If I Was GM…
June 26th, 2008 by Steve
Ok, in the past I’ve mentioned Vrbata, Malone, and Hagman. On the blue line I’ve talked Commodore, Hainsey, and/or Rachunek. (*P.S. I want credit for saying the Leafs should sign those guys months ago if they should happen to - I called the Kubina signing like 4 months early a couple years ago and one of these days someone will recognize my skills as a UFA predictor… or something) Here are a few other players I would strongly consider making an offer to, that most people probably haven’t given thought to.
Aaron Voros, F - As an NHL rookie last season, this shift disturber played 55 games for the Wild, scored 7 goals, had 14 points, and put up 141 PIMs. He’s 26 (turns 27 on July 2nd), and he’d replace a lot of the edge lost in giving up Darcy Tucker. He’s also a fair sight larger at 6′3″ and 205 lbs. If the Leafs want to continue increasing their team toughness, Voros would give them an instant upgrade in that department. Between him and Mayers, the Leafs would run into very few teams they couldn’t at least go toe to toe with.
Adam Hall, F - He’s 27 years old. He’s 6′3″ and 206 lbs. He skates very well. He doesn’t take a lot of stupid penalties. He was an all-academic player in NCAA hockey, so he’s reasonably intelligent. He has lots of playoff experience with 31 playoff games over the past 4 seasons, including a finals run with Pittsburgh this past off season. He’s also played at the World Championships for the Americans for 5 consecutive years, which indicates a level of dedication to improving his game. Earlier in his career with the Predators he had 3 consecutive seasons between 27 and 29 points. A groin injury this past season limited him to 46 games during the regular season. As a result, his numbers took a hit, so the Leafs can probably sign him relatively cheap. He played for $525,000 this past season in Pittsburgh, he could probably be had for around the same this year if the Leafs were interested, especially since Pitt is up against the cap. He’d be comparable to Domenic Moore or Boyd Devereaux, another warm body to take up a spot with the NHL club, who won’t hurt you, and might be around in 3 or 4 years.
Shean Donovan, F - Yes he’s 33 years old. But he’s also really fast, and very sound defensively. He’s gone deep in the playoffs, making it to the finals with Calgary a few years ago. He’s not going to score a lot of goals (despite scoring 18 goals and 42 points for the Flames during the ‘03-’04 season), but he’ll contribute to a solid forecheck, and he’s an excellent penalty killer. I think Ron Wilson would love to see him on the Leafs, and it’d be nice to convert an ex Senator into a Leaf. *Apparently I can cross Donovan’s name off my list as Fletcher has publicly stated he’s not pursuing ANY free agents over the age of 30…. oh well.
Michael Ryder, F - Considering Montreal is paying all their attention to Mats Sundin and Marian Hossa, maybe the Leafs could sneak in and give $1.8 million or so to Ryder. He had an off season last year, but considering he’s 28, and already a 2 time 30 goal scorer, why not give him a shot? When he gets PP time, he scores PP goals. He’s got a wicked wrist shot, but he’s a tad defensively suspect. Ron Wilson would have to work on improving his defensive game, but I think if the Leafs lose Sundin, and they’ve already ditched Tucker, and Wellwood, they’re going to need goals from somewhere up front.
Curtis Glencross, F - Edmonton picked him up from Columbus in exchange for Dick Tarnstrom, and he proceeded to score 9 goals in the last 26 games of the season. He’s only 25 years old, and he has a decent nose for the net. He scored 15 goals in 62 games last season, which projects to 20 goals over an 82 game schedule… and that was in his first full NHL season. He’s bounced around a bit, already going from Anaheim, to Columbus, to Edmonton. He was originally undrafted, and was signed as a free agent by Anaheim in 2004, which means Al Coates should be familiar with the kid. He has decent size at 6′1″ and 195 lbs, and he hasn’t shown any major issues from a defensive stand point. He’d look good in the Blue and White next year.
Ruslan Fedotenko, F - He’s 29 years old, he’s won a Stanley Cup (alongside Pavel Kubina with the Tampa Bay Lightning), and he’s relatively good defensively while giving you somewhere between 30-50 points. He’d basically be another Alexei Ponikarovsky, but I don’t really have a problem with that. If you pay him about $2 million, you’d get value in return.
