What Is Matt Stajan Worth?
June 24th, 2008 by SteveOk, last season I wrote a couple of articles arguing that Matt Stajan might be getting a bit more positive press in the local media than he really deserved. I also argued that he had solid potential to produce as a checking line centre in the future. That being said, I think it might have all gone to the kid’s head a bit.
According to a report yesterday by Dave Shoalts, negotiations between Cliff Fletcher and Stajan’s representatives aren’t going well. Fletcher thinks Stajan should be earning around $1.6 million, but Stajan et al think he’s worth something around $2 million a year.
If you examine the names of the NHL Centremen that were paid around $2 million last season, you might notice they’ve all done a lot more in the NHL than Matt Stajan ever has. I also think it’s note-worthy that two of the players mentioned in my Stajan comparison article, Halpern and Reinprecht, are on this list. Neither of them signed their $2 million deals until their 5th year in the NHL.
Jarret Stoll, Edm, $2.2 million, 4 year NHL vet, 286 GP, 59 G, 106 A, 165 Pts, 238 PIMs, 24 Playoff Games, 4 Playoff Goals, 10 Playoff Points
Mike Sillinger, NYI, $2.2 million, 15 year NHL vet, 1042 GP, 238 G, 308 A, 546 Pts, 644 PIMs, 43 Playoff Games, 11 Playoff Goals, 18 Playoff Points
Kris Draper, Det, $2.128 million, 16 year NHL vet, 950 GP, 141 G, 173 A, 314 Pts, 710 PIMs, 194 Playoff Games, 23 Playoff Goals, 44 Playoff Points, 4 Stanley Cups
David Legwand, Nas, $2.1 million, 2nd overall draft pick, 8 year NHL vet, 529 GP, 121 G, 206 A, 327 Pts, 318 PIMs, 19 Playoff Games, 2 Playoff Goals, 6 Playoff Points
Todd White, Atl, $2.1 million, IHL rookie of the year, 9 year NHL vet, 488 GP, 111 G, 169 A, 280 Pts, 178 PIMs, 43 Playoff Games, 8 Playoff Goals, 11 Playoff Points
Rob Niedermayer, Ana, $2.0 million, 13 year NHL vet, 932 GP, 157 G, 250 A, 407 Pts, 795 PIMs, 91 Playoff Games, 17 Playoff Goals, 36 Playoff Points, Stanley Cup Finalist, Stanley Cup Champ
Bryan Smolinski, Mtl, $2.0 million, 14 year NHL vet, 1056 GP, 274 G, 377 A, 651 Pts, 606 PIMs, 123 Playoff Games, 23 Playoff Goals, 52 Playoff Points,
Jeff Halpern, TB, $2.0 million, 7 year NHL vet, 597 GP, 115 G, 166 A, 281 Pts, 483 PIMs, 24 Playoff Games, 6 Playoff Goals, 12 Playoff Points,
Steven Reinprecht, Phx, $2.0 million, 7 year NHL vet, 479 GP, 106 G, 187 A, 293 Pts, 142 PIMs, 50 Playoff Games, 10 Playoff Goals, 20 Playoff Points, Stanley Cup
Nik Antropov, Tor, $1.95 million, 7 year NHL vet, 446 GP, 104 G, 141 A, 245 Pts, 453 PIMs, 28 Playoff Games, 2 Playoff Goals, 5 Playoff Points
Stephen Weiss, Fla, $1.8 million, 5 year NHL vet, 323 GP, 61 G, 102 A, 163 Pts, 117 PIMs
Matt Stajan, Tor, ???, 4 year NHL vet, 314 GP, 56 G, 71 A, 127 Pts, 127 PIMs, 3 Playoff Games.
So lets see… he’s played about 10 fewer games than Weiss, he has 5 fewer goals, and 31 fewer assists, for 36 fewer points. He’s played 40 more games than Stoll but he’s put up fewer goals and assists, and thus points (i.e. he’s less productive). He also obviously doesn’t have near the same experience as any of the other $2 million players in the NHL. So how exactly does he - or his agent - rationalize that he’s worth that much?
