Where Do We Go From Here?
February 28th, 2008 by SteveIt’s pretty simple Leafs fans: Buyouts and Free Agency.
Currently the Leafs have $41.27 million dollars allocated to 18 players for the 2008-09 season, plus another entry level deal to Nikolai Kulemin, putting them around $42 million for 19 players. That does NOT include Mats Sundin, Kyle Wellwood, Mat Stajan, Dominic Moore, John Pohl, or Andy “What The Hell Are You Doing?” Wozniewski.
If you all paid close attention to Cliff Fletcher’s speech after the trade deadline, he vehemently insisted that the Leafs would look VERY different next season. If you drop the first 4 of those players I just mentioned, you basically accomplish that objective, so I’m not sure Leafs fans should be certain an overhaul is heading this way. That being said, I don’t sincerely think the team is going to let Wellwood and Stajan, both of whom are RFA’s after this year, go anywhere. They ARE both possible targets of other teams though, so getting them signed should be a priority at some level for the Leafs. They may let Wellwood go considering he may have made a trade demand before the deadline, but at least if someone signs him, they get a draft pick in return. One almost wonders if they’re letting them dangle in the hope that someone DOES try to take them and thus get picks in return… very sneaky if that’s the plan.
Personally, I think the Leafs should buy out the following players: Bryan McCabe, Andrew Raycroft, and Mark Bell. The latter two because they are basically non-performers, and they are eating up just over $4 million in cap space. By buying the pair of Raycroft and Bell out, the Leafs would reduce the cap hit for both to roughly $1.4 million. McCabe on the other hand is an interesting situation. Currently the hit against the cap for McCabe is $5.75 million a season, but because of the structure of his contract ($28.75 million with $7.15 million being paid out in each of the first 2 seasons, before dropping down for the last 3 years) he will be MUCH more affordable to buyout than he was this season. Under current CBA rules, if a player is bought out, The player is paid 2/3rds of the remainder of their contract over twice the remaining length of the deal. Therefore in McCabe’s case the cap hit becomes 1/3rd of the remainder owed on his contract, paid out over a 6 year period. The remainder owed on his deal would be two-thirds of $14.25 million ($9.5 million) paid out over 6 years, leaving a cap hit of $1,583,333.33 each season. If we contemplate the fact that this drops McCabe’s hit against the Leafs cap space from $5.75 million to $1.583 million, a reduction of almost 75%, we begin to see why waiting until the off season is worth the time.
So if the Leafs buy out those 3 contracts, they go from costing the Leafs just over $9.91 million to costing them roughly $2.97 million. That’s a savings of almost $7 million in cap space, putting the team around $35 million owed to 16 players. With 9 spots remaining, and around $18 million in available funds, the Leafs could definitely add a couple of solid contributors, especially if the team brings in a GM that is more circumspect with his funds. If we assume Stajan and Wellwood can both be signed for less than $2 million a year (combined), then the Leafs have about $16 million free to pick up 7 more players via free-agency, or from the Marlies. Let’s assume 3 or 4 of those spots go to players like Darryl Boyce, Jeremy Williams, John Mitchell, Alex Foster, and Scott Clemennsen. They should all be signed for around $850,000. That leaves just under $13 million to sign 3 or 4 more players. If the Leafs want cap space to spare, they’d be well served to try and bring back Sundin for about $3 or 4 million, and then spend about $6 or 7 million of what’s left on one or two higher end free agents.
Here is a list of young (all are 29 or younger), upcoming UFA’s (with their position) that are just entering their prime years and might be worth looking at:
Radim Vrbata F, Ron Hainsey D, Steve McCarthy D, Kurt Sauer D, John-Michael Liles D, Branko Radivojevic F, Josef Vasicek F, Jason Williams F, Adam Hall F, Chris Kelly F, Darcy Hordichuk F, Dan Ellis G, Antti Miettinen F, Sean Avery F, Michael Ryder F, Niklas Hagman F, Ryan Malone F, Mike Commodore D, Brad Stuart D, Paul Mara D, Karl Rachunek D.
