Keeping Things In Perspective
June 29th, 2008 by SteveMarian Hossa is not going to sign with the Leafs. I know this. He will receive far more lucrative and logical offers with clubs far closer to contention for the Stanley Cup.
What the Leafs need, and what the Leafs are likely to get, will bear little resemblance to each other as the free agency signing period begins on Tuesday.
At this moment in time, the Leafs most pressing needs are one scoring winger, a solid shut down defender (or 2), and a backup goalie.
They will likely find a back up goalie no problem (Curtis Joseph anyone?). They might get one of the two shut down defenders at a reasonable price. They will probably get a patchwork effort in terms of the scoring winger, and may go for a player with upside that has failed to produce in the past few seasons.
What they will not get, is a top flight, marquee name, free agent. Ryan Malone is not going to come to Toronto. Sean Avery should not come to Toronto. Brian Campbell won’t be lining up in a Leafs uniform next year. Nor will a host of other players who have been discussed both in the media and in my blog… I know… you all think Hossa would be a flop - but since it will never happen anyway, I’m just going to disagree.
The players I think the Leafs are likely to make the biggest play for are wingers like Vrbata, Williams, Hagman, or Glencross, but we’ll see as things move forwards. If Cliff makes moves to add toughness, then don’t be surprised to see them in the mix with Avery, and/or Voros. I’d prefer Voros since he’s less of a head case. On D, I’d expect to see mention of Brooks Orpik, Mike Commodore, John-Michael Liles, Karl Rachunek, and Michal Rozsival. Kurt Sauer will also be available and should get some attention.
Less than 12 hours till it all begins - now I’m off to watch the EURO 2008 Finals.
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12 Responses to “Keeping Things In Perspective”
By dan
on Jun 29, 2008
PLEASE NOT Commodore. This guys lost a step already and if anyone throws money at him, they will look terrible. I have more faith in the scouting staff than that. PLEASE stay away from him.
By Steve
on Jun 29, 2008
Commodore would be far from my first choice either. I’d like to see them go after Rozsival or Rachunek personally… but I’m not sure if that’s how it will play out.
By LeaferSutherland
on Jun 29, 2008
I’m still doubting the Leafs will be landing any regular minute D-men through free agency, unless one of McCabe or Kubina is dealt away. Although Sauer would be a nice find. Instead, I look for them to try their damnedest at landing two top 6 forwards.
If Hagman is one of them, we will have had one very successful offseason. If not, I expect a Williams or a Ryder.
By Steve
on Jun 29, 2008
Hagman might be a bit over-priced due to the available players this off-season. He did score 27 goals on a relatively defensive Dallas club, and I think he helps the Leafs in terms of solid all-around play - but he doesn’t really generate his own offense.
He might be a good finish man to play alongside Steen.
By Doug
on Jun 29, 2008
I know Fletcher wants to bring in younger guys,
but I feel hard rock defenceman Jason Smith (age 34) would be a great tutor for their young defencemen. He could also fill in as captain after Sundin leaves. I like tough guy winger Aaron Voros and 6′5″ centre Josef Vasicek as free agents up front. These players would compliment nicely the young players who will be receiving on the job training this year.
By dan
on Jun 29, 2008
Hagman basically picked up his socks when Richards arrived. I agree that Steve that he doesn’t generate his own offense. This might not be what the team is looking for. If they get him on the cheap he’d be worth it, but not for more than 3.5mil.
Sink McCabe to the Marlies….
By Steve
on Jun 29, 2008
Roberts and Malone can be crossed off the list apparently. Toughness and leadership are still issues the Leafs need to address. Voros, Sauer, Rachunek are all possible still.
I’m beginning to wonder if they can keep McCabe around as the team “leader” if they want him gone so badly. He’s one of the most senior members remaining on the club, but he isn’t likely to have the well wishing of management. Kaberle is more likely as the next captain as far as I can tell.
By eyebleaf
on Jun 30, 2008
i still want Avery…and i’d rather we go after brad stuart, if anyone, on defence…that cat is underrated…
By Steve
on Jun 30, 2008
Under-rated? He just won a cup, and he wants to play in the West. He’s going to get more than he’s actually worth in my opinion. He’s a solid D, but he’s not worth $4 or 5 million.
By Ninja
on Jun 30, 2008
Williams or Hagman would be ok. But Hagman had a freakish/contract year offensive output in 07-08. Ain’t going to happen again. And why did Holland let Williams leave Detroit? Is there a underlying problem?
By Steve
on Jun 30, 2008
He didn’t “let” Williams leave Detroit. Williams was traded for Kyle Calder on Feb 26th, 2007.
At the time of the deal Williams had 26 points and was a +7, Calder had 21 points and was a -31. Over the last 19 games of the year for Detroit that season Calder had 14 points and was a +6. Calder was also a year removed from a 26 goal season with Chicago, and had an expiring contract, thus freeing up some cap space for the Wings.
Basically they brought in Calder as a deadline pick up to improve scoring depth, and free up salary cap space for last season. Williams was signed through this past year and was making $1.6 million a year. It was more of a flexibility move than anything.
As for Hagman, I don’t know if I’d call his output freakish. He never scored more than 7 goals in a month, he never had more than 10 points in a month, and most months he shot the puck around 20-30 times. In February he suddenly bumped that to 41 shots on goal, and he scored 7 goals. Considering he had 27 goals on 178 shots, In ‘06-’07 he had 17 goals on 152 shots, maybe if he took over 200 shots he’d score over 30 goals. I don’t know if that’s got anything to do with his contract expiring.
In fact one thing I’ve noticed is, his shooting percentage goes up when he takes more shots. I think a lot of it has to do with confidence. If he plays with the right players, and gets the opportunity, I think he could be a 30 goal scorer in the NHL.
By Ninja
on Jul 1, 2008
Let him leave, traded him, however you want to label it. Holland decided he wasn’t going to be a Redwing. And for someone whose strength is offense being traded to add offensive depth, that isn’t a ringing endorsement. With that said, I like what he brings on the pp. I’m just leery of why the best NHL operation cut him loose.
I like the analysis of Hamgan’s offensive traits, but I say he is more a 20 goal scorer than a 30 goal scorer. 10 more goals on 26 more shots is quite the bump to the old score sheet.
And please don’t take my cautionary notes as predisposed displeasure if either winds up a Leaf.
Keep up the great work, Steve.