Where Will The Pieces Fit?
June 26th, 2008 by SteveOk, so far the Leafs haven’t really fleshed out their line up for next season. A few prognosticators are calling for Antropov lining up as the top line Centre. I think if Antropov is your top centre (I’m not sold on the idea of him taking the majority of the team’s faceoffs as of yet) then Steen and Blake might end up being your top line wingers. I’m not sure I’m opposed to that idea, but if Blake continues to have problems with hogging the puck, and he can’t find the back of the net, he’ll drop down the depth chart pretty quickly.
Now… here’s where I throw out the typical logic and refer back to what I observed last season. Consider the following:
1) During the month of March, when Mats Sundin was injured on March 12th against the Philadelphia Flyers (he ended up playing only 4:57 in the game), Alex Steen and Alexei Ponikarovsky found some chemistry. The two players had 5 and 6 game point scoring streaks respectively, playing together on the top line without Antropov or Sundin in the line up for most of the games between March 12th and 25th. Antropov played the wing initially, followed by Wellwood, and Blake at various points. No matter the player they played with, Steen and Ponikarovsky produced at a rate unseen from either player during the rest of last season. March was the high water mark for both players, with Steen producing 12 points, and Ponikarovsky producing 9 points.
3) Matt Stajan’s production depends a lot on his wingers. If his wingers play poorly, he doesn’t produce. As a result, he doesn’t really create his own offence, but he does play up to the ability of his line mates. He needs to be more confident with his shot, but overall I think his play will improve this year.
Personally I think the following would be a good way to set up the Leafs lines as their roster stands right now, basically due to the two aforementioned points… and you ROLL these lines, so F1 and F2 should end up with roughly comparable ice time numbers… and Wilson will play whoever is working well on the PP.
F1: Kulemin LW, Antropov C, Blake RW
F2: Ponikarovsky LW, Stajan C, Steen RW
F3: Mayers LW, Bell C, Tlusty RW
F4: Williams LW, Boyce C, Devereaux RW
Extras: Earl W, J. Mitchell C
D1: Kubina, Kaberle
D2: Stralman, Colaiacovo
D4: White, Schenn (if they keep him up)/McCabe (until he agrees to a deal)
G: Toskala
The wild cards in this line up are Blake, Bell, and Earl. If Blake is atrocious again, you promote Tlusty. If Bell isn’t doing anything, you might switch him with Boyce to see if you can get some scoring, or perhaps promote John Mitchell from the Marlies. If Williams can’t get it done, you give Earl some more time.
Basically the Leafs need to let the kids play. If they suck… we’ll realize that over the long haul. Either way, they need at least 20-30 games before we can really form opinions about their level of play. Obviously this line up would not win a lot of NHL hockey games if they play the way they did last season… but that isn’t really the point of next season. The assumption is, the team will develop and grow together. I honestly think they are capable of scoring as well as any team in the NHL, without any of them scoring over 30 goals. They just need balanced scoring. Hopefully they do so… but the odds of everyone producing to their ability aren’t that high.
It is possible the Leafs will bring in a scoring winger like Vrbata or Malone, in which case Devereaux might be out of a job and there’s a bit of a shake up. If they sign a Defender, then expect McCabe to be the odd man out very quickly.
The other thing to consider is the inevitable injury issues that will arise. We’ll see what other changes are forth coming over the next few months.
*On a side note - I’ll probably be posting less frequently during July as I’ll be busy teaching summer school - but since I doubt there’ll be a huge amount of news on a daily basis where the Leafs are concerned, I don’t think you’ll notice the production drop off too severely. If anything major happens I’ll get to it eventually.
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7 Responses to “Where Will The Pieces Fit?”
By LeaferSutherland on Jun 28, 2008
I think what Ron Wilson really needs to do, is keep the kids in the slots that we wish for them to be in. Even if it means that they aren’t ready to be there at the beginning of the season, hopefully they show growth and improvement by season’s end. And thus Tlusty and Kulemin would be given top 6 positions, while Schenn (if he makes the cut) should be no worse than a 2nd paring D.
I also think that RW should give Alex Steen a golden opportunity to stick to the center ice position where he played most of Junior and seemed to have excelled.
We could really use a front line Left Winger through free agency. Obviously Malone would be the best option, but he may be offered way too much this summer. Hagman would also be a nice signing, but equally doubtful. Huselius may just be the guy we successfully land.
Since McCabe will be retained, I wouldn’t mind seeing Kubina packaged up with Stajan and sent to Minnesota for possibly Bouchard and Schaefer to shore up our center position as well as our back up spot to Toskala.