That’s quite a collection of young talent, and by no means am I suggesting that the Leafs sign half of them. There is also a danger of overpaying for any of these players should they show up in Toronto and not produce. That is always a risk with younger talent though, and frankly even if the player doesn’t produce, there’s a much better chance of moving them than there is an aging player with no remaining upside.
If the Leafs ditch McCabe they’ll need to sign another top 4 D man. Hopefully for around $3 million, and one that is DEPENDABLE on the back end. Sauer, Commodore, Rachunek and Hainsey would all be solid choices. Up front they’ll want to add a top line scorer or two, so Vrbata, Williams, Malone, Ryder, and Hagman should all be in the mix. It will be interesting to see how this offseason shakes out, but by no means are the Leafs destined for horrible years over and over again.
Despite what Damien Cox or Steve Simmons want you to believe, the Leafs did a decent job of moving bodies at the deadline for draft picks, and if they buy out only 3 contracts they can get to a point where they’ve cleared almost $20 million in cap space. If they continue to let their own younger players develop, and add a couple of solid younger free agents, the turn around might not be as difficult as some prognosticators assume.
Now to find the right man to convince UFA’s to COME to Leaf Land… I’d take the job but I don’t think my name has enough weight around the NHL. Here’s what I would try to get on the ice for the 2008-09 Leafs (the italicized names are FA’s I’d try to sign, note that more than 1 player is listed in some positions due to the assumption that success in signings would vary).
D1: Kaberle, Kubina
D2: Colaiacovo, Rachunek/Hainsey
D3: Stralman/White, Commodore/Stuart
F1: Kulemin, Sundin, Antropov
F2: Tucker, Stajan, Blake
F3: Vrbata/Jason Williams, Wellwood, Tlusty
F4: A mix of Steen, Ponikarovsky, Boyce, Earl, and Jeremy Williams (any of Boyce, Earl, or Williams would end up on the Marlies)
G: Toskala, Clemmensen
There is obviously a few too many forwards in this layout, so it might be a good thing if the Leafs don’t resign Sundin, or if they package up a few of their older forwards to get more picks or prospects (i.e. Tucker, Blake, Ponikarovsky).
*thanks to James Mirtle for compiling the UFA list I scoured for this posting.
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19 Responses to “Where Do We Go From Here?”
By David Johnson
on Feb 28, 2008
The way to calculate cap hits on contract buyouts is more complex than just the amount you have to pay the guy. You can read the CBA for details (page 206-207) but if I did my calculations correctly McCabe’s cap hits if bought out this summer would be:
2008-09: 1,205,555
2009-10: 3,205,555
2010-11: 3,205,555
2011-12: 1,605,555
2012-13: 1,605,555
2013-14: 1,605,555
Steen will be a member of next years Leafs so you better count him in the lineup. I doubt he gets traded. I liked how Steen played when he was with Sundin and Antropov. That line worked fairly well. Ponikarovsky will be on the team to if he doesn’t get traded, which is more of a possibility.
I personally think if the Leafs can rid themselves of one of McCabe or Kubina and get a cheaper/better backup goalie (possibly Pogge) then they will have enough money to make some interesting moves. Aside from Hossa and likely Jagr there are no top-tier players in this summers free agent market and probably not available in trade either (Jokinen) but even if there were the Leafs may not have the assets to acquire one. That will leave the Leafs looking to add two to three $2-4 million second tier free agents.
By Sean
on Feb 28, 2008
Re: buyouts.
I’ve read in the past that teams are limited to three buyouts over the course of the CBA. Is that the case? And if so, do Domi and Belfour count against that, leaving them with only one left?
By David Johnson
on Feb 28, 2008
Belfour would not count as a buyout as for him it was a contract option that wasn’t picked up. Domi would count. They should have 2 buyouts left.
By Marco
on Feb 28, 2008
I think this is silly. Its still a good portion of the team from last year.The team needs a complete overhaul and not just some tweaks. The problem is a lot of leaf fans think when the team needs to be rebuilding we’ll still go out UFA hunting during the summer. Anyways, im not for it.