Joe DiPenta, D - He’s 29 years old, but he’s defensively responsible, and he’ll take up minutes as a reliable 5th or 6th defender. He also has a lot of playoff experience with the Ducks over the past two seasons - 32 playoff games… plus his name is on the Stanley Cup. He was playing for $700,000 last season, so he shouldn’t cost too much.
Michal Roszival, D - He’s turning 30 in September, but he’s a very solid Defender and he’ll give you some offensive upside. 30 to 40 points from the blue line, along with dependable D, and he fits the mold of what the Leafs are trying to do… improve defensively, and play physically. He’d also blend well with Kaberle and Kubina, as yet another Czech national team player. He’d slide in at number 3, and he’d likely earn around $4.5 to $5 million a year. His signing depends on the Leafs being able to convince McCabe to go elsewhere. Before anyone cries foul about the Leafs bringing in another $5 million defender, THAT IS THE GOING MARKET RATE FOR DEFENDERS OF THIS ABILITY. He made $2.3 million playing with the Rangers last season, so he’s due for a sizable pay raise. If they can grab him for less than $4 million he’d be a steal.
Ok, that’s a pretty decent list of players I’d target - in addition to those I’ve already mentioned. As far as the players being discussed by the media that I hope the Leafs know enough to avoid, they need to stay away from Brian Campbell - his price tag will be too high, and he plays a very similar game to Kaberle, we don’t need another one of those.
Feel free to throw out any names you think the Leafs could use… I doubt they read any of this, but it’s nice to have an idea of what they should be going for before we all go off about how idiotic they are.
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21 Responses to “If I Was GM…”
By scotty on Jun 26, 2008
Jason Williams could be another possibility, though he appears injury prone, the latest being one of those nasty sports hernias. But if he could be healthy, he could fit well into the mold Fletcher is trying to form here.
and he could return to the feisty guy he was four year ago. I doubt Fletch will take that chance however. I also fear that Ryder can never return to his goal scoring prowess that he once possessed. It’s possible that I’m dead wrong, but that’s my currrent feeling.
I personally like Glencross the best from your list as I was impressed by his play for the Oilers last season (though I may be biased toward him slightly since he’s a Saskatchewan boy).
The player I would definitely remove from the Leafs’ sights would be Donovan: too old and he looked invisible most nights for Ottawa. But then, maybe that was just how that team looked for the second half of last year
By Troy on Jun 26, 2008
J.M. Liles would possibly be a good fit. He, like Ryder, had an off year last season, but he’s a dependable, puck moving D-man who’ll be 27 next year.
I’ve seen Fedotenko, I must say that he is someone who has to be around top talent to thrive. In 2003-04, he was on a line with Lecavalier and St. Louis, and he was brilliant in the post-season. However, in 06-07, he did not have those top talents (he did have Richards, but he didn’t have anyone on the right wing) and he had a mediocre season. Pretty much, not a great target for a team like Toronto.
Lastly, Ryder is a good target. Montreal has no chance of re-signing him due to their pursuit’s of Sundin and Hossa, so he could come to Toronto and try to re-gain his old touch. However, he’s only worth a 2-year deal (you see, JFJ would’ve given him a Jason Blake deal…)
By Karina on Jun 26, 2008
He doesn’t fit Fletcher’s age requirement, but if Sundin walks, I wouldn’t mind picking up Morrison. He’s an iron man, off season last year, but he was also getting bounced around like nobody’s business. Assuming Antropov is our #1 center, I like Morrison at #2 and Stajan at #3, keeping Steen on the wing.
By Steve on Jun 26, 2008
I’m almost 100% certain Brendan Morrison will not be signed by the Leafs - exactly because he doesn’t fit the 30 years or under description made by Fletcher.
He also probably would’ve cost over $3 million a year, and if he didn’t pan out, we’d have another aging forward taking up ice time that would be best used developing a youngster. Just doesn’t make sense from where I sit. Also if you consider the fact that his point totals have declined for 4 straight years, he’s not really something worth taking a chance on.
