Toronto Maple Leafs

Thoughts on Rebuilding the Leafs

Ok, I know there are many Leaf fans out there begging the Leafs to dump everyone on the current roster so they can bring up the entire Marlies roster (gotta go with the youth movement) so they can tank the rest of this year and next year as well so they can win both the Stamkos and the Tavares lottaries. Ok, that may be a bit of an exageration but you get the idea. Many Leaf fans want a complete tear down and rebuild of the Leafs. But lets be realistic here. That is not going to happen.

First off, even if you finish last you are not guaranteed Stamkos or Tavares. Second, the Leafs managent are not going to accept 2+ years of having a completely horrific team and missing the playoffs. Furthermore, I can guarantee you that everyone clamoring for that now will be complaining that the Leafs are still charging big bucks for tickets but are losing most of their games, haven’t spent to the salary cap, and are missing the playoffs for the 4th and probably 5th and 6th years in a row. So, that is not going to happen. The Leafs are going to spend to the salary cap and the Leafs are going to try to turn the team around in a manner similar to that of the Flyers last year. To that end, they will try to free some salary cap this trade deadline, possibly bring in some roster players that can help the team this year and down the road, and pick up a draft pick or two and then in the off season add a few more free agents.

So, what might the Leafs do. Well, interim General Manager Cliff Fletcher was in a similar situation in 1991 when he joined the Leafs (though the Leafs were far worse then). So first, lets take a look at what Fletcher did to rebuild that team.

1. He acquired a goalie by trading Like Richardson, Vincent Damphousse, Peter Ing and Scott Thornton to the Oilers for Grant Fuhr, Glen Anderson and Craig Berube. I recall at the time that Fletcher said something to the effect that you build a team from the goaltender out and that is why he made the trade for Grant Fuhr even though he was a bit older.

2. He traded Gary Leeman, Michel Petit, Jeff Reese, Craig Berube, Alexander Godynuk to the Flames for Doug Gilmour, Jamie Macoun, Ric Natress, Rick Wamsley, and Kent Manderville. This turned out to be one of the more lopsided trades in history and worked out wonderfully in favour of the Leafs even though the Leafs picked up three older players in Macoun, Natress, and Wamsley. The key to the deal was obviosuly getting a top tier center in Gilmour but don’t underestimate the benefits of acquiring a couple of veteren mostly defensvie defensemen in Macoun and Nattress.

3. He traded fan favourite Wendel Clark, Sylvain Lefebvre, Landon wilson and a first round pick to Quebec for Mats Sundin, Garth Butcher, Todd Warriner and a first round pick. The justification for this trade was to increast the top end talent on the team and to add depth at the center ice position to support #1 center Doug Gilmour.

So if we assume that Fletcher’s beliefs in how to build a team are pretty much the same we can assume he wants to build a team with a top tier goalie, experienced defensemen and strength down the middle. He is also not afraid of older players if they serve the proper role.

In goal the Leafs are in a pretty good position with Vesa Toskala. Since December he has really taken over the #1 position and provided the Leafs with very good goaltending and sports a .920 save % since December 1st. That is quite good so I think Fletcher will be satisfied with Toskala as his starting goalie for the next several years.

On defense the Leafs have some decent players but I don’t believe have the right mix. Kaberle, McCabe, White, Stralman are all predominantly offensive defenseman while Kubina is a bit of both and Gill is more defensive in nature. Based on Fletchers previous moves with the Leafs he will look to bring in some experienced veteren defensive defensemen either through trade or free agent signings.

Up front the Leafs are in a bit of a mess. The Leafs are middle of the pack offensively but much of that offense came in the first 4-6 weeks of the season. For the past month or so the Leafs offense has mostly sputtered and several offensive players have had very poor seasons (i.e. Blake, Tucker, Wellwood in particular). In Sundin he has a top level center but an aging one who is an unrestricted free agent at the end of the year. The only other somewhat significant offensive threat this season has been Nik Antropov who is experiencing a true break out season (now that he is healthy). Furthermore the powerplay has been horrific and desperately needs some help.