By Steve
on Feb 28, 2008
I can’t find any mention in the CBA of teams being limited to three buyouts… if either of you can actually locate it, I’d be curious to read it. (If it’s true, the Leafs had better get used to having some crappy players on the team or send some of them to the minors and just deal with it… if they don’t report or retire then it’s not our problem anymore is it).
I also used incorrect numbers in calculating McCabe’s remaining salary. He was paid $6.15 million last season, and $7.15 million this season. That means he is owed $15.2 million, or roughly $10 million paid out over the next 6 years if they decide to buy out his contract.
I found the formula listed in the CBA and recalculating the Leafs savings next year would be his actual salary of roughly $4.5 million next year minus the $1.69 million being paid out over each of the next 6 seasons. That reduces his cap hit by $2.81 million. Thus his cap hit goes from $5.75 to $2.94 million… which just about cuts it in half. Not as nice as I had hoped, but still not bad.
By Steve
on Feb 28, 2008
Marco, If you think rebuilding SOLELY by drafting young players is the way to go then the Leafs are going to be horrible for a lot longer than 1 or 2 years. No team rebuilds solely by ditching old talent and bringing in kids.
Typically teams remove veterans for players they think will do better who come in as free agents. It’s not that unusual. Look at how the Raptors improved by trading for Ford, and Nesterovic, and signing Parker, Gabajosa, and Calderon from Europe. It’s not crazy… it’s just a matter of improving logically, rather than signing players because of local ties or outside influences.
By Steve
on Feb 28, 2008
If you think about the Forsberg deal in retrospect, it really just let the Flyers get a chance at negotiating with Hartnell and Timonen before they became UFA’s. Both of them signed deals that overvalued their contributions. The Flyers also signed Briere for far more than he is worth. I’m not advocating that the Leafs should go sign 3 players for $20 million dollars like the Flyers did.
If you read my statements, I’m actually saying they should cut loose 3 players, and add 1 or 2 UFA’s, for about $2 or $3 million each. Not exactly mortgaging the farm is it?
By David Johnson
on Feb 28, 2008
Page 51 sections 11.18 talks about three buyouts outside of the regular period for ordinary course buyouts but I am not 100% sure what that means. My guess is it means that so long as you buyout the player during the regular period (which I believe is end of season to July 1st) there is no limit.
McCabe was paid 7.15 last year and this year, 6.15 next year and 4.15 in the final 2 years. If you add that up it is 28.75 for an average of 5.75 million per year.
The only way you rebuild solely through the draft is to get real lucky with several later round picks or suck for 2-3 years to get a bundle of top 5 picks (see Pittsburgh and Ottawa in the 1990’s). Normally you need to suck big time for 5 years to do that. Columbus has been pretty bad for a long time but haven’t yet become successful because they only once had a top 3 pick (Nash) and their other high picks are not star players (though Leclaire is looking like he could become a star goalie).
By Steve
on Feb 28, 2008
I would toss Zherdev into that mix.
As for the time-period for the course of regular buyouts, it’s discussed in section 13 of the Standard Player Contract on page 251: it begins following the later of June 15th, or 48 hours following the end of the Stanley Cup Finals… OR for Clubs with arbitration hearings, beginning on the later of the 3rd day following the club’s last arbitration decision. I assume it lasts until the opening day of the next season… but that part doesn’t seem clear.
Thanks for clearing up his contract numbers, I haven’t been able to find them clearly posted anywhere… Some postings had him making $6.15 last season, and $7.15 this year. I originally thought he was making $7.15 this year and last, but in looking for numbers managed to confuse myself… either way… I still think the savings on his contract would be worth the buyout.
As far as I can tell there’s no limit on buyouts if they’re done at the right time for league purposes.
By Steve
on Feb 28, 2008
Oh, and David, perhaps you should consider posting the players actual season-by-season salaries on another page in addition to the cap-hit listings, since it’s relevant for buyouts and such. Just a suggestion.