By Doug on Jun 26, 2008
Hello everyone. It will be interesting to see what Fletcher does this spring. I hope he has the gumption to hold back on trying to build through signing free agents. That would only raise the team’s winning percentage and put them out of the running for the high picks they really need to build with. I think the Leafs need at least two more top Five picks before they can start looking at bringing in any serious free agents. That means Leaf fans have to be patient. That being said I do like the idea of Aaron Voros, Steve. The Leaf rookies will need to be protected if they are going to develop. When Sundin leaves it will be difficult to find a servicable centre to replace his minutes. Likely Andropov will move into the number one slot. There’s nobody on the farm who can help. Josef Vasicek might be a fit to centre the second line.
By Steve on Jun 26, 2008
One thing that fans need to remember is, the Leafs can pick up 1st round picks by trading still. That means they might not have to be horrible to end up with picks in the top 10 in the draft. If they make deals with teams like Tampa Bay, or Atlanta, they might get into the top 5 picks through a trade.
The Leafs are not going to contend next year, and I doubt they’ll make the playoffs. Too many teams are ahead of them at this point… so I think we’re ok from the drafting high perspective. Despite what some say, I don’t think they’re banking on a huge free agent splash this year to improve the team.
In fact, If I’m the Leafs, I take great pains to NOT sign a huge free agent, with the knowledge that this year is basically a freebie from the fans. They’ll be able to play young players all season, and as long as they “work hard” and “give it their best” nobody will say it’s a huge mistake. The cat calls will grow louder if they play far below their ability… but that isn’t a concern with a young, growing team.
By dan on Jun 26, 2008
This years free agent crop is the pits. I’d prefer that they sit tight for one more year then take a run at a RFA and a better set of UFA players. The leagues free agent market is all but dead with every team locking up their star players right away for long, long term contracts. No one is avaiable in their prime any more. So what do you do to improve your team quickly? There maybe one or two good players but they don’t normally seem to be the cream of the crop. If you don’t have that number one to build around, how do you get him? The cap doesn’t appear to be an issue any more and teams have to have a payroll that meets the floor at a minimum so they lock up their star players.
So how do the Leafs go about finding a top line player? Come on Kulemin…..
By Steve on Jun 26, 2008
Here’s the thing about the long term deals… eventually a few of these are going to come back to bite teams in the ass. There’s no way every “long term” lockup deal works out long term. Just look at the NBA if you want an example. There’s a lot of players in the NBA that get signed to HUGE deals for LONG terms… and how many of those actually end up working out? Not that many. The elites will remain the elites… but there’s still a mid range of players that don’t deserve the money they’re being offered.
If you look at the NY Rangers, they’re going to pay Chris Drury and Scott Gomez $7+ million a year… each… for 4 more years plus a few more for Gomez.
Gomez has had 1 season in his 8 years in the NHL where he’s put up more than a point a game… and it happened to be his Free Agency year. Shocking isn’t it.
Drury? He’s never been a point per game player. His career high in his 9 year career was 2 years ago when he had 69 points for Buffalo. He’s had two 30 goal seasons, and he’s making over 7 million a year for 5 years? Heck… he might not even be their 2nd line Centre if they keep going the way they talk with the Sundin deal. It just doesn’t make any sense.
Hossa’s been a point per game player (or better) for 4 of his 9 seasons in the NHL. He’s scored 30+ goals 6 times, 40+ twice… think about how much money he’s going to make. Now if someone can explain why Gomez and Drury deserve the same kind of money Hossa is going to get… and yes Gomez has won the Cup, and Drury’s won the cup… but has either one won it where they were THE guy driving the bus? no.
Mike Richards deal is ridiculous… Thomas Vanek’s deal is a bit over the top. Dan Boyle’s deal is too long. Beyond that, I think most of the long term deals are not too unreasonable so far. If teams lock someone up long (and I mean long) term… they should get to cut down on the salary year over year. Job security should equate to a lower overall price tag in my mind. For a few teams that logic seems to have escaped them.
By dan on Jun 27, 2008
But that’s the thing. Last year NYR paid all that money because the two players were some of the most wanted players avaiable. It’s like a bad draft year. But I don’t think you go out and pick up a guy like Hossa, who does put up good points per game, to lead your team. Do you wait for next years crop. Well it’s going to be the same thing. It’s not going to be the main guy who is available, it’s going to be the guy playing second string.
