Mikhail Grabovsky & Jonas Frögren Joining The Leafs
July 5th, 2008 by SteveThe Leafs are improving the team’s depth at all positions in a relatively solid manner.
If you consider that prior to the work of Cliff Fletcher, here is who the Leafs had on their roster (ages in brackets):
Forwards
Antropov (28), Sundin (37), Steen (24)
Blake (34), Stajan (24), Tucker (33)
Ponikarovsky (28), Moore (27), Wellwood (25)
Kilger (31), Bell (27), Tlusty (20)
Extras - Devereaux (30), Pohl (29), Belak (32)
Defense
Kaberle (30), Kubina (31)
McCAbe (33), Gill (33)
White (24), Stralman (21)
Extras/Injured - Colaiacovo (25), Wozniewski (28)
Goalies
Toskala (31), Raycroft (28)
Extra - Clemmensen (30)
Minor League Callups
F - Boyce (23), Battaglia (32), Williams (24), Newbury (26), Ondrus (26)
D - Kronwall (25)
Of those 32 players, 10 of them are - at this moment - not Leafs:
Sundin (37), Tucker (33), Wellwood (25), Kilger (31), Pohl (29), Belak (32), Gill (33), Wozniewski (28), Raycroft (28), Clemmensen (30)
That’s almost a 3rd of the roster, and their average age is 30.6 years. In their place, the following 10 players have been added, resigned, and will be getting an opportunity to make the squad in September:
Mayers (33), Hagman (28), Kulemin (21), Grabovski (24), Finger (28), Joseph (41), Foster (23), Earl (23), Mitchell (23), Frögren (27)
Aside from Joseph - whose advanced age should be considered separately from the other players due to his skill level, and the fact he’s playing as a back up goalie - the average age of the incoming players is 25.6 years.
Grabovski is a skilled Belarussian (who was actually born in Germany) who formerly lined up for Neftekhimik Nizhnekamsk, and Dynamo Moscow, in the Russian Super League. In ‘04-’05 with Neftekhimik, he scored 16 goals, and had 36 points in 60 games as a 20 year old. That put him 11th in the RSL in scoring during the lockout year, right behind Slava Kozlov of the Thrashers, and Alex Frolov of the LA Kings. He had more points than Pavel Datsyuk of the Wings, Petr Sykora of the Penguins, Alex Semin of the Capitals, Evgeni Malkin of the Penguins, and Maxim Afinogenov of the Sabres. Following that stellar campaign, he followed up in a partial ‘05-’06 campaign with Dynamo, scoring 10 goals, and 27 points in 48 games as a 21 year old.
He has since moved to the AHL after being drafted by the Montreal Canadiens. He played two partial seasons for Hamilton in the AHL, helping them win the Calder Cup in ‘06-’07. He scored 25 goals, and 74 points in 78 games in the minors over those 2 years, and in the playoff run he had 4 goals and 11 points in 20 games. Expect him to need some seasoning at the NHL level as he is relatively undersized at 5′11″ and 182 lbs. He has loads of speed, and is a very heady play maker. He also possesses a decent wrist shot, but sometimes falls victim to Sergei Berezin disease and tends to try to do a bit too much on his own.
Jonas Frögren is a stay at home defenseman with a lot of skill in his own end. He has lined up for Swedish Elitserien side Färjestad for the past 8 years. He was originally drafted by the Calgary Flames in 1998 (who at the time were being run by recent Leafs front office addition Al Coates). He has copious amounts of international experience, having played for the Swedish National Mens side in 49 games, as well as 15 games with their under-20 program, and 6 games with their under-16 side.
He is considered physical (even tough - and he’s Swedish - Don Cherry might have trouble with this), mobile, and makes very solid, though simple, decisions with the puck. He is also considered a great team player, and a good attitude. He lined up alongside Anton Stralman for the majority of the World Hockey Championships this past spring, so he should provide a level of comfort to the youngster as he develops on the blue-line. Think of his signing as being comparable (though less expensive) to the Leafs bringing in Kubina to play with Kaberle, who have also worked as a Czech international blue line pairing in the past.