So, where might Fletcher go from here. In the press conference to announce his hiring he said something to the effect of ‘Mats Sundin will be remembered as one of the best Leafs ever and the Leafs have to do what is right for him.’ When questioned about that and whether the Leafs really should do what is best for the Leafs he backed off of it a little and said that what he means was that because Sundin has a no trade clause Sundin is really in the drivers seat. But one could still read that as he isn’t going to push Sundin to waive his no trade clause and instead might look to re-sign him if that is what Sundin prefers. The other day I made a case for keeping Sundin and sign him to a two year contract extension. My gut tells me that Fletcher is inclined to do just that unless Sundin doesn’t want to return to the Leafs or isn’t interested in playing in the NHL next year but neither of those appear to be the case. So, it would not surprise me to see the Leafs keeping Sundin for another year or two year contract extension. He is still a top level player so why not.

With that important decision being made Fletcher will look to rebuild the rest of the lineup. The problem is, most of the players are signed for next season and beyond and a few of them have no trade clauses. That means rebuilding the Leafs is going to require some creativity. The first think Fletcher will likely look at doing is moving one of his offensive defensemen with big contracts. Specifically that will mean either McCabe or Kubina. From a budget stand point McCabe is probably the guy he would prefer to trade but with McCabe’s no trade clause, his cap hit, and his current injury that will be more difficult to do. Speculation is McCabe would probably only waive his no-trade clause to go closer to his wife’s home in New York or closer to his home in western Canada. Luckily enough the New York Rangers are looking for an offensive defenseman so maybe there is a fit. The Rangers also have ample cap space beyond this season. If such a trade took place the Leafs would probably need to take some salary back for this current season so you could either see veteren defensvie defenseman Marek Malik (and history shows Fletcher likes this kind of player) or struggling 27 year old defenseman Paul Mara. Both of these players are unrestricted free agents this upcoming summer so they will be given an opportunity to earn a new contract for next year.

The New York Islanders might be another possible fit for McCabe but whether McCabe would waive his no trade clause to go to another weak franchise is questionable. But the Islanders have the cap space to be able to fit him and and with McCabe’s reducing ‘real’ salary for the last couple years of his contract (his real salary will be well below his cap hit) he might be a perfect fit for a team like the Islanders who have cap space but aren’t likely wanting to spend to the cap.

If trading McCabe is a no go then the next step might be to trading Kubina. Kubina is actually having a pretty good season and could be attractive to a team looking to add an experience defenseman for their cup run and for the next couple years. He is only 30 years old so he could be quite attractive to several teams. The Rangers are one but I also would look to the Chicago Blackhawks. Blackhawks GM Dave Tallon has stated on several times that he is looking for a veteren offensive minded defenseman who can help the team both this year and in the future. The Blackhawks have the cap space and rumours were they were looking at Mathieu Schneider when the Ducks were looking to free cap space for Niedermayer. Kubina might be the kind of defenseman they are looking for.

How much the Leafs get back for either McCabe or Kubina is hard to say. It all depends on whether there is a bidding war or not for their services. But the most important thing is to add some salary cap space for Fletcher to make other moves. My gut tells me Fletcher will find a taker for one of those guys freeing up at least $5 million in cap space.

The Leafs have a couple of other players signed for next year that they probably don’t want to keep around. Mark Bell and Andrew Raycroft. I also don’t think there are many takers for these two players so either the Leafs will have to buy them out and take the cap hit or demote them to the AHL or undertake some other creative venture with them. And this is where I think things get interesting.

