Draft Discrepancy
May 15th, 2008 by Steve
According to some numbers from the Hockey News (helpfully provided by Lowetide), over the course of the 90’s 32% of successful NHL players taken in the entry draft were selected in the first round. For the Leafs, that should mean that roughly 1/3rd of all the players they’ve drafted who have had decent careers in the NHL should be first rounders. Luckily for Leafs fans, that looks to be the case.
This past season there were 20 Leaf draft picks that played games in the NHL. All but 3 of those played at least 20 games. Looking at the 17 players who played over 20 games, 6 of those were first rounders. Brad Boyes, Alex Steen, Nik Antropov, Jiri Tlusty, Scott Thornton, Carlo Colaiacovo, and Luke Richardson.
The strange thing with the Leafs when it comes to drafting is where the hell are their 2nd and 3rd round draft picks? Of the 17 players mentioned previously, only 2 were selected in the 2nd round, and only 3 were picked in the 3rd round. That means an astounding 5 of the Leafs draft picks currently playing regularly in the NHL were taken after the 3rd round. That’s over 25%.
Just by way of comparison, lets examine the players drafted by the team everyone touts as superior to everyone else: Detroit. The Red Wings currently have exactly the same number of draft picks as the Leafs playing in the NHL - 20 (surprised anyone?), and every single one of those played over 20 games in the league this season. 4 of the Red Wings 1st rounders are currently seeing ice time in the NHL: Mike Sillinger, Niklas Kronwall, Martin Lapointe, and Anders Eriksson. That’s only a success rate of 20% but that’s within 2 players of normal, and the Red Wings probably don’t always have a first round pick (but then again neither did the Leafs). The Red Wings have five 2nd rounders playing in the NHL: Jiri Hudler, Niklas Lidstrom, Slava Kozlov, Mathieu Dandenault, and Tomas Kopecky. Like Toronto they only have three 3rd rounders seeing ice time in the NHL. Beyond that they have a strong 8 players they’ve taken in the 4th round or later playing currently in the NHL. That’s actually 40% which far outstrips the Leafs results, but in such a small sample I’m not really sure it warrants all the attention the Red Wings staff gets. The main reason the Red Wings drafting is so lauded is its ability to find STAR calibre players. But lets be honest here… how many of those has the franchise landed? 3? 4? more?
Niklas Lidstrom, Pavel Datsyuk, and Henrik Zetterberg are obviously All-Stars, and Sergei Federov was once an MVP. In the next tier you could include Johan Franzen, Tomas Holmstrom, Mike Knuble, and Niklas Kronwall. Jiri Hudler, and Valteri Filppula might turn into stars, but they aren’t there yet. The Leafs drafted Tomas Kaberle and Brad Boyes, who are both legit stars at this point in the NHL. In their next tier you’d have to include Fredrik Modin, Nik Antropov, and Yanic Perreault (this is not based on current results only so anyone that thinks Yanic the Manic is past his prime, save yourself the time of informing me - I realize this). In the ranks of might become, but are not yet, stars would have to be Alex Steen, Anton Stralman, Carlo Colaiacovo, Alex Ponikarovsky, and perhaps Stajan or Tlusty. Yes the Wings picks have won more, but the Leafs haven’t drafted an MVP or a Norris Trophy Winner, so we’ll have to cut them some slack for not picking Lidstrom or Fedorov.
My point here is, while the Leafs ARE weak in their drafting abilities, I think their main weakness actually lies in picking mid round players. They need to improve on who they select in the 2nd and 3rd round. They could also improve on their selections of 1st rounders by taking players who might become stars, but as shown by the Red Wings… All Stars aren’t necessarily 1st rounders.
The next time someone trots out the “facts” about Detroit’s wonderful drafting, you can just remind yourself that they have the same number of drafted players as the Leafs do playing in the NHL, and most of the high quality ones were taken well after the 3rd round anyway… so why the hell would that impact on who the Leafs should take 7th overall??? Detroit is just as likely to botch a 7th overall pick as the Leafs are. Are the Red Wings seriously that proud of Martin Lapointe and Mike Sillinger? Would you be?
Posted in Prospects
12 Responses to “Draft Discrepancy”
By David Johnson on May 15, 2008
I have always thought that the importance of the draft and the relative strength or weakness of various teams drafting ability is largely over rated in the media.
Detroit has definitely drafted some star players late in the draft but is that drafting ability, luck, or their ability to develop players. One thing that good teams, like Detroit, can do is not rush their players along giving them ample time to develop their skills in Europe, Junior, the AHL or wherever and when they first join the big club they aren’t presented to fans as ‘a savior’ or the next big hope for the team. That really allows the player to develop at their own pace which in the long run I believe is much better for the player.
