Pretty Bad
August 24th, 2008 by SteveOk, I’m getting to this very belatedly, but I couldn’t resist posting something regarding the last article Howard Berger threw at the wall in the hopes of having some grain of “truth” stick.
“The Maple Leafs are perennially, and justifiably, measured against the franchise’s last Stanley Cup winner – in 1967 – and there are precious few examples of reliable team defense in the past 41 years. Of the 18 men that have coached the club since ’67, only two have shown an ability to reverse the usual trend. Roger Neilson did it spectacularly for one season [1977-78], and Pat Burns coerced a generally Spartan club to mind its own end for a couple of years in the early-‘90s. The good Leaf teams under Pat Quinn were known for their creativity on the attack, and were made to look better defensively on many nights by the brilliance of goalie Curtis Joseph. So, Wilson isn’t up against tradition in his attempt to mould the current Leafs into a responsible group.”
Actually this doesn’t make much sense. Following the Leafs cup win under Punch Imlach in the 66-67 season, the Leafs actually remained one of the better defensive teams in the NHL. For 5 of the following 7 seasons, under Imlach, John McLellan, and Red Kelly the Leafs regularly finished in the top half of the NHL in goals against. In fact, despite expansion, and the subsequent increase in scoring, the Leafs actually had a total goals against that was 6th best in the league or better in each of those 5 seasons. In 1970-71 under McLellan, they actually had a lower goals against than the eventual champions the Montreal Canadiens.
Roger Neison, the “spectacular” architect of one great season in 1977-78, really only got the Leafs to the 7th best goals against that year. They improved defensively the following season in 78-79, ending up with the 4th best goals against total in the league (Montreal let in 54 fewer goals to lead the league though), but Neilson was fired halfway through the year, and the Leafs had losing record under his command that season.
Under Pat Burns the numbers did improve drastically. For 2 seasons of the 3 and a half he spent with the club they were in the top 5 defensively in the NHL. Despite what Howard says about the great “stars” Burns had to work with in Doug Gilmour and Dave Andreychuk, I don’t think many would count Nikolai Borchevsky and his 74 points or Glenn Anderson and his 65 points as All-Star candidates in the 92-93 season. In fact, only one player on the Leafs had over 80 points that year, in the highest scoring season in NHL history.
The fact that Toronto and Chicago were the only two teams to allow fewer than 3 goals per game that season is a testament to how excellent the Leafs D was that season.
The problem with the Pat Quinn bashing about his coaching of D is, he coached Leafs teams that were above the league average defensively 4 times since the 2000-01 season. That’s more than Burns or Neilson managed, and yet somehow he’s painted as not so great with the D aspects.
Basically Howard is cherry picking here, and he’s saying only “2 men” reversed the trend. Considering the Leafs have had above average to great D in 13 (or 32.5%) of the 40 seasons played since they last won the Stanley Cup, I think it’s a bit odd that defensive gurus like Berger consider this a justifiable argument. If you remember the fact that from 1980 to 1992, the Leafs iced some of the most atrocious NHL teams possible, and then consider that that takes up another 13 of the 40 seasons since they last won the Cup, well then you reach the logical conclusion that on the whole, they haven’t been great at D, or horrible at it. They’ve just been pretty much like every other team in the NHL OVER THE PAST 40 FREAKING YEARS.
I bet if we include Detroit’s seasons from the 1980’s we’d find some horrible defensive seasons in there. Perhaps we should seriously analyse the Devils of the early 80’s when they were letting in 350 goals a year.
I hate the idiocy of reporters that use team results from 35 years ago as if they are remotely relevant to the current edition of the club. Ok so Roger Neilson was good with the video scouting. Good for him. What the heck is that going to matter when the Leafs take to the ice this season? Does Howard honestly think the Leafs are sitting in the dressing room and contemplating the fact that the Leafs were pretty bad in their own end in 1985-86 when they let in 386 goals? Howard needs to stop dusting.
“What he [Wilson] confronts is a team entirely devoid – at the moment – of an elite skater. Neilson had front-line players such as Darryl Sittler, Lanny McDonald and Borje Salming to work with. Burns went to war with a middling blue line, but with arguably the best two-way forward in the NHL – and, undisputedly, the league’s top defensive centre – Doug Gilmour. On Gilmour’s flank was a 50-goal shooter in Dave Andreychuk. Quinn benefitted from Joseph, and the prime years of Mats Sundin.