When they introduce Frögren the Leafs will now have 9 NHL ready D-men signed to contracts, plus rookie Luke Schenn. Obviously the indication from the Leafs is that they would like to move McCabe. Whether or not he’s set to receive on that subject is still up for debate. They have said they will not prevent him from coming to camp, and they won’t discourage him from being a member of the team. That being said, the writing is moving from the wall, right onto McCabe’s face.
The logic behind standing “firm” in the face of the obvious disdain your franchise holds for your play, is a tad alarming. McCabe isn’t really making a “point” - though it could be argued that he has always been a very strong member of the NHLPA and they could be influencing his stance on the enforcement of his Non-movement Clause. We’ll see where it goes over the rest of the off-season.
Posted in Prospects
28 Responses to “Mikhail Grabovsky & Jonas Frögren Joining The Leafs”
By scotty on Jul 5, 2008
Why did you not include Kulemin in your list of newbies?
By Steve on Jul 5, 2008
lack of sleep - thanks for the correction
*The article is now revised
By Michael on Jul 5, 2008
Did I just dream that Belak was traded to Florida at trade deadline? And didn’t Kilger have trouble getting his work visa or some other problem after his trade to the same team?
Wellwood and Clemmenson are also done.
By eyebleaf on Jul 5, 2008
Excellent post, as always, Steve.
You have officially made me excited about Frogren.
By Doug on Jul 5, 2008
I think Cliff is doing a good job. He is rearranging the Leaf roster with younger, grittier, more talented players. I’m sure that once McCabe finds himself playing as the 5th or 6th “D” he will be more than ready to play elseware. I think Grabovski will help fellow countryman and Leaf’s 3rd pick; Mikhail Stefanovich to adjust to life in North America. Toronto’s Defensive play should be much better this year. I know it may seem a lame attitude to have, but; I only hope their level of play doesn’t net them a playoff spot. This team won’t have the thoroughbreds to compete at a championship level. They really need one of the few players that every team would love to have at next year’s entry draft. Even respected manager Lou Lamorillo’s and his New Jersy Devils have been slow to rebuild because they have Brodeur and an excellent defensive system that keeps them winning enough; to prevent them from drafting the kind of players they will need to challenge for a cup again. On paper Leafs offence should be anemic enough to prevent them from attaining a playoff spot, but great goaltending and good team defence have produced long histories of mediocrity.
By dan on Jul 5, 2008
Doug, it’s called stealing at the draft, it’s called making smart trades, keeping players who want to play for you, having a system…. The Devils do that all, they don’t want to rebuild. It’s a model that they have set up and will keep to build on. Same as Detroit. The Leafs should strive to make the playoffs this year. If they do, they will have done so without a big guy at centre. They will have done it without that star player. If they do it, they will have accompished something that would put them into the right frame of mind to build off. Bring in a star player and they might be ready to look at going to the next level. Or if they can’t sign a star free agent who will try to lead them deeper into the playoffs….
Wilson puts in a system for defence, lets players step up to take the lead who knows what is going to happen, Steen could turn in to the star player or one of the other players… who knows, being deep in the team might send them to the next level… go for it, don’t just sink it to try for another good draft pick, instill a winning attitude….win.
By eyebleaf on Jul 6, 2008
Frogren is rated 77 in NHL 2008 on the xbox 360…woohoo!!!
By Rickster on Jul 6, 2008
Easy there guys - this team is no better than they were last year, and signing international retreads won’t change that. Grabovski is Wellwood-light. The Habs - who value skill and speed above all - couldn’t stand him because he wouldn’t play defence or pass the puck. I can’t believe Cliff actually traded a 2nd rounder for him.
The only reason the Leafs have a shot at the post season is that they play in a terrible conference.
And as for Steen, he’s never been a star player at any level, so I don’t see why he’s going to step forward this year. He got to play with one of the league’s top 10 players for long stretches in the past two years and did nothing. He’s almost as bad on the PK as Stajan, and a major liability defensively. I don’t see why he gets a free pass.
By Doug on Jul 6, 2008
Hi Dan, Thanks for your comments. If we were talking before the salary cap era I would agree with you. The Devils won the cup in 2004. Since then it has been a slow and steady decline for New Jersey. They have Brodeur, 33 year old Elias, and Parise. Other than that, I can’t see much hope on that team. Sure the team is making the playoffs, but that’s all she wrote.