So how do you get that guy?
Here are some deals that I think are good ones. Brodeur, Ovechkin, Luongo, Crosby, Lecavalier, Pronger, Giguere, Getzlaf, Iginla, Phaneuf, Datsyuk, Hemsky, Arnott, DiPietro, Heatley, Alfredsson, Richards, Briere, Jokinen, Doan, Thornton, Nabokov, Sedin, Sedin,
Most are longer term deals with 5-6 mil/year, or 6-7 depending on the player. The thing is that with the cap on the rise, it really isn’t that much of an issue spending 7-8 on your top player. There was a time 4 years ago that this was a problem. Now it appears the TB lightning problem is not that big of a deal any more.
By Troy on Jun 27, 2008
“Now it appears the TB lightning problem is not that big of a deal any more…”
Thank God
I commend Dan’s logic. Outside of Marian Hossa and maybe Mats Sundin, it’s hard to think of any high-caliber free agents this year. Hell, the players I mentioned, Liles and Ryder, aren’t that great themselves either. Good luck to the Silver Fox in his off-season endeavors
By Steve on Jun 27, 2008
As far as Hossa as a team leader goes, he did alright in Atlanta his first year there. His impact in getting them to the playoffs was rather sizable. He also contributed greatly in Pittsburgh’s cup finals run this season. Plus he was a key cog in Ottawa for years.
I think he’s just as capable of being a team leader as many of the other Czech and Slovak players out there… He’s a better all around player than 95% of the players in the league, and he puts up points that would put him in the top 10 in the NHL in scoring. I think the Leafs would be nuts to not at least CONSIDER signing him to a big free agent deal.
Lets put it this way: if you could get Hossa at $8 million a year, for say… 4 years; and you knew he’d put up 90-100 points a year, wouldn’t you take that deal? Also remember that the Leafs have nobody right now that is a natural RW to play on the top 3 lines. Tonnes of LWs but no RW in the system. I certainly would think you’d HAVE to consider that deal.
I think if anything Hossa is under-rated. He’s been slammed for years for a lack of playoff production, relatively incorrectly in my opinion. The guy has 61 playoff points in 75 career playoff games, and in his first 3 seasons with Ottawa in the playoffs, he played 14 games, and had a total of 4 points. If you throw out those first 3 seasons, he’s got 57 points in his last 61 playoff games… that’s pretty damn good.
Does that mean the Leafs are changing direction? Not necessarily. Do I think they contend next year? no… but in 2 or 3 years, they’d be a hell of a lot better than they are now.
By dan on Jun 27, 2008
I saw Hossa here in Ottawa for years, I just don’t think he has the leadership qualities that are needed to win championships. He’s always done well when he’s been insulated. He’s not captian material and I think you want your top paid player to be your leader, the guy who picks you up when you are down by two goals, the guy who makes a speach in the dressing room… are you alright with Hossa if he doesn’t have these qualities?
By Steve on Jun 28, 2008
There are a lot of good teams where the highest paid players aren’t the vocal leaders or in the dressing room. Minnesota - Gaborik; Dallas - Richards and Ribiero; San Jose - Thornton; Philadelphia - Briere; Chicago - Khabibulin and Havlat; LA Kings - Visnovsky; Edmonton - Souray.
I think Hossa compares to Gaborik or Thornton. He doesn’t have to be captain of your team, he just needs to put up points. He’ll do his job, and you just leave him to it. He’s the “face” of the franchise in many ways, but he won’t be telling other people how to play etc.
I don’t think people should confuse the captaincy for top scorer and highest paid player. If you want a leader, you expect that from your captain… that doesn’t have to be your best player, and in many cases it won’t be. The idea that they have to be one and the same doesn’t always line up.
Sergei Fedorov and Nik Lidstrom were probably the best two players on Detroit for years, but Yzerman and Shannahan were the team leaders, more through experience and respect than the number of points they were putting up.
Examples where the “best” play shouldn’t necessarily be the captain pop up in sports all the time, just look at any number of footballing outfits in Europe. Leaders and captains are more often midfielders or fullbacks. The strikers get a lot of the glory, but nobody expects them to be the vocal leader of the squad. Why make that mistake in hockey?