*Huselius ~ *Bouchard ~ Antropov
Kulemin ~ Steen ~ Tlusty
Ponikarovsky ~ Devereaux~ Blake
Bell ~ Newbury ~ Mayers
(Williams)
Kaberle ~ Stralman
Schenn ~ McCabe
White ~ Colaiacovo
(Kronwall)
Toskala
*Schaefer
By Steve on Jun 28, 2008
If I’m Minnesota there’s no reason for me to trade for Pavel Kubina. They just traded to get M.A. Bergeron for a draft pick, so if anything they have TOO many D men.
Currently they have Brent Burns, Kim Johnsson, Martin Skoula, Nick Schultz, MA Bergeron, and Kurt Foster (who is an RFA)… why the heck they’d add Kubina to the mix is beyond me. They don’t need another top 4 D man.
What they need is more scoring… especially if they lose Brian Rolston. They aren’t adding any scoring if they trade PM Bouchard for Stajan either… seriously that trade makes absolutely no sense from the standpoint of the Wild at all. It’s not going to happen.
By Steve on Jun 28, 2008
Oh, and I don’t get the impression that McCabe is going to be with the club when the season begins in October. There’s still 3 months between now and the start of the season for Fletcher to turn the screws tighter. If Bryan wants to dig in his heels, he might end up playing for nobody… frankly he’s not really making the wisest career move.
Think about this - you’re telling a team that doesn’t want you that you refuse to play anywhere else. He’s entitled to do that, but how is the idea of taking $7 million to not play at all enhancing his market value down the line? It won’t. At least if he’s on the Island, he has the hope of getting a fresh start, making exactly the same kinda cash, living in a place he’s comfortable, and maybe resurrecting his value on the open market for when his contract expires.
Unless he plans on retiring when his current contract expires, he really isn’t doing anything that makes much sense for the future.
By LeaferSutherland on Jun 28, 2008
I don’t know if the proposed trade is really that outlandish. With the mix of defensemen the Wild have at the moment, Kubina would be a lock to make their #2. And although I agree that Minnesota needs to focus on offense, that is exactly what Kubina can supply them with from the blueline, both 5 on 5 and especially on the powerplay.
Seeing as the relationship between the Wild and Bouchard appears to be drawing to an end, and there is little breathing room left for Schaefer, I think it would be seen as giving very up very little for a top 2 defender with size that can cut it in the West, while also a powerplay bite to him, along with a cheap forward that doesn’t have to be taught the defensive side of his game.
Nevertheless, it was just an example where the Leafs may have a chance at acquiring a centerman and a back up goaltender in one move.
As for McCabe, he may not be back with the Buds when things count, but I doubt it will have anything to do with Fletch turning any more screws. Seeing as the buyout scenario is off the books (and a financial gold mine to go along with it), he may just choose to settle for a change of scenery over a change in salary.
But at this point, I wouldn’t bet on him leaving just yet.
By Steve on Jun 28, 2008
If you want offense from the blue line, and you have MA Bergeron under contract for under $1 million, why would you make a move to pick up Kubina for $5 million. Just doesn’t make any sense to me.
They’d like to re-sign Rolston, they’re worried about losing Demeitra, and you don’t think they’ll pay the money necessary to hold on to an RFA like Bouchard.
I’m not really following any of the logic if this is the master plan of Doug Riseborough. I also fail to see why they need more offense from the blue line when they’ve already got Burns, and Johnsson.
I really don’t see the Leafs trading Kubina considering the way they’ve been speaking about him, and how well he gets along with Kaberle. I know McCabe is under contract, and he’s the more expensive option of the two, but there’s no way I keep him with the big club next year if I’m Fletcher. If it’s even remotely possible, I just send him to the Marlies… keep his money away from the cap, and use MLSE money in a way that provides me a way out from under the horrible contract JFJ signed.
By Jeff on Jun 30, 2008
Get Ryder from montreal
Get Perrault back (Have to have the puck to score)
Lets see how Stapleton, that russian Kumleman
(whatever his name is) try-out
Bring pogge in to backup Toskala
Keeps the team young and a balance of vets.
By Steve on Jul 1, 2008
Perreault isn’t coming back.
Kulemin is going to be playing on one of the top 2 lines this year, he’s not “trying out”. He’s got a one way deal for 2 years already signed, sealed, and delivered. He’s not going to the minors.
Fletcher has already said Pogge will start in the minors and will start 75% or more of the Marlies games.
That means they need to sign a back up goalie… possibly Cujo for cheap, but maybe Auld or Aebischer.
As for Ryder - he’s a possibility. He’s in the right age range, and he can score if he gets time on the power play, but he isn’t so great defensively.
Who knows where it goes from here.