With free agency being what it is now, its hard to keep a team together. A team needs a young core to win a cup. Pittsburg came close this year, but their talent is unbalanced. They have 3 first line centres and a goaltender who will eventually be a top ten in the league. They need to trade one of their centres for one or two really good defenceman. Hossa left that team because of that imbalance.
He thinks Detroit has a better chance of winning next year because they have a balanced team.Team defence won the cup for the Wings. Chris Osgood played better than he ever has. Talent wise is Osgood a top 10 goalie? I don’t think so. Everything came together at the right time for Detroit. They have a number of players who are up in age. Even though Detroit may win their division,it should be considered a long shot for them to repeat. As their players continue to age I think their winning percentage will continue to drop.
The teams to get excited about and watch over the next 5 or 6 years are all young and built through the draft: Pittsburg, Chicago, Pheonix, L.A. ect. Leaf management could learn a lot from that team building model. If Fletcher was GM of the Penguins and signing for them the players he is now signing for Toronto, I would consider them a favorite to win.
By scotty on Jul 6, 2008
“Grabovski is Wellwood-light. The Habs - who value skill and speed above all - couldn’t stand him because he wouldn’t play defence or pass the puck. I can’t believe Cliff actually traded a 2nd rounder for him.”
The Leafs couldn’t stand Wellwood because he wouldn’t fight in the corners, play defense, kill penalties or SHOOT the puck - though he could win faceoffs and make the occasional spinorama pass that actually worked. The Leafs may actually let Grabovski have meaningful amounts of ice time, which the Habs were reluctant to do, though he produced well in Hamilton when he was allowed to play. How that translates into next year is just a guessing game and if Grabovski shows as little interest in team play as Wellwood then he can go to the farm.
And I think I must disagree with you on Steen. IMO, he’s one of the more defensively conscious forwards the Leafs possess. In fact, I think if he would lighten up on that sometimes he could gather more points for himself. But that comes with maturity. It’s not that radical to think Steen could be a 25 goal scorer in the NHL. That may not make him a “star player”, but it’s someone teams would covet.
And I can also guarrantee the the Leafs will improve in the PK stats. With all the question marks, I think I would put money on that one.
By Rickster on Jul 6, 2008
“And I can also guarrantee the the Leafs will improve in the PK stats. With all the question marks, I think I would put money on that one.”
Well they can’t get any worse - they had the worst PK in the league last year. They will certainly improve this year, especially since they are done with McCabe and have signed one of the best PK guys in the league in Hagman.
“It’s not that radical to think Steen could be a 25 goal scorer in the NHL.”
Based on what? He hasn’t scored at that rate since playing in the Swedish junior league (http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/steenal01.html). If he couldn’t do it while playing with Mats, its never going to happen.
As for Grabovski, he’ll be a healthy scratch before too long. AHL scorers are a dime a dozen.
By Steve on Jul 6, 2008
“It’s not that radical to think Steen could be a 25 goal scorer in the NHL.”
Based on what? He hasn’t scored at that rate since playing in the Swedish junior league (http://www.hockey-reference.com/players/s/steenal01.html). If he couldn’t do it while playing with Mats, its never going to happen.
Umm Rick, just a few points. Firstly - the rate he was scoring at in his final year in the Swedish SuperElit league with Frolunda J20 was 21 goals in 23 games. If you extrapolate that to the NHL, he would be a 74 goal scorer in the NHL. Those stats don’t really extrapolate so well. To be fair to Steen though, he led Frolunda J20 in scoring, and he finished 16th in the J20 league scoring that year, despite only playing 25 games. He also finished 12th in goals with 22… again despite playing 25 games in a league that has 40 regular season games.
Also, you might want to consider the fact that he was a 17 year old, and that was the same year he scored 8 points in 8 games at the World Junior Hockey Championships.