Wilson has no such commodity. Goalie Vesa Toskala is his brightest asset, and that’s a good start. But, the Leafs will need to gradually assemble a nucleus of top-level forwards and defensemen if they are to become a juggernaut behind centre-ice. Or a force in the offensive zone. Teams that are capable of doing both compete for the Stanley Cup, and are routinely comprised of three to five All-Star-caliber skaters. That grade of personnel will not materialize overnight in Toronto.”
Ok so I guess Tomas Kaberle and his status as one of the top 5 defencemen in the NHL has escaped the notice of Howard. Lets just ignore the fact that the guy was captain of the Czech national team at the world championships that finished 5th. That was a squad that included Patrick Elias, Filip Kuba, Michal Rozsival, Marek Zidlicky, Martin Erat, Radim Vrbata, Ales Kotalik, and Tomas Plekanec. Yeah I guess Kaberle and his 3 all-star game appearances are crap when you compare him to Vesa Toskala and his 1 season as a full NHL starter, and his ranking as 31st in the NHL for both GAA and Save Percentage.
Apparently according to Howard only 2 star players were required for the earlier Leafs successes, but then he somehow randomly jumps to the number of 3 to 5. Just enough to prevent the Leafs from making it into consideration as a contender. I’m not saying they’re contenders, but seriously, this whole article is wonky.
Lets say the Leafs are currently sitting at 2 “All-star caliber” players in Toskala and Kaberle. I guess we can’t include Kubina, despite the fact that in 2003-04 he played in the NHL All-Star game, led the NHL in goals by a defender with 17, and won the Stanley Cup. He finished 8th in the NHL in blocked shots by a D man last year, 29th in the NHL for takeaways amongst D men, and 19th in goals and points by a defender in the NHL. He’s statistically a top 20 D man in the NHL, but obviously not All-Star caliber (if you stick to Howard Berger’s analysis that is).
Despite the fact that only 12 Defenders actually make the All-Star game and this past year the teams didn’t include Mike Green, Brian Rafalski, Brent Burns, Marek Zidlicky, Lubomir Visnovsky, Ryan Whitney, Mathieu Schneider, Adrian Aucoin, Michal Rozsival, Jay Bouwmeester, and Niklas Kronwall, all of whom would qualify to me as “All-Star Caliber”… 12 + 11 = 23, and if you add in Kubina, that’s 24. If you look at the overall stats, his all around play puts him in the top 24 D men in the league, but I guess you can’t build anything around that.
So now (using MY analysis and not Howard Berger’s) we’re up to Kubina, Kaberle, and Toskala. Nik Antropov isn’t an All-Star, but he’s not horrible. Alex Steen was the best defensive Left Winger in the NHL this past season according to Alan Ryder (scroll to page 39 and the All-Defensive team), and he’s bound to improve offensively. We also know the Leafs media LOVES Matt Stajan, so I guess he’s a good building block thanks to all that character and stuff. Niklas Hagman might not be an All-Star but he was the 4th leading point getter on the Dallas Stars last season, and he finished tied for 2nd on their team in goals with 27. Nikolai Kulemin is either going to light it up or crap the bed depending on which scout you listen to. Jason Blake had 40 goals 2 years ago, but thanks to last year’s 15, he’s not that great according to most.
I don’t entirely disagree with Howard’s logic on needing a nucleus of players, but the idea that the Leafs only have 1 good player is a bit ridiculous. They lack a true super-star. THAT I will agree to. Unfortunately that has more to do with a lack of recognition for Tomas Kaberle than anything. He’s one of the best D men in the league, and he deserves far more respect than he gets. What the Leafs lack in reality, is a proven commodity at forward, that they can count on to put up 80 to 90 points in a season. Until they find that player they have a problem, but I don’t think it’s quite as far off as Howard seems to.
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5 Responses to “Howard Berger’s Analysis Is Pretty Bad”
By Ian
on Aug 25, 2008
I think the gist of Howard’s article is that, along with a stud defenceman, a la Schenn, the Leafs need an offensive superstar in the system to contend and no one can disagree there. With all due respect to Tomas Kaberle, he’s a top 10 NHL defender at best, not top 5, and that really depends on the criteria used to determine this ranking. While his crisp outlet pass and silky smooth skating style out of the zone are amongst the best in the league, he’s not the guy you put out there to shut down the other teams’ top line and that is what drops him in the list, IMHO.