By Marco
on Feb 28, 2008
Steve I am not suggesting that the Leafs build solely through draft picks. I am suggesting that they get rid of the old, and replace it.
I dont want to see the Leafs going for Langkows, Huselius, and Hossas come UFA day. I would like some veteran leadership and grit.
Trades are also a key component for rebuilding. Sometimes faces just need to be changed. I just don’t want to see the Leafs going out and signing a big name because its pointless.
By Steve
on Feb 29, 2008
Ok, well none of the names I listed would qualify as a “big name” to me. None of them are likely to recieve $6 million dollars. I think at most you could expect some of them to make around the $4 million Scott Hartnell recieved from Philadelphia, and even then it’s unlikely. Vrbata is probably the high end of the group of forwards, and Liles is probably at the upper end of the D. Beyond that I think the market will push down a bit this offseason methinks. Competition or not, I think teams are becoming wary of those $8 million deals we saw this past summer… especially since very few of the players that signed them are turning out to live up to their pay cheques.
Hagman will probably be resigned by Dallas if he continues to produce with Richards like he did last night (first career hat trick).
By Sean
on Feb 29, 2008
Steve,
I can’t seem to find a reference to the three buyout rule from a major news source. No surprise, since they couldn’t even figure out the details of Kubina’s NTC, let alone an entire CBA.
But here’s a link to a discussion hosted by Mirtle where he mentions it:
http://mirtle.blogspot.com/2008/01/master-of-puppets-round-table-on-how-to.html
Quote from that link:
Mirtle: My mistake — you’re right, there is a limit on buyouts. Three over the life of the CBA. Chicago reached theirs already after a few awful signings.
By Steve
on Feb 29, 2008
The following is a direct pull from the CBA:
11.18 Ordinary Course Buy-Outs Outside the Regular Period. Clubs shall have the
right to exercise Ordinary Course Buy-Outs outside the regular period for Ordinary
Course Buy-Outs in accordance with Paragraph 13(c)(ii) of the SPC. Each Club shall be
limited to no more than three (3) such buyouts over the term of this Agreement pursuant
to Paragraph 13(c)(ii) of the SPC. However, in the event that a Club has only one salary
arbitration hearing pursuant to Section 12.3(a) in a given League Year, such Club shall
not be entitled to exercise such a buyout outside the regular period for Ordinary Course
Buy-Outs. No Club shall exercise an Ordinary Course Buy-out outside the regular period
for any Player earning less than $1 million.
Ordinary Course buyouts are those that fall within the alotted time period. The limit is only applicable to those outside the time period… as far as I can tell the time period is during the offseason following the team’s last arbitration hearing, or if they have no arbitrartion hearings, right after the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
By Sean
on Feb 29, 2008
Interesting. Good catch.
I’m amazed at how hard it is to find out about this stuff, given how important it is. Look at all the misinformation that was out there about Kubina and Kaberle’s NTCs last week.
Compare to the NFL, where it’s easy to instantly find information about cap commitment and available space for every team, and any beat reporter knows the CBA in detail. Meanwhile, nobody covering the NHL seems to be interested in this level of detail.
By mf37
on Feb 29, 2008
Why waste another cent on Raycroft and Bell? Just waive them. It’s cleaner, simpler and quite frankly they’re not worth any type of cap hit, even as buyouts.
MLSE has deep enough pockets to pay their salaries should they go unclaimed and end-up on the Marlies (or in Raycroft’s case the Columbia Inferno or whatever team is the Leafs’ ECHL affiliate).
Otherwise, I think your plan is a great start.
By Starved
on Feb 29, 2008
I agree with mf37. No buyouts. Waive Raycroft and Bell.
If it comes to it and no trade can be made for Kubina once his NTC expires on draft day, and the team feels it absolutely needs the space, waive him - don’t buyout McCabe. Although it looks like Cliff probably has a deal already worked out.
MLSE should eat these salaries, buyouts hamper the team for a long time, despite the immediate cap savings.