He was originally promoted to the men’s Frolunda side the previous season for 6 games, as a 16 year old. He made the SWEDISH ELITSERIEN as a 16 YEAR OLD!!! That’s NOT normal. In his first full year in the SEL, he was 2nd amongst scorers under the age of 20, behind Robert Nilsson, now of the Edmonton Oilers. Nilsson has played 128 NHL games at this point in his career scoring 62 points, Steen has played 233 games, and has 122 points.
Suffice it to say, he’s developed a bit more as a player than other Swedes in his age group (i.e. Joakim Lindstrom, Tobias Enstrom, etc.)
I think the jury is out at this point on whether or not he’ll ever score 25 goals in the NHL, but as a playmaker he could easily register 50 assists if he has the right players to play with. He is an industrious Centre, with solid vision of the ice, good speed, excellent stick handling, and solid defensive acumen. He works well along the boards, and makes solid plays. He should continue to develop in the right direction if given more ice time and opportunity in the right situations.
As for Grabovski, he’ll be a healthy scratch before too long. AHL scorers are a dime a dozen.
On the Grabovski front - you’re right: AHL scorers are a dime a dozen. RSL scorers on the other hand are not. Consider if you will, the amount of elite talent that originates in the former RSL… now the KHL. Now consider the fact that Grabovski finished 11th in league scoring in the LOCKOUT YEAR… as a 20 year old, where other league leaders included Alexei Morozov, Ilya Kovalchuk, Jaromir Jagr, Alexander Frolov, Nikolai Zherdev, Petr Sykora, Alexei Semin, Sergei Brylin, Pavel Datsyuk, Alexander Ovechkin, Slava Kozlov, Dainius Zubrus, and Evgeni Malkin. Now go back and think about the fact that you’re comparing him to Kyle Wellwood… who finished 4th in the AHL in scoring, as a 21 year old, in the lockout year… where the top scorers were Jason Spezza, Mike Camalleri, David Ling, Simon Gamache, Peter Sarno, Chris Taylor, and Andy Hilbert.
Which league was more talented? Look at the names and judge for yourself. Grabovski might be averse to defensive play, and defensive systems. If that’s the case, and the Leafs expect him to play in such a manner, then he might not be on the big club for long. Frankly the fact that he’s signed to a 1 year deal worth only $850,000 or so looks good on the Leafs. If he sucks, they cut him loose, if he’s good, they found a keeper. If he can work his way into a regular spot on the top 2 lines, more power to him. Why you’d assume he won’t is beyond me though.
By Steve on Jul 6, 2008
Oh and one more thing I think I should mention: Freddy Modin.
Played alongside Mats for his first 3 seasons - never scored 25 goals as a Leaf. Roughly equivalent to Steen thus far.
He’s scored 29 once since, and topped 30 goals twice. He also won a Stanley Cup with Tampa Bay.
Obviously not getting results alongside Mats Sundin (the main trigger man no matter who he’s played with - i.e. Alex Mogilny became a passer with Mats) doesn’t mean you’ll never get them without him.
By Steve on Jul 6, 2008
I also find the term “International” retreads a tad silly. Kulemin and Grabovski are both under the age of 25… how exactly have they been retreaded?
As for Frögren, the guy is 27, and he’s played more than double the number of international games for Sweden that Mattias Norstrom had at the same age, and slightly fewer than Mattias Ohlund had. He’s obviously playing at the top level in the SEL, and he’s considered one of their best blue liners. Considering Sweden has been ranked above Canada by the IIHF, and some of the best defenders in the world are Swedish, I’m not really opposed to the idea of bringing in a Veteran Swedish defender who has played regular minutes for their men’s national team.
By bkblades on Jul 6, 2008
As for Grabovski, he’ll be a healthy scratch before too long. AHL scorers are a dime a dozen.
And do these “dime a dozen” AHL scorers also have the pedigree that Grabovski has in the international scene, Rick? Grabovski has scored 14 points in 13 World Championship games for Belarus, not exactly a hockey powerhouse. In the World Juniors, he scored 9 points in 5 games. In the AHL, he also put up points, most recently 20 points in 12 games. On every level in his development Grabovski has produced.