By dan on Jun 29, 2008
I’m more looking for leadership on the ice. I’m looking for a guy who’s going to bring you back from two goals down. A guy who’s going to put the team on his back when the chips are down. A player who shows a little emotion. I just don’t see the fire in his eyes the way that I see it in a lot of the top players in the league.
By Steve on Jun 29, 2008
If you want Leadership on the ice, check out the following numbers over the past 3 seasons and think about how Sundin and Iginla are percieved:
Number of 1st goals scored in a game: Iginla (21), Hossa (17), Sundin (5)
Number of game winning goals scored: Iginla (22) Hossa (16), Sundin (9)
OverTime Goals: Iginla (2), Hossa (3), Sundin (2)
Short Handed Goals: Iginla (2), Hossa (12), Sundin (4)
Ok so why does Sundin have the reputation as “Mr. Clutch” but Hossa gets the bad rap for under-performance in the clutch? Basically Sundin lives off the fact that he’s one of the top names in NHL history for OT goals, and a few years back he was Mr. Clutch - but that was a few years ago, and the team hasn’t won a lot recently. Iginla is one of the best “clutch” scorers in the NHL over the past 3 years, and he’s only got 3 more 1st goals, 6 more game winners, 1 less OT goal, and 10 fewer short handed markers than Hossa.
If you consider the fact that Iginla has scored 124 goals in the past 3 years, Hossa has scored 111 goals, and Sundin has scored 90… again I repeat, are we bashing Hossa purely because he was part of Ottawa’s collapses against the Leafs?
I guess Hossa shouldn’t be the number 1 guy on the team in terms of attention, but I think he’s a solid citizen in terms of his all-around game. I think some of the crap slung his way by the media is a bit off base.
By dan on Jun 30, 2008
Sundin is considered Mr. Clutch because he’s earned that title. He has the most overtime goals of any current nhler (tied with Jagr).
Lets take a look at Mats in his prime… lets compare apples with apples. Because you have failed to take this into account and Mats has been on the downside of his career the past three years.
The best 3 year period Mats had was 2001 to 2004 where he had 27 gwg.
Hossa who has slowed down in GWG in recent years had his best years 2002 to 2005 - where he had 22. He has sinced slowed down to 5 and 4 ….
Jarome’s best was 2003 to 2007 where he had 23.
Short handed goals can’t be scored when you don’t get time on the PK. That’s a coaches choice, and not really a fair stat to compare. Teams also have different statagies for the PK, some teams try to net one themselves, and others just try to play D.
Again, the reason Mats has the Mr. Clutch title is because he has earned it. 15 OT goals, 94 GWG. It doesn’t mean that he’s going to be able to always put up those numbers. Also the past three years, the Leafs haven’t won a lot of games. Hence why the GWG stat has dropped off for Mats. Gotta win for that stat to even registar….
Jarome is an amazing player, leader. I do not disagree that he is worth every penny that he is paid. But I would not put Hossa on the same page as these guys. Hossa is a good player, but there is a reason why he doesn’t get the respect that players like Vinny, Jarome, Jagr… get.
By Steve on Jun 30, 2008
He earned the title years ago… the cumulative OT goals in your career thing is a misleading stat. It’s like saying Robert Lang is the leading scorer in the NHL because he led the NHL in scoring a few seasons ago.
And why the heck would we compare Mats in his prime to Hossa right now? We’re not going to sign Mats in his prime… so what relevance does that have?
If you want to toss out the minutes comparison on the PK, then compare their minutes per goal on the PK. Hossa scores a goal every 46:48 of ice time on the PK, Sundin scores one every 86:42. That’s a time neutral statistic for ya… so Hossa is roughly twice as deadly on the PK as Sundin.
I’m not arguing that Hossa is equivalent to Mats in his prime. I’m saying that I’d rather we spend $7 million on Hossa right now, than on Mats right now. Mats is in decline - like you said. Hossa isn’t… if anything he’s IN his prime.
