May 13th, 2008 by Steve
Signing players to long term deals is a risky proposition. Even more so when the contract is guaranteed. Since the onset of the cap era in the NHL, a number of franchises have quickly moved to “lock up” their core assets for the forseeable future by signing them to deals over 5 years in length. While it is admittedly unlikely that a player will suffer from a severe decline in skill over that period in time, nothing prevents the player from suffering chronic injury or not developing in the way the club predicts.

The New York Islanders, and Garth Snow in particular, may have started the trend by signing Rick DiPietro to a 15 year deal, and signing Trent Hunter to a long term contract late this past season. Over the course of the off season the NY Rangers went big in signing Chris Drury and Scott Gomez to huge contracts for 8 years, and then signed Lundqvist and Tyutin to lengthy deals during the regular season. Philadelphia followed suit with Mike Richards, Kimmo Timonen, Scott Hartnell, and Daniel Briere, while Washington made Alexander Ovechkin a rich man that is going to get richer for a while yet. Ottawa is happy to have Dany Heatley, and Jason Spezza going forward, along with Mike Fisher. Pittsburgh has tried to prevent the hydra they’ve got growing in their locker room from getting out of control by signing Sidney Crosby, and Ryan Whitney to long term contracts.
Elsewhere in the Eastern Conference: Buffalo has signed Thomas Vanek, Derek Roy, and Jochen Hecht for the long term; Florida has signed Nathan Horton, Stephen Weiss, and Bryan Allen; New Jersey is going to hold on to Patrik Elias, Marty Brodeur, Dainius Zubrus, and Colin White, representing a solid veteran core they can build young production around;
Out West we can see: Anaheim has locked up Chris Kunitz and Ryan Getzlaf to long term deals; Calgary has Iginla, Sarich, Kiprusoff, Regher, and Phaneuf locked in; Chicago has Patrick Sharp signed to a lengthy deal; Dallas has signed Morrow and Ribiero long term; Detroit is going to hold on to Datsyuk, Kronwall, and Rafalski; Edmonton is looking to keep Hemsky, Penner, and Souray (ouch… injury prone anyone?); LA has signed Visnovsky, and Dustin Brown for a good long time; Minnesota has keyed in their blue line of the future with Nick Schultz and Brent Burns signed up; Nashville has gone with a core group of forwards, signing JP Dumont, David Legwand, and (almost?) Martin Erat; Phoenix is only locked in with Shane Doan; San Jose will be holding on to Matt Carle and Milan Michalek for a while; St. Louis will be seeing a lot more of Barret Jackman and Brad Boyes; Tampa Bay can count on more and more and more of Dan Boyle.
Last on my list is Toronto. The Leafs have been painted as the class buffoons for handing out lengthy contracts like candy, to players who have yet to perform up to their price tags. Ironically, the Leafs are one of the few teams in the NHL that have 1 player or fewer locked in through the 2011-2012 season. Jason Blake was probably not the man to warrant such a contract. Especially if you compare him to the other players around the league who have been handed that kind of security.
A couple of points I find most interesting are the following:
1) If goalies are so important to a team’s ability to win, why are there only 4 goalies with contracts extending into 2012 or beyond in the NHL? Yes, Brodeur, Kiprusoff, DiPietro, and Lundqvist are all top net minders, for both their teams, and their countries (being the best goalie a national program has seems to correlate here), but should we expect Roberto Luongo, Tomas Vokoun, Marty Turco, J.S. Giguere etc. to garner such long term deals in the future? I don’t know if that will be the case. Considering how valuable goalies are considered to be, one would think they would disproportionately be the players being locked into long term deals. 4 of the 56 long term deals amounts to 7% of the total. Considering there were almost 900 players to see ice time in the NHL this past season, roughly 50 of which were goaltenders, or 5.6%. That means the proportion of the long term deals signed by goalies is VERY slightly higher than the total number of goalies in the league.
2) The West and the East are going in different directions with the plan of signing players long term. Both conferences have over 25 players signed to longer deals. The distinction is in the positions that appear to have value. 3 goalies are locked in in the East, while only 1 is locked up in the West. Only 5 D men are locked up in the East, but in the West there are 12 cemented in, and 5 of those are split between 2 teams (Calgary and Minnesota). The East is mainly focused on their forwards, with 19 of them tied in for the long haul, as opposed to the 16 locked up in the West.
Obviously the East is preoccupied with Offense and Goaltending, without any sign of efforts to sign up solid D men. The West is more balanced, though given the number of D men in the league, there is obviously a disproportionate focus on Defenders in the Western Conference. This likely has a lot to do with the discrepancy observed in the quality of play in each conference. Superior leagues are typically superior defensively. If you add to this the fact that Scott Niedermayer, Chris Pronger, Mathieu Schneider, and Niklas Lidstrom aren’t included in this list… it becomes abundantly clear why the West is dominating. The East is compensating for it’s weak D by signing top notch goalies… and it may not be working very well.
This brings me to my final point - mistakes. Some of the players listed above are obviously going to be sinkholes of the first order. Sheldon Souray is alarmingly injury prone, and horrible from a defensive standpoint. How Edmonton can justify paying him for the next 4+ seasons is beyond me. If the increased number of these deals pushes more teams to follow suit, there will certainly be more of them. Fortunately for Toronto fans, their worst mistakes are going to be a thing of the past in the relatively near future. The mistaken forays of JFJ into the world of contract negotiation, where he locked in Bryan McCabe, Jason Blake, and Darcy Tucker for lengthy terms, and over paying in the process - should be done away with by the incoming GM.
Players should only be signed long term if they display future upside, or have been consistently performing at a high level for a lengthy period of time already. Most of the players signed to such deals exhibit such characteristics. The fact that Jason Blake had 1 season of 40 goals; Bryan McCabe had been shown to be a defensive liability ever since losing his “can-opener” maneuver; and Darcy Tucker has consistently proven he lacks defensive polish to go with his inability to produce more than 5 to 10 goals at even strength in a season, all should have rang alarm bells in the minds of management and outside observers. Basing these long term deals on short term results is obviously going to leave GMs open to criticism.
JFJ followed a decent formula in his allocation of resources towards the Defensive Ranks, he just miscalculated in the players he devoted his energies to. Pavel Kubina, Tomas Kaberle, Hal Gill, and Bryan McCabe looks good on paper, but McCabe eats up a disproportionate amount given his defensive miscues, and he and Kubina basically fill the same role on the squad. Too many cooks in the kitchen comes to mind as an analogy. The Leafs next GM needs to maintain salary cap flexibility while structuring a solid core the future team can build around. Currently the team lacks a true top line of the future. 2 top line forwards, and 2 top D, should be enough to keep the fans happy in Leaf land down the line. Now to start looking for the key pieces of this puzzle.
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