Having seen the reactions and responses from Montreal Canadiens fans, Grabovski was more a victim of the numbers than lack of perceived talent. The Canadiens had an abundance of speedy and skilled, but smallish players like Grabovski above him on the team. There was no room for a guy like Grabovski who was too similar to most of the team. Why do you think the Canadiens are so interested in Sundin? Bottom line, Grabovski expressed his desire for more ice time, which Montreal couldn’t give at the moment. Montreal needed to get value for him or else risk him going back to Russia for nothing. Certainly, Grabovski needs to get stronger and improve defensively, but he’s no scrub or a player Montreal wanted to give up.
And I suspect that Grabovski was part of the deal that allowed the Canadiens to gain exclusive negotiations to Sundin anyway. A second rounder for a NHL-ready prospect is a solid deal for the Leafs. Remember, the Canadiens still need to pick a player of EQUAL value and production to Grabovski, so criticizing Fletcher for a trade that we won’t see results for 2 years minimum is absurd.
By Doug on Jul 7, 2008
As for Grabovski, he’ll be a healthy scratch before too long. AHL scorers are a dime a dozen.
Grabovski seems to project as a solid number 2 centre if he rounds out his game. Whether he becomes that for the Leafs long term as their team develops, remains to be seen.
Steen needs to accelerate his development. I see him as a checker but he must be assigned that role if he is to develop.
By Rickster on Jul 7, 2008
Steve - all good points. I see Steen as an average player, nothing more nothing less. His Desjardins numbers are average playing against average opponents. He may well blossom on the defensive end, but I don’t think it is reasonable to suggest that he’s going to be a scorer as others replying to this post have.
Frogren was seen by scouts all last year b/c he played with Brunnstrum, and only one NHL team bothered to offer him a contract. He is a depth defender, nothing more.
As for Grabovski, his RSL stats are intriguing, but he’s made a living dominating weak competition while getting pushed around by stronger and faster players. I have seen him play in the NHL and he was out of his league (so to speak). Most of his international scoring stats came from scoring 4 goals vs Austria in a World Championship game in 2006, his world junior pedigree came in the B Pool vs Japan, Norway, Italy, France, and Estonia. I suppose we’ll see if he can make the NHL this time - he’s entering his age 25 season and is probably running out of chances - even Pavel Brendl only got 3…
By Chris on Jul 7, 2008
I don’t know why everybody is saying Grabovsky is like wellwood. Wellwad is slow as molasses.
That being said, even though I don’t like the leafs, the direction they are taking is the right one (I think). Right now I see a defense with a few tough, shutdown guys (missing from the leafs d for a long time) and a bunch of character guys/potential top 6 forwards. What they now need is some star power…Tavares perhaps?
By Steve on Jul 7, 2008
There are a lot of things I would describe Kyle Wellwood as - soft, lazy, weak on the puck, weak off the puck, shifty, skilled, disappointing - but I don’t think slow would be one of them. The guy won the fastest skater competition at the Leafs skills comp a few years ago… he isn’t particularly slow. If anything he was one of the faster players on the Leafs last year.
The main reason the Leafs have been bashed as a poor skating side in recent memory is because of players like Hal Gill and Pavel Kubina. They really aren’t that slow as a team though. If they’ve lacked anything over the past few years, it’s been skill players. They still don’t have an over abundance of those, but the numbers are increasing.
By Steve on Jul 7, 2008
I fail to understand why you think it is unreasonable to predict Steen will score at the NHL level. If you watch the kid play he obviously has lots of offensive instincts, he just suffers from a bit of the ole Jonas Hoglund/Chad Kilger issue of placing his shots right on the chest protector of the goaltender.
As I said previously, even if he doesn’t score 30-35 goals, he’s got the speed, smarts, and ability to put up loads of assists. He’s pretty similar to his father from what I’ve seen… lots of stick handling, and passing ability, teamed up with great speed and vision of the ice, but not so much natural goal scoring ability.
By James Goneaux on Jul 9, 2008
Lets just take a look at the number of goals the Leafs projected (by the Star anyway) had last year:
Steen-Antropov-Blake
15-26-15
Tlusty-Grabovski-Kulemin
10-3-0
(coincidently, this is also their career NHL total…)
Hagman-Stajan-Mayers
27-16-12
Poni’ovsky-Moore-Devereaux
18-5-8
Seems to me, Leafs arehoping that Antropov can replace Sundin, and Steen and Blake can get at least to the 25 goal plateau. Hagman might get back to 30 goal.