Compare that to the Leafs where some in the media have already pretty much written Jiri Tlusty off as yet another Leaf draft pick that won’t develop. He is only 20 years old. Holmstrom and Datsyuk didn’t play in the NHL until they were 23, and Lidstrom was 21 when he first played for the Red Wings.
By Steve on May 15, 2008
I agree. I think it would do the Leafs a lot of good to be able to season players like Tlusty in the minors… but they lack that luxury. Teams like Atlanta, and Columbus are examples where forcing players to play into their ability at the NHL level is not necessarily a recipe for success. That being said, Columbus is beginning to turn the corner on that front, despite forcing Zherdev and Nash to grow up at the NHL level. Players like Derick Brassard and Gilbert Brule will be eventually helping them.
Edmonton is another example where players are gaining solid experience at the NHL level, despite being quite young. Coaching and systems have a lot to do with the confidence of young players, so hopefully the Leafs can improve in those areas this off-season.
By Dan on May 16, 2008
So who is supplying the NHL with their draft picks? Who is the best at the draft?
NJ? Edmonton? Ottawa?
By Steve on May 16, 2008
Here’s a quick breakdown with teams and numbers… I won’t do a lot of detail unless you want it. That would require me to make another posting probably. Remember these are purely DRAFT picks… the teams didn’t necessarily keep them after drafting them, so this is just going to tell you who does the best job of scouting of players before they turn pro (quantity wise at least).
ANA: 20 players
ATL: 14 players
BOS: 30 players
BUF: 35 players
CAR/HAR: 21 players
CGY: 19 players
CHI: 31 players
CLS: 18 players
COL/QUE: 32 players
DAL: 21 players
DET: 27 players
EDM: 30 players
FLA: 25 players
LA: 28 players
MIN: 16 players
MON: 33 players
NJ 29 players
NAS: 14 players
NYI: 27 players
NYR: 25 players
OTT: 28 players
PHI: 21 players
PHO/WPG: 22 players
PIT: 32 players
SJ: 32 players
STL: 24 players
TB: 14 players
TOR: 23 players
VAN: 25 players
WAS: 20 players
Undrafted Free Agents: 114 players.
The lowest 3 teams in the league are Atlanta, Nashville, and Tampa Bay. They’re also 3 of the most recent expansion clubs, but that isn’t really an excuse considering Minnesota, Florida and Anaheim have all managed to promote far more players.
The top 2 teams in the league are Buffalo, Montreal, and then there’s a 3 way tie for 3rd between San Jose, Colorado, and Pittsburgh.
The median is 25 players per franchise. The mean is slightly over 22 players per franchise. Basically the Leafs are right around average with 23 players that they drafted playing in the NHL this past season. Detroit has a higher total at 27, but not as high as Buffalo, Montreal, or the other 8 teams ahead of it.
By dan on May 16, 2008
You Rock!
By Steve on May 17, 2008
Thanks. What should bother the Leafs is that their divisional rivals are all better at development than they are:
Buffalo: 35 players
Montreal: 33 players
Boston: 30 players
Ottawa: 28 players
Leafs: 23 players.
5 less than the next closest team in the North East… playing catchup methinks.
By Steve on May 17, 2008
Sorry that should’ve read scouting and not development.
By Greener on May 17, 2008
Great article Steve. Really interesting.
By dan on May 17, 2008
Yes, it is a very interesting article. When you think of the non first round picks and the later first round picks the Leafs have had, they have done pretty well. Montreal missed the post season something like 4 or 5 years in a row, that allows you to make some good picks.
I’m looking forward to the draft this year. Everyone says take the best player out there, but personally I’d like to see them pick up a forward. There are some good ones out there, some with skill like Nikita Filatov, LW, Russia and some with speed like Mikkel Boedker. In any event, speed and skill should be valued to a certain degree, but leadership and work ethic should be what the team bases it’s pick on. Character is the main ingredient to winning. Like killer or Clark, guys who fight till the end and still have a enough talent to make a mark. That’s what we need.
By Steve on May 18, 2008
I’m inclined to agree with you Dan. I think what the Leafs need is their own equivalent to Mike Richards, Derek Roy, or (going back a few years) Brendan Morrow, Shane Doan, etc. We need a LEADER. Right now the best option the media can turn to for the Leafs future captain seems to be Matt Stajan. Sure the kid is a nice guy, and he stands up and talks to the media, but the jam in his game is relatively non-existent. He’s got 1 fighting major in over 4 years in the NHL. He’s not a scorer. I also have to disagree with anyone that compares him to George Armstrong or Dave Keon. Love the old Leafs all you want, but Matt Stajan is not in their company… yet at least.