He made $950,000 last season, and somehow I don’t think scoring 6 fewer points than the previous season, along with a drop from +3 to -11 in his +/-, warrants him receiving a pay raise of about 100%… I mean… heck, I don’t even know if it warrants a raise of 50%, but apparently Cliff Fletcher does. The problem with all of this is, if the Leafs pay Stajan $1.6 million and he plays like he’s worth $2 million, they look good. If they pay him $2 million and he plays like he’s worth $1.6 million - or worse… they look like idiots.
Unfortunately I think a lot of this stems from the culture of entitlement that’s been building around the Leafs for years. It needs to change… quickly. Lets see how this plays out.
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7 Responses to “What Is Matt Stajan Worth?”
By eyebleaf on Jun 24, 2008
Stajan has also seen more ice time in the past couple of seasons. Yet his production hasn’t gone up noticeably. He is what he is. Steen re-signed for two years at $1.7 million a year. There’s no way Stajan gets more than Steen. Steen’s a stronger player with more offensive potential and is a great penalty killer.
As for him getting a raise, it seems like they all do, all the time. Even Colaiacovo got a raise going into last season, and he was injured for most of 06/07. $1.6 million should be the absolute ceiling on Stajan’s salary. If he doesn’t want to take it, he can sit on the sidelines for a year. Stajan is the last guy who should be making whack contract requests. This guy should be ready to bust his tail to impress Coach Wilson and finally make some solid improvements.
And that -11, for someone who’s supposed to be a checker, is hideous, and must improve.
By Doug on Jun 24, 2008
I really like Matt Stajan as a person. He has a positive upbeat attitude. However, Unless his development takes an unexpected upturn, I don’t think he has a place on a team contending for a cup. Matt has not one skill that is of the exceptional quality. He is fairly fast, but I wouldn’t call him an elite skater. Dominic Moore is significantly better than Stajan and he’s considered a fringe player. He should consider himself lucky that the Leafs are giving him the oportunity to develop.
By scotty on Jun 24, 2008
If Stajan wants to sit out and miss training camp and not impress the coach, then let him. The Leafs offer is very fair (maybe even a bit generous) for a player who shows fits of brilliance along with “what the heck was that?” plays from time to time. I like Stajan, but he’s not a cornerstone player. Moore appeared to be a more effective penalty killer and are the Leafs even trying to keep him around? If some other team wants to throw 1.8-2.2 million dollars at Stajan, let him go and the Leafs get a second round pick next year…of course, Damian Cox would write three articles about why the Leafs should have given Stajan 2.5 million a year for 5 years…
By HandsALot on Jun 24, 2008
Stajan mostly played in a defensive forward role, even spending a lot of time on the PK. Don’t judge him off of stats alone. Anyone who completely relies on stats to judge hockey players are simply tools.
Besides we aren’t exactly sure how many years were offered or whether this rumour is true. 2 Million at 5 years is much different than 2 Million at 2 years.
By Steve on Jun 24, 2008
HandsALot - You’re right, he played a lot on the PK. That’d be the same PK that was dead last in the NHL last season right?
There’s also zero chance that it was a 5 year offer at $2 million a year. That would take Stajan through his 9th year of NHL play… 2 beyond his first year of potential free agency. I sincerely doubt he’d want to be making $2 million a year for his first 2 potential years as an UFA.
At most it would likely be a 3 year deal… and either way, he hasn’t done anything yet to earn $2 million a year.
By the by, I don’t completely rely on stats to judge players… but I don’t rely purely on anecdotal evidence to judge them either.
If you reject stats as an evaluation tool, and you’re just going to trust your memory, you’re not doing yourself or anyone else any favours because that’s entirely subjective. The main reason stats are used is because you can actually compare players without having to watch every single game they’ve played over the course of a season.