Looks like another chorus of “if the kids can score, we’ll do ok…”
By Steve on Jul 9, 2008
Tlusty-Grabovski-Kulemin having 13 goals came in a grand total of 82 games combined. If the 3 of those players average 13 goals each over the course of an 82 game NHL schedule, that projects to the line scoring 39 goals.
Even if Hagman drops to 20 goals, Stajan can’t move his total up from 15, and Mayers continues to score 10 or so, that’s 45 goals from your 3rd line.
If Ponikarovsky gets another 20, he’s doing fine. Moore had 4 goals in 38 games with the Leafs, while Devereaux had 7 goals in 62 games. If they both play 82 games, then Moore projects to 8 or 9 goals, while Devereaux projects to 9, so that line will chip in 38 goals or so.
Assuming with the talent on the Leafs D that they chip in another 45 or 50 goals as a group, that amounts to a total of something between 170 and 180 goals, before your top line is factored in. If Antropov-Steen-Blake can pot around 60 goals, which is an average of 20 each, then the team will have scored between 230 and 240 goals in total.
The lowest scoring team in the league, the NY Islanders had 189 goals last year. The highest scoring team, the Ottawa Senators had 258 goals. If the Leafs can score between 200 and 250 goals, they’re sandwiched in the middle 20 teams. If they score between 210 and 230, they’re in the middle 10 teams. Personally I don’t think that’s an unreasonable expectation.
I honestly don’t think the team’s problem is going to be scoring goals. They aren’t the Islanders of last year. I think their main issue, as you might have noticed from the type of players they’ve been bringing in, is goals against. Last season the Leafs finished 4th last (26th in the NHL) in goals against. They had the worst PK in the league. They had the 2nd worst (29th) Save Percentage in the NHL. Vesa Toskala was passable at .904, Andrew Raycroft was atrocious at .876, and Scott Clemmensen was even worse at .839.
Cujo should improve the back up situation. Ron Wilson’s attention to detail should shore up the team defense. The scoring will develop on it’s own.
Despite what many in the media are predicting, the Leafs are not aiming for the bottom of the standings the way things currently stand. They will likely be a middle of the pack team next season all things considered. Probably about the same as last year, but considering their injection of youth, that should be taken as a positive.
By James Goneaux on Jul 10, 2008
Steve: you lots of ifs there, and necessarily so of course. It depends on a healthy team and whether the rookies and Marlies can step up big time. My belief is that it there is too much hope on “spare parts and broken hearts”.
Statistically, and I stand to be correct, those players 28+ have a difficult time increasing their goal scoring very much. It happens, and a new coach might be another factor, but for me, its things like Blake and Hagman being 35 and 29 and at least Blake being on the downside. Hagman is a goalscorer, full stop (26 assists in two full seaons?) Blake isn’t exactly a set up man, either (last year’s goal/assist ratio is out of character).
I think Antropov, again if healthy, can eat up a lot of minutes and could become Sundin-(very) lite in the assist department. But lets face it, this is a team that will need to have SOMEONE step up and dish the puck. When you only have one point a game guy, and he (probably) isn’t going to play, you better have a system.
I do see 50 goals as very ambitious for the D, though, with or without McCabe.
By Steve on Jul 10, 2008
Ok I fail to see how any of what I said involves the “Marlies stepping up”. Not a single player I mentioned played many games for the Marlies last season.
As for me expecting a player over 28 to increase his production, I projected a DECREASE for Hagman, and I said an average of 20 for Antropov, Blake and Steen.
Blake has scored 20 goals in 4 of his past 5 seasons, and last year he scored 15 despite the fact he was diagnosed with cancer and was playing for a new franchise.
Antropov is 28 and he scored 18 goals 2 years ago, and 26 last year. Expecting him to score 20 goals isn’t a huge stretch.
Steen has scored 18, 15, and 15 goals in his first 3 years as a Leaf, and if he gets more PP time, he can easily up that to 20. He also is only 24… far short of your 28+ number.