Tampa is desperate for goaltending. Tampa has Dan Boyle it would really like to re-sign. Tampa doesn’t have a lot of self-imposed budget space to re-sign Boyle and acquire a quality goalie. So let’s get creative. As I mentioned above evidence is that Fletcher like building depth at the center ice position and Tampa has an expensive, relatively young, center iceman named Brad Richards that might suit Fletcher’s desires and freeing Tampa from his salary would allow them to re-sign Dan Boyle. The Leafs also have a pretty good prospect goalie in Justin Pogge that may be stuck behind Vesa Toskala on the depth chart in Toronto. So here is the pitch Fletcher can make to Tampa GM Jay Feaster:

Mr. Feaster. Have I got a deal for you. I understand you have Dan Boyle that you want to re-sign but may not have the money to re-sign him. I also notice that you are still having goaltending issues based on the 8 goals your team gave up to the Senators last night. So, here is what I am willing to do for you. I am willing to send you our prospect goalie Justin Pogge for your expensive centerman Brad Richards. I am also willing to send you a young center in Kyle Wellwood to help you fill the hole that was created with the loss of Brad Richards. The only caveat is you have to take the salaries of Mark Bell and/or Andrew Raycroft which you can in turn buy out next summer if you so choose. In the end you get a young goalie of the future, a solid two-way young centerman and you get to keep top defenseman Dan Boyle for a talented Brad Richards but whose contract is hurting your ability to fill out your roster.

Their may need to be more players in the mix going either way and maybe Wellwood needs to get upgraded to Stajan or something but the essense of the deal is the Leafs get a young center entering his prime and the future centerman for the Leafs once Mats Sundin does move on. They also rid themselves of some unnecessary salaries and their mainly just give up Justin Pogge who is stuck behind Toskala at the moment and may in fact not be needed by the franchise at this point in time. For the Leafs, Brad Richards is a very good playmaking center and is probably a better fit for Jason Blake than Mats Sundin as Sundin is more of a puck control, dig the puck out of the corners player and is a better match to play with a guy like Antropov who plays a similar style. The hope would be that Sundin-Antropov would form a solid top duo and Richards-Blake would form a solid second line.

Now I know many of you will look at Richards stats this year and say, why do we want another vastly over paid, under achieving player. Well, Richards has skill. He is expensive but he has first line center skill but that isn’t being used to optimal levels when he is playing on the second line with Jan Hlavac as his primary winger. He should do much better with Blake on his wing. He is also a proven playoff performer with 18 goals, 47 points in 45 career playoff games and at age 27 is entering the prime of his career. The added benefit of the above trade is to keep Dan Boyle off the trade deadline trade market possibly making the demand for McCabe and/or Kubina greater.

From a salary standpoint you could probably bring back Sundin and acquire Richards just by ridding yourself of McCabe or Kubina, Bell and Raycroft but you still won’t have a lot of flexibility come summer free agent season. So it is likely that Fletcher will have to get rid of one or more of Tucker, Ponikarovsky, and maybe the other of McCabe or Kubina. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tucker go to a team looking for a veteren with playoff experience. Edmonton has been rumoured to be interested in Tucker for a few years now so that might be a possible destination though as much for the next few years as it would be for this season.

As far as prospects go there will likely be a spot for one or two young forwards in addition to Tlusty. The Leafs have a very good Russian prospect in Nikolai Kulemin who should be joining the Leafs next season. Kulemin is a goal scoring and somewhat fiesty left winger and should find a spot on the Leafs second or third line. Forwards Darryl Boyce, Kris Newbury, Robbie Earl, and John Mitchell will all have opportunities to find 3rd and 4th line duty for the Leafs as well.

When all is done you could see a lineup like this next season:

Antropov-Sundin-Steen
Ponikarovsky-Richards-Blake
Kulemin-Stajan-Tlusty
Kilger-Devereaux-Boyce
Newbury-Earl

Kaberle-Kubina
Gill-Veteren defensive defenseman
White-Stralman
Colaiacovo

Toskala-Veteren backup

Of course, I could be completely wrong and it will look completely different but hey, it is fun speculating. Thoughts anyone?