Unless you’ve got the same people watching the same two players every night, it’s pretty hard to compare them over the long haul without stats. Some players have good games, some have bad, but over the course of a season, the statistical build up indicate trends in their play.
Last point is this - this is a site devoted mainly to STATISTICAL analysis of Hockey. If that is difficult to digest or accept, perhaps you should get over the name calling, and look for a “hockey thoughts and feelings based on games we watched one night two years ago” website.
By HandsALot on Jun 24, 2008
I said that anyone who COMPLETELY relies on stats is a tool. Which is true. Stats do not demonstrate many important characteristics of hockey players. Stats have also never been fair on defensive players, which is a reason why McCabe has been able to coast for most of his career.
But I was generalizing, I didn’t mean to insinuate that you were a tool. I will however still maintain that you cannot fully rely only on stats. Which is the same as only relying on a game that was watched years back, that would also be dumb. Don’t forget that the team that is better on paper is never guaranteed a win, and there is an important reason for that. That reason is just as important as statistical evidence. Don’t forget that you can’t really measure a players willingness and need to win.
“There’s also zero chance that it was a 5 year offer at $2 million a year.” That was just an example, I’m well aware that it wouldn’t be 5 years at 2 million per.
Another thing, plus/minus is not a good stat to follow, especially on a losing team. In fact Kaberle, the player most people claim to be the closest to defensively sound on the roster went from a +3 to a -8. Darcy Tucker on the other hand went from a -11 to a -8, and was bought out. This stat doesn’t mean much unless you evaluate ice team, linemates, and the player’s role on the team. Unless the player played with Sundin, chances are they didn’t do very well with this stat.
By Steve on Jun 24, 2008
Who are these people that claim Kaberle is the closest to defensively sound on the roster?
Kaberle is one of the least defensive defensemen the Leafs have. He plays reasonably well positionally, but he is hardly ever physical in front of the net, he often runs around his own end, and he doesn’t focus a lot of his attention to defensive play.
While I agree that +/- is a team stat, every player on the ice contributes to the stat. There are two points I would make. Firstly, an obvious situation where the stat is meaningful would be in situations where certain players play copious amounts of ice time, and their +/- rating deviates in a large way from the rest of the team. Mats Sundin was a +17 on the Leafs last year. He played more minutes than most of the forwards, and the team as a whole gave up 18 more goals than it scored. Tomas Kaberle on the other hand was a -8. Kaberle’s number is more in line with how the team as a whole played. When you consider that Pavel Kubina was +7, and Bryan McCabe was -2… you don’t really arrive at the idea that Kaberle SHOULD be -8 based on his “line mates” since most of the time Kubina or McCabe were paired with him.
Secondly, I think everyone would agree that typically a player who has a particularly good, or particularly bad, game at even strength will notice their +/- number has changed. Kaberle’s noticeably good and noticeably bad games from a +/- perspective (the ones where he was +2 or better, or -2 or worse) are roughly even at 7 good ones, and 8 bad ones. Matt Stajan on the other hand had 5 good games, and 9 bad ones. When you throw in the fact that 3 of those good games came in the first month (particularly his 4 point, +4 night in that 8-1 victory over the Islanders) , and that one other came in December when he didn’t have a single minus game all month, and you begin to realize that he was playing pretty crappy hockey from a defensive stand point for 4 of the 6 months of the season. Blame his line mates if you want, but I think he contributes to that overall.
Similarly, Stajan’s numbers have typically reflected the defensive play of the team as a whole. His +3 two years ago was about middle of the pack for the franchise, but this past season his -11 was near the low end. His ice time was up, his scoring was down, and he played with the not so productive Tucker a lot. Also, Tucker, Blake, and Stajan didn’t seem to be too sound on the back end, so a lot of goals were potted against them. He contributed to the problem. He doesn’t deserve $2 million.