Kubina stands to have a solid year with the Leafs, providing he can stay healthy. I think that he will likely lead the Leafs D in scoring and is as likely to be amongst the top point getters on the club overall. Now that McCabe is effectively removed from the equation, there should be no question as to who will be the go-to-guy on the Leafs D in all situations.
Steen and Stajan are serviceable NHL’ers and would likely flourish on a winning team. However, they are not the kind of players that can hoist a team on their backs at any given moment, though they can put in solid individual efforts from time to time.
By Steve
on Aug 25, 2008
Ok even if we disagree on Kaberle, you’d have to at least admit he’s a legitimate All-Star D man. So between he, Kubina, Schenn, and Toskala you’d think the Leafs have the makings of a solid foundation going forward. Now all they need are some offensive players to lead the scoring push.
Personally I don’t think the Leafs are as bad as Howard et al are predicting. 14th is a bit of an underestimate in my eyes.
By LeaferSutherland
on Aug 26, 2008
It appears to me that Howie is simply trying to set up Ron Wilson for the fall here. Why compare him to the Neilsons, Burns, and Quinns of the past when the team is (finally) in a rebuilding year.
It would make much more sense to me to compare this team and it’s new head coach to past rebuilding projects the Leafs have made.
Perhaps the year after this next campaign would be a good time to compare to Quinn’s first year as a head coach. As you may recall, the Leafs had more time to re-stock the shelves prior to Quinn’s arrival, than Wilson’s this past summer.
By Gerald Norton
on Aug 27, 2008
I think Berger, like anyone, is not perfect, but he is one of the few in the media willing to speak the truth about the Leafs. As a Leaf fan I would expect you to consider him inaccurate, but all the stats in the world doesn’t change the fact that they have been a laughing stock for decades.
As for using Ryders stats to compare players, that’s very dubious, considering the main intent of his data groupings are to show comparisons among team mates more so then other players on other teams. Any list that ranks Steen ahead of Zetterberg, as a defensive player, is immediately suspect. According to Ryder, Dany Heatley is not one of the top 30 forwards in the NHL…hmmmm, that sounds accurate, right?
By Steve
on Aug 27, 2008
Ok, are you honestly trying to tell me that Howard’s contention that the Leafs should build around an unproven Canadian Junior player who has yet to step into the NHL as if he’s their ONLY valuable asset is telling “the truth” to Leafs fans? As if you wouldn’t take Kaberle to replace Redden or Meszaros? Give me a break.
I would be fine with saying Dany Heatley is one of the top 30 forwards in the NHL.
As for ranking Steen ahead of Zetterberg, Zetterberg was the 5th ranked forward in his analysis in 2008 with a players contribution rating of 121 points. Steen’s total players contribution was 56. That makes Zetterberg about twice as important as Steen.
The main distinction in the marginal goal ratings for the two players were their value on the Penalty Kill. When Even Handed, Zetterberg was worth 14 Players Contribution points, while Steen was only worth 9. On the PK Steen was worth 13 PC points, Zetterberg was only worth 4. They were roughly equivalent in Short Handed Opportunity points at 6 for Steen and 8 for Zetterberg.
Zetterberg saw 162:15 of Ice Time on the PK, Steen saw 225:38 of Ice Time on the PK. That’s a difference of over 63 minutes… almost an ENTIRE game in the season. Since Ryder’s Player Contribution stats take time on the ice into account, and Short Handed situations are considered fairly integral to the defensive score keeping, it follows quite logically that Steen’s excessive PK time would factor in his favour… especially when you consider that while short handed, Zetterberg’s team +/- rating while he was on the ice was -6.21 for every 60 minutes, while Steen’s team +/- rating while he was on the ice was -5.44 for every 60 minutes.
That is INCLUDING the fact that the Leafs had the 2nd worst penalty kill in the NHL last year. Obviously when Steen was on the ice in a PK situation the Leafs were better at stopping goals than the Red Wings were in a PK situation with Zetterberg on the ice.
If you want to dispute the results, just because you “feel” like the numbers are lying, feel free… but they carry some weight as far as I’m concerned. If you have any desire whatsoever to explore the actual math behind the rankings you could read the original papers on marginal player contributions, and check out his data sets for the past few seasons. You could then supplement that with info from behind the net… or David’s data on this website if you prefer.