You don’t pay players for FUTURE seasons for their PAST results. That’s INSANE. I’m sorry but following that logic we should bring Gordie Howe out of retirement to play another season of NHL hockey because he was one of the best power forwards of all time.
On a less nuts note, would you want us to sign Todd Bertuzzi? Because he’s in decline too, but I’m pretty sure he’d take our money.
My argument is that from a numbers perspective, Hossa is superior to Mats (who the Leafs are actually contemplating signing) and not that much worse than Iginla. I don’t think he deserves to be compared to Jarome, but he certainly warrants consideration if we’re throwing money at Mats.
By Steve on Jun 30, 2008
Either way, this debate is irrelevant since Hossa is not signing with the Leafs. I just don’t think they should sign Sundin either.
By dan on Jun 30, 2008
No. your question was why does Mats deserver the title Mr. Clutch. Nobody is arguing that Hossa is the better player right now, perhaps even more clutch. However you did try to compare Hossa clutch performances over the past 3 seasons with Sundin’s which isn’t where Mats earned his title of being clutch.
Now, that said, I wanted to show you that if you do a fair comparision when Mats was younger, you will see why, in fact, he does deserve the title of Mr. Clutch. You were quick to point out that Mats’ numbers were less than Hossa’s and Iginla’s and that he didn’t deserve the title. But if you look at the three players top three seasons, not their most current three seasons, the numbers are vastly different. It is also interesting that you skewed the numbers to the three year mark when the season before Sundin had 10 GWG to 5 by Hossa. Iginla only looks better… but that’s why I’d take him on my team in a heartbeat. What is also interesting, that you would go to a goals per PK minutes. That doesn’t really do the stats justice unless you show that the two players played similar amounts on the PK. I don’t even know where you go to get stats like that…. wow.
very impressive how you can quickly come up with these stats. I mean to break it into short handed goals per pk minute is very cool. You get the nod on that one.
Cheers! Happy Canada Day
By Steve on Jun 30, 2008
I wasn’t skewing them… just taking the most recent 3 seasons.
I’ll agree that Sundin WAS Mr. Clutch… I just don’t think he is recently. There’s a reason you name an MVP every season, rather than handing the title out arbitrarily every couple years.
The minutes per goal on the PK is relevant because it negates the distinction in terms of the minutes they played on the PK. If they played exactly the same number of minutes on the PK, Hossa would score almost twice as many SH goals.
Either way, as I said, point is moot, I figure they’re both playing elsewhere next season… Happy Canada Day.
By bkblades on Jun 30, 2008
Since we’re comparing Sundin to Hossa here over a three year period, let’s expand the stats here.
Hossa over a three year period has totaled 3239 Even Strength Total On Ice (TOI) minutes, 1250.83 PP TOI, and 561.25 PK TOI. In those minutes, Hossa has amassed rates of 2.45 Even Strength Points/60 minutes, 5.37 PP points/60 minutes, and 1.50 PK points/60 minutes.
Sundin over the same three year period has totaled 2978.18 ES TOI minutes, 1093.93 PP TOI, and 346.82 PK TOI. Within those minutes, Sundin has scored rates of 2.44 Even Strength Points/60 minutes, 5.70 PP points/60 minutes, and 1.04 PK points/60 minutes.
Sundin and Hossa compare favourably to each other where Hossa clearly scores more than Sundin in the PK, but Sundin blows Hossa away on the PP. Both players didn’t play in very good scoring environments either. Hossa has however logged more ice time across the board than Sundin. But even so, they’re pretty much dead even at ES scoring.
For a team built on young stars or a team on the cusp of the Stanley Cup, I think Sundin is the best free agent out there. Sundin is a fantastic and relatively cheap scoring machine (Sundin is looking at a 2 year contract at the most - then his salary is off the books). But for a team that is rebuilding or one that is laden with expensive veterans (or both in the Leafs case, ouch), Hossa is more favourable than Sundin. And that’s mainly because he is younger, rather than any perceived “upside”. Though I would be remiss if I ignored Hossa’s great two-way play. In the end, Hossa will more likely maintain his stats in his prime (I don’t think he will improve it dramatically by himself, however) than a 38-40 year old Sundin (though it does make Sundin look even more spectacular since players at his age usually drop significantly in production).