And obviously Steen is a set up man, and Antropov is fully capable of being one also. Hagman and Blake can be trigger men considering Stajan is more of a set up man, and Grabovski tends to pass more than he shoots also. Kulemin and Tlusty should also be finishers.
I fail to understand why you think Steen, Antropov, Stajan, and Grabovski are incapable of passing the puck effectively. If you look at the past 3 seasons, Steen has 48 goals, but he has 74 assists to go with those; Antropov has 56 goals to go with 64 assists. Stajan has 41 goals in the past three years, to go along with 58 assists. Grabovski hasn’t gotten much time at the NHL level, but in the RSL he had 38 goals to go with 56 assists.
The idea that the main thing Sundin provides the Leafs is a “set up” man is a bit off the mark. If anything Sundin has been a trigger man on most of his lines over the past 5-10 seasons. Even Mogilny tended to pass the puck to Sundin. In fact in 01-02, and 02-03, he had more goals than assists. He is not primarily a passer.
By Steve on Jul 10, 2008
Oh and I said 45 to 50 goals for the D, not 50. Perhaps that is ambitious for the D. But is it unrealistic? I don’t think so.
Kaberle should get 8-10. Kubina should get 5-10. Colaiacovo (if healthy) can get 5-10. White can get 5-10. Stralman can get 5-10. Finger can get 5-10. Frogen could get 1-5. McCabe could easily get 5-10 (if he’s here).
That works out to a low of 34 goals and a high of 85… but obviously they won’t all score 10 goals. That being said, it isn’t beyond the realm of possibility. I just think 45-50 is a reasonable estimate given the Power Play time they’re likely to get, and the fact that much of their skill players play on the blue line.
By greg on Jul 12, 2008
Seems quite optimistic to hope for a team’s D to go from 36 goals to ‘45-50′ when their only addtional to the blue line corps consists of an overpaid, average stay at home defenceman named Jeff Finger.
By Steve on Jul 13, 2008
I agree that it’s optimistic, but I don’t think it is unrealistic. I mean hell, they scored 38 last year with Bryan McCabe and Colaiacovo both missing half the year. They were counting on offense from players like Gill and Wozniewski from the back end. I would say that Finger is a HUGE upgrade on Wozniewski, and has more offensive upside than Gill. If/When the Frogen deal goes through, they’ll have solved most of their issues w.r.t the D corps.
If you consider the fact that Anton Stralman scored 4 goals in just 8 games at the World Hockey Championships - 1 more than he scored in 50 games in the NHL last season - then expecting his production to rise isn’t particularly unreasonable.
Finger may be considered a stay at home D man, but he scored 8 goals and had 19 points last season with Colorado.
Carlo Colaiacovo had 8 goals in only 48 games - 2 years ago when he had a solid stretch of uninterrupted play.
Kubina has led the NHL in goals by a defenseman before, with 17. He has scored 11 goals 3 times in his career, including last season. Expecting him to score 10 isn’t a huge stretch.
Ian White’s goal totals have increased every year he’s been in the NHL, and rose to 5 last year.
Kaberle has had 8+ goals in 6 of the past 7 seasons he’s played, so he’s fairly dependable on that front.
If they keep McCabe, he’s scored 15+ goals in 4 of his past 6 seasons with the Leafs.
Even if Finger only scores 3 goals, and you go with the career averages for the other players, you get a total of 43… and that’s assuming Colaiacovo gets injured and doesn’t play half the year. If he does play, he should score almost 10 goals. That pushes the total up to 48. If White and Stralman improve their total, and Finger scores more than 3… they’re up over 50. It’s really not impossible.
By James Goneaux on Jul 23, 2008
Well, my comments were directed at your original post with the ages. I took a look, and saw quite a gap in scoring in the second line (as per the Star’s projected lineup anyway).
You made some good points, of course (its the reason we come here…I just realized what I was getting into!). But as mentioned, you had quite a few qualifiers.
My bit about the Marlies is that it is unreasonable to presume a fully healthy team - all your projections were for 82 games, remember.
And who is in the lineup when these guys are hurt, besides Marlies?